Fair value for Bowe: 5 years, 58m, 20m guaranteed.

[Branden Albert's Huge Balls]

Per this very insightful breakdown.

http://overthecap.com/estimating-the...r-dwayne-bowe/

It's long but here's the meat:

Comparable Players

Most likely Bowe has two players in mind when looking for a new deal- Vincent Jackson and DeSean Jackson, who both signed new contracts in 2012. I also want to look at the performance of two older players, Brandon Marshall and Andre Johnson, who both signed new contracts back in 2010. The table below compares the 3 year averages of each player prior to their extension:

These are 3 year averages for D. Jackson and Bowe but only 2 year averages for V. Jackson since he held out all but 5 games of the 2010 season.

The numbers are adjusted for games missed to not inflate the performance of the others on the team when the player in question was injured.

Now we can see how favorably Bowe compares to Jackson. Bowe was a more valuable player to the Chiefs than Jackson was to the Chargers and perhaps that is why the Chiefs are rumored to now want to keep him in the fold.

I think the most striking stat is the interception rate which pointed to Jackson seeing a lot of passes attempted for him getting picked off compared to Bowe. These numbers tell me that Bowe is a clear number 1 and was doing some pretty impressive things in Kansas City with almost no talent around him.

Based on the comparative performance I am going to push and say on average Bowe is worth about 9.5% more than Jackson, which is pretty much the upper bound of his deal. That would equate to a deal worth a little below $12.2 million a year.

Now I don’t think that will happen. Based on the same analysis Vincent was about 33% more valuable than DeSean but overall his deal ended up 14.5% higher in APY. Using the same adjustment Bowe should earn a realistic deal worth 4.2% more than Jackson, equating to about $11.58 million a season.

[htismaqe]

Originally Posted by Rausch

I'd be much more comfortable giving Bowe a long term deal than Albert. Let's see if Albert can stay healthy during his tagged year before locking him up to big money...

By the same token, if you have every reason to believe Albert is healthy, he's probably got twice as many years left in him as Bowe.

There's pros and cons to both. I'd still prefer to tag Albert and sign Bowe, if we can't sign both of them.

[Sweet Daddy Hate]

just get the deals done so we can move past this absurd joekel bullshit.
Posted via Mobile Device

[KC_Lee]

Originally Posted by Sweet Dick Willie

just get the deals done so we can move past this absurd joekel bullshit.
Posted via Mobile Device

The Joekel BS will continue because the national media will push the "Albert will move from LT to LG" line.

[Mr. Laz]

Gochiefs complaining about trolls.

[htismaqe]

Originally Posted by KC_Lee

The Joekel BS will continue because the national media will push the "Albert will move from LT to LG" line.

Exactly.

This won't be over until draft day.

[Sweet Daddy Hate]

Originally Posted by KC_Lee

The Joekel BS will continue because the national media will push the "Albert will move from LT to LG" line.

how did something SO...****ING...STUPID...created here or another BB gain national truck??? Yep, NO ONE in the "legitimate" sports press pays attention to us lowly BB maroons....
Posted via Mobile Device

[KC_Lee]

Originally Posted by Sweet Dick Willie

how did something SO...****ING...STUPID...created here or another BB gain national truck??? Yep, NO ONE in the "legitimate" sports press pays attention to us lowly BB maroons....
Posted via Mobile Device

No idea other than the fact that Albert played LG in college and the national media just cannot fathom the Chiefs taking Geno with the first pick.

With all the mocks with Joekel as the first pick I am convinced that most national writers are 1) to damn lazy to see that KC needs a QB more than any other position on the field, and 2) forgot about the rookie pay scale so they can spout the "value" line over and over.

[Sweet Daddy Hate]

this.
Posted via Mobile Device

[Nightfyre]

Originally Posted by Nightfyre

If we sign Bowe:
1) We will either sign or franchise Albert.
2) We are drafting Geno Smith.

Yes, one final step until completion of Operation Godiva.

[PGM]

This thread is pretty damn spot on man.

[DJ's left nut]

Hell, if the reports are true, they even did something similar to what I said they should do - give both guys a LTC and tell them that one of them's going to get tagged so they should race to sign it.

Prisoner's dilemma wins again.

[Pestilence]

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

Hell, if the reports are true, they even did something similar to what I said they should do - give both guys a LTC and tell them that one of them's going to get tagged so they should race to sign it.

Prisoner's dilemma wins again.

Makes sense that the WR is faster than the LT.