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Old 02-01-2013, 08:00 AM  
MagicHef MagicHef is online now
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Drafting and Developing QBs

Some may remember my earlier thread about DTs and DE/OLBs. This one should be more interesting, due to the QBness of it. I did the same for QBs, using data from PFF to analyse the typical development of a QB as well as the expected return from a draft pick spent on a QB. Here is development:



Pretty steady climb through 12 years. Basically all the ridiculous waves on the right are thanks to Favre.

Here are snaps per year:



I'm a little surprised that rookies take more snaps than any other group.

Here is skill (vertical) vs draft position (horizontal). Blue dots are draft picks, the dark green, light green, white, pink, and red lines are the 90th, 75th, 50th, 25th, and 10th percentile respectively.



Huh. Drafting a QB late looks about the same as picking up a UDFA. This led me to make another chart. I arbitrarily decided that a QB in the 95th percentile was elite, 85th percentile was good, and 50th percentile was average. I then decided to determine the percent likelihood of drafting a QB in each round that fell into each category.



In case that doesn't make sense, I'll explain:

A QB drafted in the first round has a:

17.5% chance of being Elite
37.5% chance of being Good
50% chance of being at least average.

Second round:
0% Elite
6.25% Good
37.5% Average

Third round:
0% Elite
13.3% Good
53.3% Average

Fourth round:
0% Elite
8.3% Good
41.7% Average

Fifth round:
0% Elite
0% Good
14.3% Average

Sixth Round:
0% Elite
0% Good
50% Average

Seventh Round:
3.2% Elite (Tom Brady)
3.2% Good
45.2% Average

UDFA
0% Elite
7.7% Good
73.1% Average

My conclusion: If you do not draft a QB in the first round, there is no point drafting one at all. Just pick up a UDFA.

Last edited by MagicHef; 02-01-2013 at 08:37 AM..
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Old 02-01-2013, 09:40 AM   #16
MagicHef MagicHef is online now
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Coogs View Post
So Brees (2nd round) is just average to good?
Quote:
Originally Posted by MagicHef View Post
Yeah, I went by draft pick # (Brady was 199) then put the first 32 in round 1, etc. Compensatory selections pushed that pick back, basically.
32nd pick is a first rounder now.
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Old 02-01-2013, 09:44 AM   #17
MagicHef MagicHef is online now
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Three7s View Post
Don't forget Joe Montana, whom was drafted in the 3rd round I believe.
PFF's data only goes back to 2008. Montana stopped playing in 1994.

Also not included:
Otto Graham
Y.A. Tittle
Johnny Unitas
Bart Starr

etc.
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Old 02-01-2013, 09:47 AM   #18
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Quote:
Originally Posted by MagicHef View Post
PFF's data only goes back to 2008. Montana stopped playing in 1994.

Also not included:
Otto Graham
Y.A. Tittle
Johnny Unitas
Bart Starr

etc.
Plus I don't really care about draft data from way back in the day.

I'm more concerned about how you get those elite QBs by today's standards.
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