Football Drafting and Developing QBs

MagicHef · 08:37 AM

Some may remember my earlier thread about DTs and DE/OLBs. This one should be more interesting, due to the QBness of it. I did the same for QBs, using data from PFF to analyse the typical development of a QB as well as the expected return from a draft pick spent on a QB. Here is development:

Pretty steady climb through 12 years. Basically all the ridiculous waves on the right are thanks to Favre.

Here are snaps per year:

I'm a little surprised that rookies take more snaps than any other group.

Here is skill (vertical) vs draft position (horizontal). Blue dots are draft picks, the dark green, light green, white, pink, and red lines are the 90th, 75th, 50th, 25th, and 10th percentile respectively.

Huh. Drafting a QB late looks about the same as picking up a UDFA. This led me to make another chart. I arbitrarily decided that a QB in the 95th percentile was elite, 85th percentile was good, and 50th percentile was average. I then decided to determine the percent likelihood of drafting a QB in each round that fell into each category.

In case that doesn't make sense, I'll explain:

A QB drafted in the first round has a:

17.5% chance of being Elite
37.5% chance of being Good
50% chance of being at least average.

Second round:
0% Elite
6.25% Good
37.5% Average

Third round:
0% Elite
13.3% Good
53.3% Average

Fourth round:
0% Elite
8.3% Good
41.7% Average

Fifth round:
0% Elite
0% Good
14.3% Average

Sixth Round:
0% Elite
0% Good
50% Average

Seventh Round:
3.2% Elite (Tom Brady)
3.2% Good
45.2% Average

UDFA
0% Elite
7.7% Good
73.1% Average

My conclusion: If you do not draft a QB in the first round, there is no point drafting one at all. Just pick up a UDFA.

Dayze · 02-01-2013, 08:03 AM

interesting.

hmm.

CaliforniaChief · 02-01-2013, 08:06 AM

Wasn't Brady a 6th rounder?

CaliforniaChief · 02-01-2013, 08:07 AM

That said, pretty damning numbers for the true fan.

Deberg_1990 · 02-01-2013, 08:08 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by CaliforniaChief

Wasn't Brady a 6th rounder?

MagicHef · 02-01-2013, 08:10 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by CaliforniaChief

Wasn't Brady a 6th rounder?

Yeah, I went by draft pick # (Brady was 199) then put the first 32 in round 1, etc. Compensatory selections pushed that pick back, basically.

AussieChiefsFan · 02-01-2013, 08:11 AM

Fascinating.

O.city · 02-01-2013, 08:18 AM

The best place/chance to get a franchise Qb is the first round.

Who knew?

This is new info that has never been said on CP.

Non sarcastic though, great work Magic. Ok with you if I spam this on Twitter to the masses?

MagicHef · 02-01-2013, 08:20 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by O.city

The best place/chance to get a franchise Qb is the first round.

Who knew?

This is new info that has never been said on CP.

Non sarcastic though, great work Magic. Ok with you if I spam this on Twitter to the masses?

Go ahead

AussieChiefsFan · 02-01-2013, 08:31 AM

Probably should show this to some facebookers too.

MagicHef · 02-01-2013, 08:38 AM

Oops, some of the percentages were a bit off. It's fixed now.

**ChiefGator** · 02-01-2013, 08:57 AM

Awesome! Thanks for doing this!

Coogs · 02-01-2013, 09:29 AM

So Brees (2nd round) is just average to good?

**Pestilence** · 02-01-2013, 09:35 AM

Skipped and just read this.

Quote:

My conclusion: If you do not draft a QB in the first round, there is no point drafting one at all. Just pick up a UDFA.

Three7s · 02-01-2013, 09:38 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Coogs

So Brees (2nd round) is just average to good?

Don't forget Joe Montana, whom was drafted in the 3rd round I believe.

02-01-2013, 08:00 AM
MagicHef The Seated Villain Join Date: Apr 2007 Location: Fort Collins Casino cash: $249647	Drafting and Developing QBs Some may remember my earlier thread about DTs and DE/OLBs. This one should be more interesting, due to the QBness of it. I did the same for QBs, using data from PFF to analyse the typical development of a QB as well as the expected return from a draft pick spent on a QB. Here is development: Pretty steady climb through 12 years. Basically all the ridiculous waves on the right are thanks to Favre. Here are snaps per year: I'm a little surprised that rookies take more snaps than any other group. Here is skill (vertical) vs draft position (horizontal). Blue dots are draft picks, the dark green, light green, white, pink, and red lines are the 90th, 75th, 50th, 25th, and 10th percentile respectively. Huh. Drafting a QB late looks about the same as picking up a UDFA. This led me to make another chart. I arbitrarily decided that a QB in the 95th percentile was elite, 85th percentile was good, and 50th percentile was average. I then decided to determine the percent likelihood of drafting a QB in each round that fell into each category. In case that doesn't make sense, I'll explain: A QB drafted in the first round has a: 17.5% chance of being Elite 37.5% chance of being Good 50% chance of being at least average. Second round: 0% Elite 6.25% Good 37.5% Average Third round: 0% Elite 13.3% Good 53.3% Average Fourth round: 0% Elite 8.3% Good 41.7% Average Fifth round: 0% Elite 0% Good 14.3% Average Sixth Round: 0% Elite 0% Good 50% Average Seventh Round: 3.2% Elite (Tom Brady) 3.2% Good 45.2% Average UDFA 0% Elite 7.7% Good 73.1% Average My conclusion: If you do not draft a QB in the first round, there is no point drafting one at all. Just pick up a UDFA. Last edited by MagicHef; 02-01-2013 at 08:37 AM..
Posts: 3,527

02-01-2013, 08:03 AM	#2
Dayze Poop Join Date: Nov 2003 Location: Overland Park Casino cash: $1177563	interesting. hmm. __________________ Life is 99% inspiration, 1% Perspiration, and 1% Attention to Detial.
Posts: 15,413

02-01-2013, 08:06 AM	#3
CaliforniaChief Thank You Clark! Join Date: Jan 2009 Location: So Cal Casino cash: $7702531	Wasn't Brady a 6th rounder? __________________ "Chiefs fans aren’t having it." -Jason Whitlock
Posts: 9,122

02-01-2013, 08:07 AM	#4
CaliforniaChief Thank You Clark! Join Date: Jan 2009 Location: So Cal Casino cash: $7702531	That said, pretty damning numbers for the true fan. __________________ "Chiefs fans aren’t having it." -Jason Whitlock
Posts: 9,122

02-01-2013, 08:11 AM	#7
AussieChiefsFan ¡Mayday! .... All Day ... Join Date: Mar 2012 Location: Sydney, Australia Casino cash: $26022694	Fascinating. __________________
Posts: 7,346

02-01-2013, 08:18 AM	#8
O.city MVP Join Date: Jul 2009 Casino cash: $84758	The best place/chance to get a franchise Qb is the first round. Who knew? This is new info that has never been said on CP. Non sarcastic though, great work Magic. Ok with you if I spam this on Twitter to the masses?
Posts: 20,018

02-01-2013, 08:31 AM	#10
AussieChiefsFan ¡Mayday! .... All Day ... Join Date: Mar 2012 Location: Sydney, Australia Casino cash: $26022694	Probably should show this to some facebookers too. __________________
Posts: 7,346

02-01-2013, 08:38 AM	#11
MagicHef The Seated Villain Join Date: Apr 2007 Location: Fort Collins Casino cash: $249647	Oops, some of the percentages were a bit off. It's fixed now.
Posts: 3,527

02-01-2013, 08:57 AM	#12
ChiefGator Go Women Folk! Join Date: Apr 2001 Location: Northcentral Florida Casino cash: $27095	Awesome! Thanks for doing this! __________________ - Mark
Posts: 2,382

02-01-2013, 09:29 AM	#13
Coogs MVP Join Date: Aug 2000 Location: Northern Kansas Casino cash: $72060	So Brees (2nd round) is just average to good?
Posts: 17,111

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