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Old 02-24-2013, 10:31 AM  
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GOP - has a huge demographic edge?

GOP EDGE? MORE BABIES ON THE WAY
By: Mark LaRochelle
2/24/2013 06:10 AM



The GOP is demographically doomed unless it can win more of the Latino vote. That’s what this de facto amnesty is supposed to accomplish.

BUNK

As we have pointed out before, this approach backfired the last time it was tried, in 1986. It’s Democrats who face demographic extinction, due to the “fertility gap.”

In terms of fertility, “the GOP has a lead over the Democrats among white women and among younger women at all levels of income and education,” according to political scientist Eric Kaufman. And this “Republican fertility advantage,” he says, is growing.

Behind the Democrats’ “baby bust” is liberalism. As RedState.com reported, Arthur C. Brooks, president of the American Enterprise Institute, observed, “according to the 2004 General Social Survey, if you picked 100 unrelated politically liberal adults at random, you would find that they had, between them, 147 children.

“If you picked 100 conservatives, you would find 208 kids. That’s a ‘fertility gap’ of 41 percent.”

“The growing Republican fertility advantage largely derives from religion,” according to Kaufman. In his 2010 book, “Shall the Religious Inherit the Earth?: Demography and Politics in the Twenty-First Century,” Kaufman argues, “across denominations, the fertility advantage of religious fundamentalists of all colours is significant and growing. After 2020, their demographic weight will begin to tip the balance in the culture wars toward the conservative side, ramping up pressure on hot-button issues such as abortion. By the end of the century, three quarters of America may be anti-abortion.”.........


http://www.humanevents.com/2013/02/2...es-on-the-way/
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Old 02-24-2013, 04:44 PM   #16
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The youth of America continues to march solidly toward libertarianism. The GOP Needs to wake up and stop alienating that demographic. I am talking about the "regular" people who lean towards MUCH smaller government and adherence to the Constitution; fiscal conservative yet socially liberal types... not the nutjobs that typical call themselves Libertarians
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Old 02-24-2013, 05:13 PM   #17
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Quote:
Originally Posted by AustinChief View Post
The youth of America continues to march solidly toward libertarianism. The GOP Needs to wake up and stop alienating that demographic. I am talking about the "regular" people who lean towards MUCH smaller government and adherence to the Constitution; fiscal conservative yet socially liberal types... not the nutjobs that typical call themselves Libertarians
For lack of a better name this is true. There have only been three parties. So if you are not a democrat or republican you kind of get stuck with libertarian~
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Old 02-24-2013, 05:17 PM   #18
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Quote:
Originally Posted by AustinChief View Post
The youth of America continues to march solidly toward libertarianism. The GOP Needs to wake up and stop alienating that demographic. I am talking about the "regular" people who lean towards MUCH smaller government and adherence to the Constitution; fiscal conservative yet socially liberal types... not the nutjobs that typical call themselves Libertarians
Which is why they are also anti-war. That's the part does not bear well for the GOP.
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Old 02-24-2013, 05:52 PM   #19
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Quote:
Originally Posted by AustinChief View Post
The youth of America continues to march solidly toward libertarianism. The GOP Needs to wake up and stop alienating that demographic. I am talking about the "regular" people who lean towards MUCH smaller government and adherence to the Constitution; fiscal conservative yet socially liberal types... not the nutjobs that typical call themselves Libertarians
Come on man, the "youth" of this country is always different from the establishment in their political views. Is this going to be the first generation that keeps its political views static from age 18 all the way to 75? That would be a first. They'll change, and normally that happens the first time they see their FICA withheld from their paycheck.
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Old 02-24-2013, 06:18 PM   #20
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Originally Posted by Prison Bitch View Post
They'll change, and normally that happens the first time they see their FICA withheld from their paycheck.
I think they're seeing that going my own daughter's reaction. This is why they're moving toward libertarianism—which is limited govt, low taxes etc. Even Reagan said the heart of conservativism is libertarian. There's overlaps. Libertarians just want less than conservatives.

At least, they're not going with the Progressive left.
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Old 02-24-2013, 08:29 PM   #21
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Originally Posted by Prison Bitch View Post
Come on man, the "youth" of this country is always different from the establishment in their political views. Is this going to be the first generation that keeps its political views static from age 18 all the way to 75? That would be a first. They'll change, and normally that happens the first time they see their FICA withheld from their paycheck.
Um, why would a young fiscal conservative change after seeing FICA withheld? would they become even MORE fiscally conservative??? And there is a HUGE groundswell of fiscal conservatism amongst the youth right now. Shockingly apparent among younger women (20-26) to be exact. Maybe it is different on the coasts.. but in "liberal" Austin this is the trend.
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Old 02-24-2013, 09:03 PM   #22
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Originally Posted by AustinChief View Post
Um, why would a young fiscal conservative change after seeing FICA withheld? would they become even MORE fiscally conservative??? And there is a HUGE groundswell of fiscal conservatism amongst the youth right now. Shockingly apparent among younger women (20-26) to be exact. Maybe it is different on the coasts.. but in "liberal" Austin this is the trend.
Obama carried 60% of the 18-29 vote. Am I to assume that the "HUGE" groundswell came after the election?
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Old 02-24-2013, 10:05 PM   #23
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Obama carried 60% of the 18-29 vote. Am I to assume that the "HUGE" groundswell came after the election?
No. What part of socially liberal do you not understand? This entire BBS is on full retard the last few days.

They are fiscally conservative and socially liberal. Neither party delivers on the fiscal part so they tend to vote 3rd party or democrat(better record on at least one thing they care about... social liberalism ..i.e gay marriage etc) or not at all. Although 60% is not something to crow about at all after taking 66% in 2008.

Libertarian ideals are becoming more and more mainstream. If you can't see that then you live in a complete bubble.(again, I'm not talking about the kooks here, I'm talking about the PJ O'Rourke types)
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Old 02-24-2013, 10:29 PM   #24
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P.J. O'Rourke was H. L. Mencken Research Fellow at the Cato Institute, I believe.
Cato was founded by Charles Koch in part, which just went through a shake-up. I call that inside the Beltway Libertarianism connected to the hallways of govt power. Murray, the Godfather of Libertarianism, was actually removed from their board. I'll make an educated guess here, but I think this is why you consider Rothbardians the kooks who call it Stato. One way to not change what goes on in Washington is to set up a think-tank like Cato that operates in the hallways of power. Getting into policy making means compromise and that's why nothing ever changes. Meanwhile, Ron Paul who was loved on college campuses, is doing talks at these campuses educating about true liberty, not the warfare state, at campuses and will now be on radio. Being fiscally conservative and socially liberal is not what defines libertarianism. Scratch many of them, underneath is a statist. Sorry, I'll take the kooks over your Kochtopus faux “libertarian” humorist.

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Old 02-24-2013, 11:01 PM   #25
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Originally Posted by BucEyedPea View Post
P.J. O'Rourke was H. L. Mencken Research Fellow at the Cato Institute, I believe.
Cato was founded by Charles Koch in part, which just went through a shake-up. I call that inside the Beltway Libertarianism connected to the hallways of govt power. Murray, the Godfather of Libertarianism, was actually removed from their board. I'll make an educated guess here, but I think this is why you consider Rothbardians the kooks who call it Stato. One way to not change what goes on in Washington is to set up a think-tank like Cato that operates in the hallways of power. Getting into policy making means compromise and that's why nothing ever changes. Meanwhile, Ron Paul who was loved on college campuses, is doing talks at these campuses educating about true liberty, not the warfare state, at campuses and will now be on radio. Being fiscally conservative and socially liberal is not what defines libertarianism. Scratch many of them, underneath is a statist. Sorry, I'll take the kooks over your Kochtopus faux “libertarian” humorist.

"Here's to the crazy ones, the misfits, the rebels, the troublemakers, the round pegs in the square holes... the ones who see things differently -- they're not fond of rules... You can quote them, disagree with them, glorify or vilify them, but the only thing you can't do is ignore them because they change things... they push the human race forward, and while some may see them as the crazy ones, we see genius, because the ones who are crazy enough to think that they can change the world, are the ones who do." ~ Steve Jobs
Quoting a douchebag like Steve Jobs doesn't help your position one bit.

I'll take the pragmatic realists over the ideologues any day.
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Old 02-25-2013, 01:59 AM   #26
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No. What part of socially liberal do you not understand? This entire BBS is on full retard the last few days.

They are fiscally conservative and socially liberal. Neither party delivers on the fiscal part so they tend to vote 3rd party or democrat(better record on at least one thing they care about... social liberalism ..i.e gay marriage etc) or not at all. Although 60% is not something to crow about at all after taking 66% in 2008.

Libertarian ideals are becoming more and more mainstream. If you can't see that then you live in a complete bubble.(again, I'm not talking about the kooks here, I'm talking about the PJ O'Rourke types)
The problem is that most of these voters don't identify with the Republican party. And probably never will with this generation of Republican leaders.

And they're only fiscally conservative up to a point. Fiscally conservative has become a relative phrase recently. Because a lot of Republicans aren't so must fiscally conservative as they are for lower taxes. And because after years of listening to the scaremongering, a lot of people have realized that it's all a bit of a joke. Just look at our record high borrowing rates, and the soaring inflation...errr.

I'm also not sure I buy your conclusion. I think a lot of them, at least in Austin, are for libertarian ideals as far as the internet and social aspects go, but quick to embrace some more liberal policies beyond that. A lot of them distrust the government, but still expect and want to it provide certain services.
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Old 02-25-2013, 06:57 AM   #27
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LOL.

This article is a pile of reeking garbage. The white vote has been declining for over two decades. Whatever demographic edge that may exist within the white vote, existed to an even stronger extent decades ago.
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Old 02-25-2013, 07:00 AM   #28
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Originally Posted by Prison Bitch View Post
Come on man, the "youth" of this country is always different from the establishment in their political views. Is this going to be the first generation that keeps its political views static from age 18 all the way to 75? That would be a first. They'll change, and normally that happens the first time they see their FICA withheld from their paycheck.
What part of FICA has F-all to do with social issues? Libertarians are conservative fiscally, but they are also liberal on abortion, gay issues, drug policy, war, etc. For a large chunk of those libertarians, the anti-gay craze in the GOP is total anathema to them, and they'll reluctantly vote Democrat. Thats what Austinchief is saying, he's not arguing that young people today will be economic liberals when they grow up, he's saying they are social liberals, and that wont change when they get older.
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Old 02-25-2013, 07:09 AM   #29
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Obama carried 60% of the 18-29 vote. Am I to assume that the "HUGE" groundswell came after the election?
As of right now, I do believe that a strong majority of voting millennials are liberal, and since this generation is very large and they actually turned out to vote (as opposed to the slackers in Gen X), that helped Obama quite a bit.

Every generation has become more fiscally conservative when they get to their early 30's. In the past, that meant most of the white vote turned full conservative. This time, I don't think we'll get many conservatives out of this batch, instead a lot of these liberal millennials will probably convert to libertarian. If they don't, then the GOP is obviously screwed.
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Old 02-25-2013, 07:24 AM   #30
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LOL.

This article is a pile of reeking garbage. The white vote has been declining for over two decades. Whatever demographic edge that may exist within the white vote, existed to an even stronger extent decades ago.
I think you completely missed the point. The author knows the white share is declining. He is arguing that among whites, they will become more and more GOP over time. Also, among minorities who vote GOP (while not as numerous) also will help offset the difference with higher birthrates.
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