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Old 02-19-2013, 06:53 AM  
Deberg_1990 Deberg_1990 is offline
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Peter King: You have to go back to 1997 to find a draft like this one

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/nfl.../?sct=uk_wr_a1





You'd probably have to go back to 1997 to find a draft like this one. That's the year Peyton Manning eschewed the prospect of going to the Jets first overall to play for Bill Parcells and returned for his senior year at Tennessee. One quarterback (shaky Jim Druckenmiller, 26th) picked in round one. Two backs (Warrick Dunn 12th and Antowain Smith 23rd) in round one, and four receivers in the first: Ike Hilliard seventh, Yatil Green 15th, Reidel Anthony 16th and Rae Carruth 27th. Yikes! What a horrible draft for point-producers. One star, Dunn, out of seven first-rounders.

That could repeat this year. It's likely Alabama's Eddie Lacy will be the only running back taken in round one. Tennessee's Cordarrelle Patterson leads the muddled pack at wide receiver, but how sure can you really be of junior-college transfers who play one year of major-college football, which is Patterson's profile?

The quarterbacks are a total mish-mosh at this point. One GM interested in acquiring a quarterback this offseason told me over the weekend, "I expect more attention on the quarterbacks throwing this year than on any other single thing at the Combine.'' Some think Geno Smith of West Virginia will go first overall to quarterback-needy Kansas City; one personnel man who studied all the top quarterbacks for a team in need of one last fall told me, "There's not one quarterback, including Smith, I would take in the first round."

Two points about that. If you need a quarterback, you can talk brave in February, but when reality sets in around draft day, and you haven't picked up a quarterback in free agency, all of a sudden the zits on Smith, Matt Barkley and other others don't seem as bad. And we're nine and a half weeks from round one. There's no way that Andy Reid and John Dorsey, the coach and GM for Kansas City, know what they're doing now. They need time to investigate and to watch tape on the eight or 10 quarterbacks.


But in some ways, 2013 should be a catchup year for the other positions. Opening day 2013 could feature 12 starting quarterbacks drafted in 2011 and '12; that's far, far above the norm in a game that values veteran arms at the position.

Now for a couple of notes about players at the Combine.

Alec Ogletree. The underclass inside linebacker from Georgia would be a clear top-10 pick with a clean resume. But he was suspended the first four games of last season for failing an offseason drug test, and then came the news Saturday night, via ProFootballTalk.com, that Ogletree recently was pinched for driving while intoxicated.

Ogletree and agent Pat Dye were smart to come out and beat the police blotter to the punch. As for the damage done by the arrest, Ogletree, who is a speed demon for an inside player, the kind of player who, if right, would be a perfect fit as a rare three-down inside linebacker for any team, has to convince teams they shouldn't be worried about a player who has tested positive, been suspended, and gotten a DWI in the span of about nine months.

Some GM is going to stake his reputation on Ogletree in the first round, most likely. Which GM? It would have to be a secure one. Green Bay's Ted Thompson or de facto GM Bill Belichick of the Patriots or Baltimore's Ozzie Newsome, all down near the bottom of the round.

Manti Te'o. The Notre Dame linebacker has spent a lot of time practicing football and practicing what he's going to say to teams. His last game, against Alabama, was a nightmare (he was awful, and overpowered), and then the whole fake girlfriend story came up, making him a national story and, in some quarters, a national joke. It won't matter much how he works out in Indianapolis. What will matter are the 15-minute interviews he'll have in formal evening sessions with teams, and in less formal settings, seeing coaches and personnel people at the stadium and around his hotel.

No men have more on the line, off the field, at the Scouting Combine than Ogletree and Te'o.

Finally, three players I'll be watching at the Combine, three with question marks and debatable upsides:

1. Quarterback Sean Renfree, Duke. No one's talking about him, but he completed 70 percent of his throws in six of 12 games for David Cutcliffe last fall, was a comeback specialist, and has the pedigree in a good pro-style offense to play early. Could he be more than a late-round flyer, this year's Ryan Lindley? We'll see.

2. Cornerback Xavier Rhodes, Florida State. A 6-2 cornerback in a league demanding cover guys who can play on islands more and more? Scouts want to see if Rhodes, who is a heady player with good bump skills at the line of scrimmage, has the speed to stay with fast wideouts. If so, he'll be a top-half-of-the-first-round player.

3. Running back Marcus Lattimore, South Carolina. After his devastating dislocated knee and torn knee ligaments in October, Lattimore, considered a certain first-rounder before the injury, is still in recovery mode. His surgeon, James Andrews, told Lattimore recently that he's going to shock the world. "I hear he's working out great,'' said Mayock. Lattimore believes he'll be healthy enough to start the 2013 NFL season. Is he's a fourth-round minefield pick? Or might some team desperate for a back go for him a round earlier -- or even late in the second round?



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Old 02-19-2013, 10:22 AM   #76
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You are correct.
Eat cum, asshole
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Old 02-19-2013, 10:23 AM   #77
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I will agree with you 100% after the Chiefs draft a QB at #1 overall. That's when hardcore professional scouting trumps my hobby.

The issue of taking a QB isn't a matter of scouting. It's a matter of philosophy and principle.

I didn't see you giving John McCain or Mitt Romney a pass. I'm pretty sure you were just fine with saying, "McCain is no different than Bush, which hasn't done very well for the country." You didn't know that. You didn't know what McCain or Romney would be all about and yet you still assumed they would employ the same strategy that you railed against for the last 8 years.

The Chiefs are faced with doing what we've been doing for the past 30 years, not 8. We have the option of going with the strategy that got us into this mess, or we can switch up the strategy and go with something completely different for a bit, and see if that works.

Sorry to inject political dialogue into the main Lounge, but if that's all you understand, then that's the language I'll have to talk.
FYI, I haven't posted 50 times in DC in in the last 3 years.

As for scouting, you are just wrong. It's *possible* that the difference between the top 5 QB's is marginal. And if you grade all of them as 2nd round players, then you are a terrible fool if you take one of them over an alternative player who you rate as the #1 overall player when you could get your #4 and #5 QB with your second pick.

Scouting that matters deeply.
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Old 02-19-2013, 10:24 AM   #78
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Yeah, what about Josh Freeman? ***** failed, hardcore. If he had any idea that Matt Cassel was shitty, he would NEVER have given him 60m.

You are such a shitty homer.

And "looking back" at least Mark Sanchez won playoff games. Matt never came close.

Wrong again, homer.
I'm not convinced that Mark Sanchez and Joe Flacco aren't perfect analogs of each other. Both are guys that struggle with short/intermediate accuracy and have, on occasion, lost their teams. They're both guys that will spend large chunks of the season looking like boiled ass.

But they're both guys that play pretty well in the playoffs. Flacco's always been surrounded by better players and he's probably a little bit better than Sanchez, but it's not night and day. Flacco also hasn't had the pressure of the NY media absolutely hounding him; he's not the ESPN mark that Sanchez has been.

Had the Ravens traded Joe Flacco for the rights to Mark Sanchez, I'm pretty sure both franchises fates would've been exactly the same over the last 4 seasons as they have been in the real world.
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Old 02-19-2013, 10:26 AM   #79
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You don't make up for past failures by over-reacting today.

I have no idea if Geno Smith is the right QB or not. And neither do the 32 GM's out there today. And neither do the draft talking heads here or in the media.

If the facts of the draft say that no QB is graded in the top 15 players, and you have the option to make a trade for an NFL-experienced QB that you think is worth the pick you'll be trading, you DON'T cave to pressure from fans who are essentially disappointed that this draft class doesn't match our position of need and they long to be like the cool kids who always seem to get the big splash on draft day.

If Reid and Dorsey think that Alex Smith for a #33 or #65 is a better bet for their plans than Geno Smith for the #1, then take Alex Smith. And the Cassel experience should have zero impact on that decision. And fans desire for selecting a #1 overall QB should have none.

Nothing.
So based on the bolded, we shouldn't take a chance on a quarterback in the first, in your opinion. We don't know if Joeckel is going to be worth a shit, either. Nor Star Loutelil(?), or Milliner, or Moore, or *insert name here*.

We should just miss our alotted time to pick every round becasue we just don't know if any of the guys we take will be any good. Just sit back and let the feeding frenzy commence every time we skip a pick.

You sound like 80% of the idiots that call into local radio talk shows in KC, jAZ. It really is like the fans of this team have been programmed to just play it safe and not take chances.

This team needs a quarterback, period. We NEED to have our OWN quarterback. We have now gone through two and a half full decades of trying to win with some other teams' castoffs, and what has it gotten us? Three playoff wins in twenty five years of trying it with "proven vets". If Joe ****ing Montana couldn't put us over the hump, what in the name of all that is holy would make you think Alex Smith can?

This team, right now, is BUILT for a Geno Smith. This kid can come in and make a difference, ESPECIALLY with Andy Reid guiding the way for him.
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Old 02-19-2013, 10:26 AM   #80
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I remain hopeful that this is just a visceral reaction from you that's really just a back-alley defense of Geno Smith. Otherwise you're left with simply talking out your ass. There is ample evidence to suggest that Alex Smith can be a solid QB in this league.
It's not a back-alley defense of Geno Smith but it absolutely is a visceral reaction.

I've lived through Steve Deberg, Dave Krieg, Steve Bono, Elvis Grbac, and on and on all the way up to Cassel and Quinn.

The thought of bringing in ANOTHER cast-off from another team and hoping for the best just makes me want to puke.

You can sit here and make all the objective, stat-filled arguments you want. 25 years of Chiefs history tells me Alex Smith in KC is destined to fail.
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Old 02-19-2013, 10:27 AM   #81
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Yeah, what about Josh Freeman? ***** failed, hardcore. If he had any idea that Matt Cassel was shitty, he would NEVER have given him 60m.

You are such a shitty homer.

And "looking back" at least Mark Sanchez won playoff games. Matt never came close.

Wrong again, homer.
This is like saying 3-4 years from now Tyler Bray ended up being the best QB in the 2013 draft, therefore Dorsey is an idiot for choosing Alex Smith over Geno Smith.
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Old 02-19-2013, 10:29 AM   #82
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So based on the bolded, we shouldn't take a chance on a quarterback in the first, in your opinion. We don't know if Joeckel is going to be worth a shit, either. Nor Star Loutelil(?), or Milliner, or Moore, or *insert name here*.

We should just miss our alotted time to pick every round becasue we just don't know if any of the guys we take will be any good. Just sit back and let the feeding frenzy commence every time we skip a pick.

You sound like 80% of the idiots that call into local radio talk shows in KC, jAZ. It really is like the fans of this team have been programmed to just play it safe and not take chances.

This team needs a quarterback, period. We NEED to have our OWN quarterback. We have now gone through two and a half full decades of trying to win with some other teams' castoffs, and what has it gotten us? Three playoff wins in twenty five years of trying it with "proven vets". If Joe ****ing Montana couldn't put us over the hump, what in the name of all that is holy would make you think Alex Smith can?

This team, right now, is BUILT for a Geno Smith. This kid can come in and make a difference, ESPECIALLY with Andy Reid guiding the way for him.
This is a terrible post.

My move it to trust the professionals and not take myself too seriously.

But to stay on your point, I will admit that one flaw in my approach would emerge if the professionals thought it best to skip their pick entirely. I'll say now that I would stand corrected in that case.
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Old 02-19-2013, 10:30 AM   #83
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Smith only played 1 yr in the big 12
If you have a point feel free to make it. RG3 earned his draft spot based on his senior year, not the prior years. Geno should be held no different in that regard.
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Old 02-19-2013, 10:32 AM   #84
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This is like saying 3-4 years from now Tyler Bray ended up being the best QB in the 2013 draft, therefore Dorsey is an idiot for choosing Alex Smith over Geno Smith.
I don't care what it's "like saying."

Trading for Matt Cassel was, is, and always will be ****ing stupid.

Pioli did it for the same reasons he didn't re-sign Kyle Orton. He's a ****ing DUMB ASS.
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Old 02-19-2013, 10:32 AM   #85
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FYI, I haven't posted 50 times in DC in in the last 3 years.

As for scouting, you are just wrong. It's *possible* that the difference between the top 5 QB's is marginal. And if you grade all of them as 2nd round players, then you are a terrible fool if you take one of them over an alternative player who you rate as the #1 overall player when you could get your #4 and #5 QB with your second pick.

Scouting that matters deeply.
Cool. That doesn't change the fact that you're an informed person when it comes to politics. I also suspect you felt that way about the last two Republican candidates. The point is, if you're going to be more impulsive about picking the president than you are about picking your favorite team's QB, I don't know what to tell you. Again, I'm not saying that voting strategy isn't legit. It is absolutely a rational reason for voting that way. And if it applies to the goddamned president, it should apply to something measly like the Chiefs QB.

And here we go again. You're using "ifs" to lend credence to your argument that drafting a QB might not be the best thing. However, those ifs are very unlikely. There IS a first round QB in this draft. I believe there are multiple, in fact, as do many draft analysts. Secondly, it's one thing to have a #1 overall non-QB that you select with the top pick. It's quite another to be in this draft where there ISN'T THAT PLAYER AROUND.

And DON'T tell me that I don't know that. It's looking pretty ****ing grim right now. Even an explosion out of the combine likely won't change that.

If the top nonQB in this draft is worth a 10 or a 15 pick most years (which is the case except for the OTs) and the highest rated QB is a 20 or late 20, you take the goddamned QB. When people ask if you reached too hard, you say, "It was the best pick for the team."

Because guess what? IT WAS.
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Old 02-19-2013, 10:32 AM   #86
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This is a terrible post.

My move it to trust the professionals and not take myself too seriously.

But to stay on your point, I will admit that one flaw in my approach would emerge if the professionals thought it best to skip their pick entirely. I'll say now that I would stand corrected in that case.
If your point is that you trust in Dorsey and Reid if they take another player than Geno, then I'm with you. I won't like it, but they will get the benefit of the doubt from me until they prove that they aren't worthy of that benefit.

If your point is that Geno looks to be too big of a risk to throw the first pick at, then my post is 100% accurate.
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Old 02-19-2013, 10:32 AM   #87
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Originally Posted by htismaqe View Post
It's not a back-alley defense of Geno Smith but it absolutely is a visceral reaction.

I've lived through Steve Deberg, Dave Krieg, Steve Bono, Elvis Grbac, and on and on all the way up to Cassel and Quinn.

The thought of bringing in ANOTHER cast-off from another team and hoping for the best just makes me want to puke.

You can sit here and make all the objective, stat-filled arguments you want. 25 years of Chiefs history tells me Alex Smith in KC is destined to fail.
Fair enough. But dammit, at some point we're going to roll 7s, I am firmly convinced of this.
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Old 02-19-2013, 10:33 AM   #88
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My move it to trust the professionals


The Professionals...like Herm, Carl, Pioli, Haley, Gunther, Muir, Daboll....TRUST THEM ALL!!!
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Old 02-19-2013, 10:34 AM   #89
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Fair enough. But dammit, at some point we're going to roll 7s, I am firmly convinced of this.
Sorry, but I don't have 30 more years to wait.
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Old 02-19-2013, 10:34 AM   #90
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So based on the bolded, we shouldn't take a chance on a quarterback in the first, in your opinion. We don't know if Joeckel is going to be worth a shit, either. Nor Star Loutelil(?), or Milliner, or Moore, or *insert name here*.

We should just miss our alotted time to pick every round becasue we just don't know if any of the guys we take will be any good. Just sit back and let the feeding frenzy commence every time we skip a pick.

You sound like 80% of the idiots that call into local radio talk shows in KC, jAZ. It really is like the fans of this team have been programmed to just play it safe and not take chances.

This team needs a quarterback, period. We NEED to have our OWN quarterback. We have now gone through two and a half full decades of trying to win with some other teams' castoffs, and what has it gotten us? Three playoff wins in twenty five years of trying it with "proven vets". If Joe ****ing Montana couldn't put us over the hump, what in the name of all that is holy would make you think Alex Smith can?

This team, right now, is BUILT for a Geno Smith. This kid can come in and make a difference, ESPECIALLY with Andy Reid guiding the way for him.
The pro GENO-AT-ALL-COSTS crowd sure is logic challenged. Saying he doesn't know if Geno is the guy or not doesn't mean that Geno shouldn't be the pick. It also doesn't mean that jAZ thinks that he should know for sure about any particular player before that player becomes worthy of the 1st pick. Every post I read from Geno fanboys seems more facepalm-worthy than the last.
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