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Old 02-16-2013, 01:15 PM  
Count Alex's Losses Count Alex's Losses is online now
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Fair value for Bowe: 5 years, 58m, 20m guaranteed.

Per this very insightful breakdown.

http://overthecap.com/estimating-the...r-dwayne-bowe/

It's long but here's the meat:

Quote:
Comparable Players

Most likely Bowe has two players in mind when looking for a new deal- Vincent Jackson and DeSean Jackson, who both signed new contracts in 2012. I also want to look at the performance of two older players, Brandon Marshall and Andre Johnson, who both signed new contracts back in 2010. The table below compares the 3 year averages of each player prior to their extension:



Quote:
These are 3 year averages for D. Jackson and Bowe but only 2 year averages for V. Jackson since he held out all but 5 games of the 2010 season.

The numbers are adjusted for games missed to not inflate the performance of the others on the team when the player in question was injured.


Quote:
Now we can see how favorably Bowe compares to Jackson. Bowe was a more valuable player to the Chiefs than Jackson was to the Chargers and perhaps that is why the Chiefs are rumored to now want to keep him in the fold.

I think the most striking stat is the interception rate which pointed to Jackson seeing a lot of passes attempted for him getting picked off compared to Bowe. These numbers tell me that Bowe is a clear number 1 and was doing some pretty impressive things in Kansas City with almost no talent around him.
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Based on the comparative performance I am going to push and say on average Bowe is worth about 9.5% more than Jackson, which is pretty much the upper bound of his deal. That would equate to a deal worth a little below $12.2 million a year.

Now I donít think that will happen. Based on the same analysis Vincent was about 33% more valuable than DeSean but overall his deal ended up 14.5% higher in APY. Using the same adjustment Bowe should earn a realistic deal worth 4.2% more than Jackson, equating to about $11.58 million a season.
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Old 02-20-2013, 11:03 AM   #136
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****ing incredible numbers. Tweet that shit to D Bowe and mail him some kleenex and jergens.
lol this.
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Old 02-20-2013, 11:10 AM   #137
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Old 02-20-2013, 11:15 AM   #138
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Seriously, you guys are ****ing creepy
It's pretty tiring, IMO too. But at least it's a healthier obsession than their real life pursuit of the neighbor's cat....
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Old 02-20-2013, 11:17 AM   #139
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Maybe im wrong but Bowe cant sign until a week before FA starts right?
Right. But I think they can franchise him the 4th...
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Old 02-20-2013, 11:32 AM   #140
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Originally Posted by Rausch View Post
Right. But I think they can franchise him the 4th...
I think they can franchise him anytime between now and the 4th. If they franchise him after that, they can't sign him to a long-term contract after that.
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Old 02-20-2013, 11:53 AM   #141
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I thought there was a window for negotiations before the season.
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Old 02-20-2013, 11:54 AM   #142
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Originally Posted by Superturtle View Post
Maybe im wrong but Bowe cant sign until a week before FA starts right?
He can sign now.
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Old 02-20-2013, 11:56 AM   #143
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Originally Posted by Nightfyre View Post
I thought there was a window for negotiations before the season.
I thought the home team gets like 7 days before the other teams can negotiate with the player...
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Old 02-20-2013, 12:00 PM   #144
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Originally Posted by Nightfyre View Post
I thought there was a window for negotiations before the season.
There is, it's in like August.
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Old 02-20-2013, 12:03 PM   #145
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Old 02-20-2013, 12:04 PM   #146
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I wonder if both Albert and Bowe would want to avoid the franchise tag badly enough to end up with a 'race to the courthouse' scenario.

"Gentlemen, one of you's getting singed to a long-term deal with a massive signing bonus, the other is getting the tag. Here's a pen and here are your contracts which are FMV contracts based on last year's market. The salary cap has not changed, so last year's market remains a valid point of comparison. Whichever one of you gets me a signed contract first will get your long-term deal."

It's kinda the ol' prisoner's dilemma. You don't have them in the same room together because then they could band together and both choose not to sign and leave you in a bit of a lurch. Make the presentations to their respective agents and send them on their way.

Yeah, Bowe has some leverage here, but the Chiefs have some as well if they use it correctly.
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Old 02-20-2013, 12:07 PM   #147
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DJ's left nut View Post
I wonder if both Albert and Bowe would want to avoid the franchise tag badly enough to end up with a 'race to the courthouse' scenario.

"Gentlemen, one of you's getting singed to a long-term deal with a massive signing bonus, the other is getting the tag. Here's a pen and here are your contracts which are FMV contracts based on last year's market. The salary cap has not changed, so last year's market remains a valid point of comparison. Whichever one of you gets me a signed contract first will get your long-term deal."

It's kinda the ol' prisoner's dilemma. You don't have them in the same room together because then they could band together and both choose not to sign and leave you in a bit of a lurch. Make the presentations to their respective agents and send them on their way.

Yeah, Bowe has some leverage here, but the Chiefs have some as well if they use it correctly.
I'd be much more comfortable giving Bowe a long term deal than Albert. Let's see if Albert can stay healthy during his tagged year before locking him up to big money...
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Old 02-20-2013, 12:13 PM   #148
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Originally Posted by Rausch View Post
I'd be much more comfortable giving Bowe a long term deal than Albert. Let's see if Albert can stay healthy during his tagged year before locking him up to big money...
Bowe had a neck injury that put him on IR. Why is Albert a bigger risk than him?
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Old 02-20-2013, 12:15 PM   #149
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I thought it was a rib injury?
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Old 02-20-2013, 12:17 PM   #150
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I thought it was a rib injury?
You're right. Don't know where I got neck from.
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