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Old 02-14-2013, 07:14 AM  
Direckshun Direckshun is offline
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The austerity policies of the past two years is threatening a double-dip recession.

It's time for some of those among us to come to two uncomfortable truths on this forum.

1. The Obama administration has overseen the sharpest decline in deficit spending just about every single one of us have seen in our lives, thanks in part to austerity demanded by Tea Party Republicans.

2. This radical reduction in the deficit is risking to stop our recovery growth dead in its tracks.

I've made this point over and over and over and over on this forum: deficit reduction retards growth.

So when you slash into the deficit as severely as we have, you will slow growth with the same severity. And what do you know? We ended up with negative growth in 2012's fourth quarter. Two quarters in a row, of course, is the legal definition of a recession (assuming the original assessment of 2012's 4th quarter holds where it is).

We've learned nothing from Europe, which has seen huge unemployment numbers, languishing recoveries, and double- and triple-dip recessions because they embraced austerity during a financial crisis while we embraced (albeit limited) stimulus.

In comes the Tea Party, and by the conclusion of the past Congressional cycle of radical austerity policy, we're now on the verge of a double-dip recession.

This is not random, folks. This is happening for that specific reason.

http://news.investors.com/blogs-capi...icit-hawks.htm

The Deficit Chart That Should Embarrass Budget Hawks
By Jed Graham
Posted 02/12/2013 08:05 AM ET



Here's a pretty important fact that virtually everyone in Washington seems oblivious to: The federal deficit has never fallen as fast as it's falling now without a coincident recession.

To be specific, CBO expects the deficit to shrink from 8.7% of GDP in fiscal 2011 to 5.3% in fiscal 2013 if the sequester takes effect and to 5.5% if it doesn't. Either way, the two-year deficit reduction — equal to 3.4% of the economy if automatic budget cuts are triggered and 3.2% if not — would stand far above any other fiscal tightening since World War II.

Until the aftermath of the Great Recession, there were only three such periods in which the deficit shrank by a cumulative 2% of GDP or more. The 1960-61 and 1969-70 episodes both helped bring about a recession.

Far steeper deficit cuts during the demobilization from World War II and in 1937-38 both precipitated economic reversals.

Now the deficit is shrinking about 50% faster than it did during the booming late 1990s, when the jobless rate was falling south of 5% and tax revenues were soaring — without tax hikes.

That's not to say that a recession is in the cards now, as the Federal Reserve applies its might to keep housing on a recovery path and helps propel the stock market higher. But growth is likely to be disappointingly weak yet again.

The Congressional Budget Office projects just 100,000 jobs will be added per month this year, the jobless rate will remain stuck around 8% and the economy will grow 1.4% if the sequester takes effect, but that may be too optimistic.

There was certainly no good economic reason for policymakers to risk the hit to growth that came with the roughly $200 billion fiscal cliff tax hike. Now they risk compounding the fiscal drag with poorly targeted budget cuts.

History suggests that there's little good to be gotten from cutting the deficit much faster than 1% of GDP per year. That's especially true at the moment, given the nature of our related demographic and budget challenges.

Both of those challenges suggest that growth should be our paramount concern, far ahead of near-term deficit reduction, even as we work to improve the intermediate-term budget outlook.

As far as the budget goes, it makes no sense that Congress remains focused on cutting discretionary spending. The danger clearly comes from entitlement programs, particularly health care, and the prospect that interest on the debt will spiral if we don't better align spending promises with revenues. These are programs that need to be reformed gradually and with great care, but there's no good reason to delay.

As for demographics, this was supposed to be the decade in which the leading edge of the Baby Boom generation began to ease out of the workforce and pass the baton to the next generations. Instead, there are not enough jobs to go around to allow for a seamless transition and Baby Boomers are hanging on longer as they try to recover from the financial damage inflicted by the housing bust.

There has been plenty of economic pain to go around, but younger workers have borne the brunt of three crises — jobs, housing and student loans. Since January 2000, the number of full-time jobs is up 10.5 million among workers 55 and up but down close to 8 million among the under-55 population.

In the speeches of Washington politicians, deficit reduction is all about being fair to the young and not leaving the next generation with ungainly debts. That might be true if deficit reduction came through smart changes to entitlement programs, but that's not the case.

In effect, the overly rapid fiscal retrenchment is giving younger workers a deal that none of them should want: We'll slash the deficit now, so that you will have a harder time getting good jobs and paying back your personal debts. We'll cut critical government spending on education, infrastructure and science so that new college graduates for whom job prospects remain discouraging can put their futures on hold for a little longer.
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Old 02-15-2013, 07:36 PM   #121
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Not for a very long time, if ever, I'd say. But that doesn't mean spending isn't falling and that we've been dealing with austerity the past two years, either.
Which do you think is the worst of two evils, austerity or never having an annual surplus in revenue dollars? Because with the latter you're claiming our debt will never be below what it is now. It will only grow.

And with interest rates near zero right now we still pay $400-$500 billion dollars a year just in interest. We basically put that much money in an incinerator and burn it. Imagine what we could do with that money. What will happen when the government can no longer keep interest rates artificially low?

The boogey man isn't austerity. The boogey man is any politician not willing to work towards lowering our debt. Right now.

Democrats know cutting spending will force the MSM to point out how bad things really have gotten.

The jig is up and the emperor has no clothes.
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Old 02-15-2013, 08:07 PM   #122
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Originally Posted by mlyonsd View Post
The boogey man isn't austerity.
Especially when it's an OUTRIGHT LIE to claim that the last two years have been anything remotely close to "austerity." The fact that Direckshun thinks that spending OVER a trillion dollars more than we bring in is "austerity" shows just how ****ed up he is.
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Old 02-15-2013, 08:20 PM   #123
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Originally Posted by AustinChief View Post
Especially when it's an OUTRIGHT LIE to claim that the last two years have been anything remotely close to "austerity." The fact that Direckshun thinks that spending OVER a trillion dollars more than we bring in is "austerity" shows just how ****ed up he is.
If anything it shows how ****ed up our entire economical and political environments are.

The piper is going to have to be paid. We need to decide if we want to let it kill us or not.
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Old 02-15-2013, 08:25 PM   #124
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While we have the child tax credit and earned income tax credit, I'd have to say we're not living in austerity.

The free money needs to ****in stop.
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Old 02-15-2013, 08:26 PM   #125
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Kinda funny though, so many right wing ****tards benefit from both of those tax benefits and they'd cry their eyes out if they were ended
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Old 02-15-2013, 08:35 PM   #126
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Originally Posted by Cannibal View Post
While we have the child tax credit and earned income tax credit, I'd have to say we're not living in austerity.

The free money needs to ****in stop.
True. And you're right it crosses all political boundaries. EVERYONE likes their "free" money.
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Old 02-16-2013, 11:27 PM   #127
Direckshun Direckshun is offline
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Originally Posted by AustinChief View Post
Ok, you have at least answered my question. You simply are this stupid.
Every time we talk, you remind me I'm stupid. It's getting old.

I'm stupid, I'm not retarded. I can remember I'm stupid.

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You don't get to count what he SAYS it will be this year until after it actually happens.
Sure I do. Unless there are dramatically different enforcement of taxing and/or spending, the law mandates a certain amount be collected and spent.

Obama walked into office with that number being a $1.2 trillion deficit (I looked it up since I was saying 1.3 and you were saying 1.1 -- the CBO estimated it at 1.2). That's what the government was scheduled to give out.

Now thanks to an improving economy and Obama policy, that number is now under $900 billion.
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Old 02-16-2013, 11:28 PM   #128
Direckshun Direckshun is offline
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Deficit reduction isn't the problem here. The deficit is.
Unemployment is.
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Old 02-16-2013, 11:29 PM   #129
Direckshun Direckshun is offline
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Originally Posted by mlyonsd View Post
They are trying to defend the Obama position of running away from the biggest problem facing America.
Swing and a miss.
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Old 02-16-2013, 11:29 PM   #130
Direckshun Direckshun is offline
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Originally Posted by Chief Faithful View Post
Amazing how Obama has this great record of decrease in deficit spending while every year the deficit grows at a greater rate than any other President in US history.
You're confusing deficit with debt.

Probably should have sat this one out, honestly.
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Old 02-17-2013, 06:55 AM   #131
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Originally Posted by Direckshun View Post
Swing and a miss.
No, I understand exactly what you're trying to sell here.

Obama's sequester was a political charade to kick spending cuts down the road past the 2012 election. Being reelected was more important that facing our debt problem.

Fast forward to after the election. Republicans face the writing on the wall and pass Obama's tax increases, thus dropping our entire debt problem right into Obama's lap. They did their part, now the spending side has to be addressed.

Obama's only game now to avoid spending cuts is to scare the public into believing how much a disaster his own sequester would be. It's funny and ironic to hear him, (and you), run away from something that was his idea in the first place.

And the only reason Obama is worried about how the economy would react to his own sequester is because he wants to turn the House around next year, especially since republicans can show they've given him what he asked for in tax increases. Again, not facing up to what our biggest problem is, the debt.

No, I didn't swing and miss. I think I hit it in the sweet spot.
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Old 02-17-2013, 11:45 AM   #132
Direckshun Direckshun is offline
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Originally Posted by mlyonsd View Post
Fast forward to after the election. Republicans face the writing on the wall and pass Obama's tax increases, thus dropping our entire debt problem right into Obama's lap. They did their part, now the spending side has to be addressed.
Which Obama and the Democrats are addressing. They also believe that you can further deficit reduction by limiting or eliminating many tax breaks that multi-billion dollar industries and the top 1% wealthy take advantage of.

And that's where Republicans stop. They're fine with cutting benefits for the poor, sick, and elderly. But they'll die in a fire before they allow loopholes for the wealthy to close.

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Obama's only game now to avoid spending cuts is to scare the public into believing how much a disaster his own sequester would be. It's funny and ironic to hear him, (and you), run away from something that was his idea in the first place.
It's ironic to hear the President say something that was intended to be a bad idea is still a bad idea? What a riot.

No -- what's truly amusing is to hear Republicans who once said it was a bad idea now say that it's not going to be that bad.

Shall I scare up a YouTube that perfectly displays the total Republican reversal on this issue?

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And the only reason Obama is worried about how the economy would react to his own sequester is because he wants to turn the House around next year, especially since republicans can show they've given him what he asked for in tax increases.
I know this is just something you say because it's math you do as a Republican to make yourself feel better.

But the sequester will cause a double dip recession.
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Old 02-17-2013, 11:58 AM   #133
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Originally Posted by Direckshun View Post
Every time we talk, you remind me I'm stupid. It's getting old.

I'm stupid, I'm not retarded. I can remember I'm stupid.
Ever notice it's not the smart person ramming bullshit statistics down an others throat from their soapbox hoping someone will listen?

That would require dignity to realize.
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Old 02-17-2013, 07:36 PM   #134
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Originally Posted by AustinChief View Post
Especially when it's an OUTRIGHT LIE to claim that the last two years have been anything remotely close to "austerity." The fact that Direckshun thinks that spending OVER a trillion dollars more than we bring in is "austerity" shows just how ****ed up he is.
Drek is setting up the narrative for when we go back (?) into a recession.

Dear Leader is never at fault. His policies would work if only his critics would grab their shovels and march off the gulag.
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Old 02-17-2013, 08:47 PM   #135
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Originally Posted by Direckshun View Post
Which Obama and the Democrats are addressing. They also believe that you can further deficit reduction by limiting or eliminating many tax breaks that multi-billion dollar industries and the top 1% wealthy take advantage of.

And that's where Republicans stop. They're fine with cutting benefits for the poor, sick, and elderly. But they'll die in a fire before they allow loopholes for the wealthy to close.
Even the taxes you mention won't put us back to a budget surplus, which is the only thing that will reduce our debt. You can't argue that. The lowest our deficit is projected to get before it skyrockets is about $450 billion in a year or so. Feel free to fact check me on that. After that it's to the moon Alice.

If the democrats really thought they could fix this with tax increases they would do what is necessary in that regard, reform the entire system to widen the tax base to get everyone involved. They won't because class warfare is the only card they have to play.

Quote:
It's ironic to hear the President say something that was intended to be a bad idea is still a bad idea? What a riot.

No -- what's truly amusing is to hear Republicans who once said it was a bad idea now say that it's not going to be that bad.
I'm guessing it's pretty rare for a leader of our country to propose a policy he considers bad, detrimental, maybe even crippling to the country and then play poker with it. Reckless and if anything it just shows how much in over his head he is.
Quote:
Shall I scare up a YouTube that perfectly displays the total Republican reversal on this issue?
If you do make sure the YT is from after the last fiscal cliff deal was done. That changed things. Obama said revenue first, spending cuts later. Republicans fulfilled their end of the bargain and Obama has proven now he can't be trusted to keep his. Republicans might believe taking the medicine now is far better than waiting until the patient is terminal.
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I know this is just something you say because it's math you do as a Republican to make yourself feel better.

But the sequester will cause a double dip recession.
Maybe your leader shouldn't have proposed it. Maybe your leader should actually start dealing on real entitlement reform.

If cutting spending is going to cause another recession let me give you a little hint, we're going to have one no matter what you think. You can't stop it. The numbers don't lie. I know, you just don't want it to happen on Obama's watch but his failure to face our debt will cement his legacy into history as a failed president if he doesn't wake up.
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