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Old 03-22-2013, 11:53 PM  
Fat Elvis Fat Elvis is offline
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Do Geno fans have overinflated expectations?

Suppose we take Geno with the number one overall pick. What kind of career can we realistically expect from him? Realistically--if we actually use the statistics Geno fans like to toss around (especially those who hate Alex Smith)--statistics from www.pro-football-reference.com , we can, on average, expect Geno Smith-or any number 1 draft pick- to be Brad Johnson.

Is Brad Johnson a franchise QB?

Right now, from an overall career standpoint, Alex Smith isn't even a Brad Johnson according to pro-football-reference. However, looking at his last couple of years, his best years, he has topped Brad Johnson compared to Johnson's best two years when you look at QB rating.

If Reid and Dorsey believe that Alex Smith is on an upward trajectory careerwise, then we got him for a steal.

Anyway, here is an interesting article about draft picks based upon expected Career Approximate Values for each draft slot which argues that the current draft value chart is outdated and a new one needs to replace it. It was created by a Harvard economics student. The upshot of the value chart basically says that high draft picks are currently over-rated and mid-round draft picks are under-rated.

http://harvardsportsanalysis.wordpre...l-draft-picks/

Kind of interesting and worth the read.
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Old 03-24-2013, 10:09 PM   #181
Count Zarth Count Zarth is offline
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Originally Posted by Fat Elvis View Post
In 2011, Alex Smith had 6 4th quarter comebacks/game winning drives....
Thanks, 49ers defense!
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I may be brain dead who knows.
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Old 03-24-2013, 10:17 PM   #182
AlexSmithDynasty AlexSmithDynasty is offline
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Thanks, 49ers defense!
Yeah that defense was really carrying them when Smith brought them back from down 20 against Philadelphia and when they let the Saints score long touchdowns to take the lead twice in the final 4 minutes of the game. I think the defense let them score those touchdowns late so they could make Smith look good by setting him up for 2 consecutive go ahead td drives to win the game.
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Old 03-24-2013, 10:20 PM   #183
Count Zarth Count Zarth is offline
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If Alex Smith didn't suck ass, dipshit, he wouldn't have to mount those comebacks.
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Old 03-24-2013, 10:41 PM   #184
AlexSmithDynasty AlexSmithDynasty is offline
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Originally Posted by Go to Hell View Post
If Alex Smith didn't suck ass, dipshit, he wouldn't have to mount those comebacks.
Ahh yes of course, it's not enough that he won the games but they weren't all blowouts, it's almost like it's a professional league and the other team is trying to win too. There were also many wins where the 49ers lead comfortably the whole game and the team stopped throwing in the 2nd half, but of course Smith doesn't get any credit for those wins either because he didn't throw for enough yards for you right?

Top 5 qb's by 4th quarter comebacks are 1. Peyton Manning, 2. Dan Marino, 3. John Elway 4. Joe Montana, 5. Fran Tarkenton. I used to think these guys were good but I guess they actually suck ass because their teams were always losing and they had to mount comebacks.
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Old 03-24-2013, 11:17 PM   #185
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AlexSmithDynasty, it's all heads I win/tails you lose around here. Smith doesn't get credit when the team wins, he only gets blame if they lose. The same thing will happen this coming season.

if Eugene Smith flames out and has a terrible year, it will only be because of some mitigating factors which aren't his fault, and he's surely be Peyton Manning if he were in KC. On the contrary if Eugene Smith plays well someplace else, it will be because he's a once in a generation talent and the rest of his team will get no credit for any of it.

People already claim that the 49ers losing the NFC championship a year ago proves that Alex Smith sucks. He took a team to the conference championship game - took them within a muffed punt of the super bowl - and this is said to prove he's not good enough to get to the super bowl.

In fact, just to take it out to the conclusion, if Alex Smith were to immediately win a super bowl here this year, people would still say that it was stupid to trade for him because Eugene has a chance to win more super bowls in the future.

The likelihood is truly that neither of these guys will ever win a Super Bowl though. It's no use.
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Old 03-25-2013, 05:04 AM   #186
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Originally Posted by keg in kc View Post
If by trolling, you mean trolling for trade offers, then you better hope they don't get one, that they're stuck with the pick and just say **** it and draft him.

I think if he was their guy, we'd already know it. They don't really have anything to gain by blowing smoke if their actual intention is to draft him. It's not like anybody can leapfrog them.

They seem really interested in trading down. Which if it happens means he ain't our pick whether they like him or not.
I think their poker match is with Albert. They are showing he and his agent that they are willing and able(#1 pick) to roll without him. That alone should bring his price down if he truly wants to stay here as he says. Then we shop him for a 2nd and a future and get zero takers(that we know of) and he gets an idea of how the rest of the league values him. A top LT should garner a 2nd and change easy. Now, we ride our bluff until he cracks, or draft day. Whichever comes first.
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Old 03-25-2013, 05:22 AM   #187
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Originally Posted by Go to Hell View Post
If Alex Smith didn't suck ass, dipshit, he wouldn't have to mount those comebacks.
Yourre a real idiot. how many games are blowouts? even the best qbs are coming back often because of poor play or the because the opposing offense is answering. The win is what matters and when you get that w in the fourth quarter means alot. Shut your unappreciative punk ass mouth. Nothing you say is worth anything.
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Old 03-25-2013, 07:19 AM   #188
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Originally Posted by HotCarl View Post
AlexSmithDynasty, it's all heads I win/tails you lose around here. Smith doesn't get credit when the team wins, he only gets blame if they lose. The same thing will happen this coming season.

if Eugene Smith flames out and has a terrible year, it will only be because of some mitigating factors which aren't his fault, and he's surely be Peyton Manning if he were in KC. On the contrary if Eugene Smith plays well someplace else, it will be because he's a once in a generation talent and the rest of his team will get no credit for any of it.

People already claim that the 49ers losing the NFC championship a year ago proves that Alex Smith sucks. He took a team to the conference championship game - took them within a muffed punt of the super bowl - and this is said to prove he's not good enough to get to the super bowl.

In fact, just to take it out to the conclusion, if Alex Smith were to immediately win a super bowl here this year, people would still say that it was stupid to trade for him because Eugene has a chance to win more super bowls in the future.

The likelihood is truly that neither of these guys will ever win a Super Bowl though. It's no use.
There is absolute no guarantee in the NFL for a QB to win a Super Bowl no matter who you are. However I'd give Geno Smith a 10 year opportunity with a team that drafts him and would give Alex Smith a 3 year opportunity to prove he can win a Super Bowl with the Chiefs assuming that he lives up to what Andy Reid expectations of him are. (not mine)

Geno Smith being a young prospect with little to no durability issues and Alex Smith with red flags at durability issues. Then the passing aspect. Alex Smith relies on the run game to set up the pass and doesn't throw much over 25 times a game and if he is asked to do so asking for trouble. Geno Smith otoh can pass 40 to 45 times a game with great accuracy he has proved it in college just needs to prove it in the pros.
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Old 03-25-2013, 07:40 AM   #189
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If the Jaguars pass on Geno, I want our new GM fired immediately for crimes against Jacksonville.
They won't get the chance. Can you say leapfrogged?
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Old 03-25-2013, 08:49 AM   #190
WayneBowe WayneBowe is offline
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Read this shit

Spoiler!
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Old 03-25-2013, 08:55 AM   #191
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Read this shit

Spoiler!
thx. that was interesting. it affirms my belief in Geno being a cerebral person & a late bloomer.
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Old 03-25-2013, 09:02 AM   #192
WayneBowe WayneBowe is offline
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Yourre a real idiot. how many games are blowouts? even the best qbs are coming back often because of poor play or the because the opposing offense is answering. The win is what matters and when you get that w in the fourth quarter means alot. Shut your unappreciative punk ass mouth. Nothing you say is worth anything.
Just a little bit of friendly advice, If you're going to call someone "A real idiot" make sure you don't misspell things. You're welcome.
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Old 03-25-2013, 09:40 AM   #193
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They won't get the chance. Can you say leapfrogged?
I'll be here on draft day to laugh you into suicide
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Old 03-25-2013, 10:03 AM   #194
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Holy ****ing shit, I'm sick hearing about Geno Smith.
Just wait till the raiders take him and beat us twice a year for the next decade plus.
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Old 03-25-2013, 11:35 AM   #195
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Nah, there arent over inflated expectations. Only those of Chiefs fans. I havent heard a single "expert" claim him as a cant miss prospect. When that happens, I will change my mind. Until then, to me it is just a bunch of Chiefs fans claiming that because it hasnt been done in three decades, and you have the first pick in the draft, that you have to take one, even if he isnt even a top 10 prospect in the draft. (experts opinions, not mine)

I do think he is the best qb in this class, I just dont think hes a franchise saving qb.......by the way. NEITHER IS ALEX SMITH.....
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