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Old 02-14-2013, 07:14 AM  
Direckshun Direckshun is offline
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The austerity policies of the past two years is threatening a double-dip recession.

It's time for some of those among us to come to two uncomfortable truths on this forum.

1. The Obama administration has overseen the sharpest decline in deficit spending just about every single one of us have seen in our lives, thanks in part to austerity demanded by Tea Party Republicans.

2. This radical reduction in the deficit is risking to stop our recovery growth dead in its tracks.

I've made this point over and over and over and over on this forum: deficit reduction retards growth.

So when you slash into the deficit as severely as we have, you will slow growth with the same severity. And what do you know? We ended up with negative growth in 2012's fourth quarter. Two quarters in a row, of course, is the legal definition of a recession (assuming the original assessment of 2012's 4th quarter holds where it is).

We've learned nothing from Europe, which has seen huge unemployment numbers, languishing recoveries, and double- and triple-dip recessions because they embraced austerity during a financial crisis while we embraced (albeit limited) stimulus.

In comes the Tea Party, and by the conclusion of the past Congressional cycle of radical austerity policy, we're now on the verge of a double-dip recession.

This is not random, folks. This is happening for that specific reason.

http://news.investors.com/blogs-capi...icit-hawks.htm

The Deficit Chart That Should Embarrass Budget Hawks
By Jed Graham
Posted 02/12/2013 08:05 AM ET



Here's a pretty important fact that virtually everyone in Washington seems oblivious to: The federal deficit has never fallen as fast as it's falling now without a coincident recession.

To be specific, CBO expects the deficit to shrink from 8.7% of GDP in fiscal 2011 to 5.3% in fiscal 2013 if the sequester takes effect and to 5.5% if it doesn't. Either way, the two-year deficit reduction — equal to 3.4% of the economy if automatic budget cuts are triggered and 3.2% if not — would stand far above any other fiscal tightening since World War II.

Until the aftermath of the Great Recession, there were only three such periods in which the deficit shrank by a cumulative 2% of GDP or more. The 1960-61 and 1969-70 episodes both helped bring about a recession.

Far steeper deficit cuts during the demobilization from World War II and in 1937-38 both precipitated economic reversals.

Now the deficit is shrinking about 50% faster than it did during the booming late 1990s, when the jobless rate was falling south of 5% and tax revenues were soaring — without tax hikes.

That's not to say that a recession is in the cards now, as the Federal Reserve applies its might to keep housing on a recovery path and helps propel the stock market higher. But growth is likely to be disappointingly weak yet again.

The Congressional Budget Office projects just 100,000 jobs will be added per month this year, the jobless rate will remain stuck around 8% and the economy will grow 1.4% if the sequester takes effect, but that may be too optimistic.

There was certainly no good economic reason for policymakers to risk the hit to growth that came with the roughly $200 billion fiscal cliff tax hike. Now they risk compounding the fiscal drag with poorly targeted budget cuts.

History suggests that there's little good to be gotten from cutting the deficit much faster than 1% of GDP per year. That's especially true at the moment, given the nature of our related demographic and budget challenges.

Both of those challenges suggest that growth should be our paramount concern, far ahead of near-term deficit reduction, even as we work to improve the intermediate-term budget outlook.

As far as the budget goes, it makes no sense that Congress remains focused on cutting discretionary spending. The danger clearly comes from entitlement programs, particularly health care, and the prospect that interest on the debt will spiral if we don't better align spending promises with revenues. These are programs that need to be reformed gradually and with great care, but there's no good reason to delay.

As for demographics, this was supposed to be the decade in which the leading edge of the Baby Boom generation began to ease out of the workforce and pass the baton to the next generations. Instead, there are not enough jobs to go around to allow for a seamless transition and Baby Boomers are hanging on longer as they try to recover from the financial damage inflicted by the housing bust.

There has been plenty of economic pain to go around, but younger workers have borne the brunt of three crises — jobs, housing and student loans. Since January 2000, the number of full-time jobs is up 10.5 million among workers 55 and up but down close to 8 million among the under-55 population.

In the speeches of Washington politicians, deficit reduction is all about being fair to the young and not leaving the next generation with ungainly debts. That might be true if deficit reduction came through smart changes to entitlement programs, but that's not the case.

In effect, the overly rapid fiscal retrenchment is giving younger workers a deal that none of them should want: We'll slash the deficit now, so that you will have a harder time getting good jobs and paying back your personal debts. We'll cut critical government spending on education, infrastructure and science so that new college graduates for whom job prospects remain discouraging can put their futures on hold for a little longer.
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Old 02-14-2013, 05:02 PM   #31
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I think that statement by Obama is going to haunt him and his legacy. It was his "No New taxes" moment.
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Old 02-14-2013, 05:26 PM   #32
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I swear to god I read an article last week on the BBC network that England entering its triple dip recession. Some are claiming its there. Almost all say they are a month or two from another one. It's not a far fetched claim.
When it hasn't happened it is a far fetched claim.

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Thats BS. Do your scientific research. Ask around and see if people think the recession ended before Jan. 2008? You are better than just spouting a bunch of propaganda.
You have your dates and facts wrong. Obama became president at the end of January 2009. The recession ended in June 2009, long before the stimulus kicked in.
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But the bottom line question remains..... Do you feel we should have used austerity and went through a double dip recession and almost a third recession and still can't see a guaranteed recovery? That was a better path?
Obama's got his sequester and increases in taxes on the wealthy in exchange for putting off spending cuts.

It appears that was a lie or a bad idea in the first place.
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Old 02-14-2013, 05:27 PM   #33
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Originally Posted by mnchiefsguy View Post
I think that statement by Obama is going to haunt him and his legacy. It was his "No New taxes" moment.
Except when Bush said "No new taxes" it cost him the election. Obama doesn't have any more elections to win.
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Old 02-14-2013, 05:27 PM   #34
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Ask around and see if people think the recession ended before Jan. 2008? It officially ended in June 2009. A year and a half into Obama's polices.
Huh??? He took office Jan 2009, that's like 6 months. A year and a half? Hell, the porkulous bill hadn't even started putting $$$ into the economy yet. So, what Obama policies got us out of the recession 6 months after his inauguration?
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Old 02-14-2013, 05:29 PM   #35
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Except when Bush said "No new taxes" it cost him the election. Obama doesn't have any more elections to win.
True...but "No New Taxes" has haunted Bush's legacy since he left, I think the "not a dime" statement will do the same. Does anyone really believe we can expand all of that federal spending and have it not add anything to the deficit?
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Old 02-14-2013, 05:36 PM   #36
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Originally Posted by KC Dan View Post
Huh??? He took office Jan 2009, that's like 6 months. A year and a half? Hell, the porkulous bill hadn't even started putting $$$ into the economy yet. So, what Obama policies got us out of the recession 6 months after his inauguration?
A recession is measured by shrinkage in GDP over consecutive quarters.

That streak was snapped halfway through June, thanks in large part to three and a half months of stimulus spending.
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Old 02-14-2013, 05:37 PM   #37
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Originally Posted by Direckshun View Post
Stop right there, Fallacy Express.

Deficit reduction does retard growth -- all evidence suggests that.

Which means you should only practice it when the economy is strong enough to withstand it.

Right now, it is not.



Not remotely.

There is a limit to debt, but right now we are light years away from it.

We are borrowing money for less than zero percent. Because as weak as our economy is, just about everybody else's is struggling worse and they desperately want the security of our bonds.

I'm merely pointing out that there's an inflection point. You (and Krugman) could be right that we haven't reached it yet. Other ecomomists point to the 90% of GDP mark as the inflection point historically, and we're there now. Something to consider.
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Old 02-14-2013, 05:43 PM   #38
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Originally Posted by Direckshun View Post
A recession is measured by shrinkage in GDP over consecutive quarters.

That streak was snapped halfway through June, thanks in large part to three and a half months of stimulus spending.
The money hadn't even went out the door yet
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Old 02-14-2013, 05:45 PM   #39
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You have your dates and facts wrong. Obama became president at the end of January 2009. The recession ended in June 2009, long before the stimulus kicked in.
Sorry about the dates my bad. That being said economist's maintain that the stimulus and the Obama financial policies ended the recession. Again we are debating the official end of the recession. I don't know of anyone personally that thinks we recovered in 2009.
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Obama's got his sequester and increases in taxes on the wealthy in exchange for putting off spending cuts.

It appears that was a lie or a bad idea in the first place.
Huh????? You still haven't answered my question. Because this is important. I respect your opinion and wonder how you think England's path was better than our path.

Do you feel we should have used austerity and went through a double dip recession and almost a third recession and still can't see a guaranteed recovery? That was a better path?
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If it's effective, who are you, me, or anybody else to call it abuse? I worked with a guy back in Moberly who would shove a finger up his son's ass each time he had anything worse than a C on his report card. If he came home with 2 D's and an F, that's 3 fingers (and this was a big dude). Does that sound hideous and disgusting? Absolutely. Did the kid ever get anything worse than a C after this rule was implemented? Not a chance.

I'm not saying it's morally right or wrong, but does it make the child because of it? Think about that for a second.
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Old 02-14-2013, 05:47 PM   #40
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I'm merely pointing out that there's an inflection point. You (and Krugman) could be right that we haven't reached it yet. Other ecomomists point to the 90% of GDP mark as the inflection point historically, and we're there now. Something to consider.
http://www.nytimes.com/2012/01/02/op...debt.html?_r=0

Nobody Understands Debt
By PAUL KRUGMAN
Published: January 1, 2012

In 2011, as in 2010, America was in a technical recovery but continued to suffer from disastrously high unemployment. And through most of 2011, as in 2010, almost all the conversation in Washington was about something else: the allegedly urgent issue of reducing the budget deficit.

This misplaced focus said a lot about our political culture, in particular about how disconnected Congress is from the suffering of ordinary Americans. But it also revealed something else: when people in D.C. talk about deficits and debt, by and large they have no idea what theyíre talking about ó and the people who talk the most understand the least.

Perhaps most obviously, the economic ďexpertsĒ on whom much of Congress relies have been repeatedly, utterly wrong about the short-run effects of budget deficits. People who get their economic analysis from the likes of the Heritage Foundation have been waiting ever since President Obama took office for budget deficits to send interest rates soaring. Any day now!

And while theyíve been waiting, those rates have dropped to historical lows. You might think that this would make politicians question their choice of experts ó that is, you might think that if you didnít know anything about our postmodern, fact-free politics.

But Washington isnít just confused about the short run; itís also confused about the long run. For while debt can be a problem, the way our politicians and pundits think about debt is all wrong, and exaggerates the problemís size.

Deficit-worriers portray a future in which weíre impoverished by the need to pay back money weíve been borrowing. They see America as being like a family that took out too large a mortgage, and will have a hard time making the monthly payments.

This is, however, a really bad analogy in at least two ways.

First, families have to pay back their debt. Governments donít ó all they need to do is ensure that debt grows more slowly than their tax base. The debt from World War II was never repaid; it just became increasingly irrelevant as the U.S. economy grew, and with it the income subject to taxation.

Second ó and this is the point almost nobody seems to get ó an over-borrowed family owes money to someone else; U.S. debt is, to a large extent, money we owe to ourselves.

This was clearly true of the debt incurred to win World War II. Taxpayers were on the hook for a debt that was significantly bigger, as a percentage of G.D.P., than debt today; but that debt was also owned by taxpayers, such as all the people who bought savings bonds. So the debt didnít make postwar America poorer. In particular, the debt didnít prevent the postwar generation from experiencing the biggest rise in incomes and living standards in our nationís history.

But isnít this time different? Not as much as you think.

Itís true that foreigners now hold large claims on the United States, including a fair amount of government debt. But every dollarís worth of foreign claims on America is matched by 89 centsí worth of U.S. claims on foreigners. And because foreigners tend to put their U.S. investments into safe, low-yield assets, America actually earns more from its assets abroad than it pays to foreign investors. If your image is of a nation thatís already deep in hock to the Chinese, youíve been misinformed. Nor are we heading rapidly in that direction.

Now, the fact that federal debt isnít at all like a mortgage on Americaís future doesnít mean that the debt is harmless. Taxes must be levied to pay the interest, and you donít have to be a right-wing ideologue to concede that taxes impose some cost on the economy, if nothing else by causing a diversion of resources away from productive activities into tax avoidance and evasion. But these costs are a lot less dramatic than the analogy with an overindebted family might suggest.

And thatís why nations with stable, responsible governments ó that is, governments that are willing to impose modestly higher taxes when the situation warrants it ó have historically been able to live with much higher levels of debt than todayís conventional wisdom would lead you to believe. Britain, in particular, has had debt exceeding 100 percent of G.D.P. for 81 of the last 170 years. When Keynes was writing about the need to spend your way out of a depression, Britain was deeper in debt than any advanced nation today, with the exception of Japan.

Of course, America, with its rabidly antitax conservative movement, may not have a government that is responsible in this sense. But in that case the fault lies not in our debt, but in ourselves.

So yes, debt matters. But right now, other things matter more. We need more, not less, government spending to get us out of our unemployment trap. And the wrongheaded, ill-informed obsession with debt is standing in the way.
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Old 02-14-2013, 05:49 PM   #41
Direckshun Direckshun is offline
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The money hadn't even went out the door yet
Come again?
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Old 02-14-2013, 05:54 PM   #42
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Originally Posted by Direckshun View Post
http://www.nytimes.com/2012/01/02/op...debt.html?_r=0

Nobody Understands Debt
By PAUL KRUGMAN
Published: January 1, 2012

In 2011, as in 2010, America was in a technical recovery but continued to suffer from disastrously high unemployment. And through most of 2011, as in 2010, almost all the conversation in Washington was about something else: the allegedly urgent issue of reducing the budget deficit.
Repoblican:Krugman is a kennsington groupie who doesn't know anything about how an economy works.
Democrat: His economic theory has won numerous awards in the field of economics including the Nobel prize.
Republican: Communist controlled organizations. Just liberal biased against conservatives.
Democrat: Republicans have won the same award.
Republican: A stopped clock is right twice a day.
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If it's effective, who are you, me, or anybody else to call it abuse? I worked with a guy back in Moberly who would shove a finger up his son's ass each time he had anything worse than a C on his report card. If he came home with 2 D's and an F, that's 3 fingers (and this was a big dude). Does that sound hideous and disgusting? Absolutely. Did the kid ever get anything worse than a C after this rule was implemented? Not a chance.

I'm not saying it's morally right or wrong, but does it make the child because of it? Think about that for a second.
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Old 02-14-2013, 06:01 PM   #43
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"At the close of fiscal year 2009, agencies reported spending a little under $108 billion in ARRA (stimulus bill) funds about 1 percent higher than CBOs initial estimate"

"Half of the 2009 stimulus spending is attributable to two programs: $32 billion for Medicaid and $22 billion for unemployment insurance."

You can read the link and there were some tax breaks and other spending but that amount of spending was miniscule in regards to our economy. $107 billion through Sept 2009 is nada, nada. Now, if you want to talk about the Treasury's printing of money during this time having a greater effect, I'll give you that but the stimulus, no

http://www.cbo.gov/publication/24988
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Old 02-14-2013, 06:02 PM   #44
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We don't need any more stimulus. Once we start making the rich pay their fair share all our problems will be solved.
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Old 02-14-2013, 06:08 PM   #45
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Originally Posted by KC Dan View Post
"At the close of fiscal year 2009, agencies reported spending a little under $108 billion in ARRA (stimulus bill) funds about 1 percent higher than CBOs initial estimate"

"Half of the 2009 stimulus spending is attributable to two programs: $32 billion for Medicaid and $22 billion for unemployment insurance."

You can read the link and there were some tax breaks and other spending but that amount of spending was miniscule in regards to our economy. $107 billion through Sept 2009 is nada, nada. Now, if you want to talk about the Treasury's printing of money during this time having a greater effect, I'll give you that but the stimulus, no

http://www.cbo.gov/publication/24988
Your a businessman. It's also how the market "feels". People and business push some chips in when they think the environment is right. Obama's policies and stimulus created that climate.

No matter how you slice it or represent it, if you are out of the bubble and I know you yourself have independent thoughts, the stimulus was a rousing success. The facts are undeniable.
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Originally Posted by Bufkin View Post
If it's effective, who are you, me, or anybody else to call it abuse? I worked with a guy back in Moberly who would shove a finger up his son's ass each time he had anything worse than a C on his report card. If he came home with 2 D's and an F, that's 3 fingers (and this was a big dude). Does that sound hideous and disgusting? Absolutely. Did the kid ever get anything worse than a C after this rule was implemented? Not a chance.

I'm not saying it's morally right or wrong, but does it make the child because of it? Think about that for a second.
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