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Old 03-22-2013, 11:53 PM  
Fat Elvis Fat Elvis is offline
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Do Geno fans have overinflated expectations?

Suppose we take Geno with the number one overall pick. What kind of career can we realistically expect from him? Realistically--if we actually use the statistics Geno fans like to toss around (especially those who hate Alex Smith)--statistics from www.pro-football-reference.com , we can, on average, expect Geno Smith-or any number 1 draft pick- to be Brad Johnson.

Is Brad Johnson a franchise QB?

Right now, from an overall career standpoint, Alex Smith isn't even a Brad Johnson according to pro-football-reference. However, looking at his last couple of years, his best years, he has topped Brad Johnson compared to Johnson's best two years when you look at QB rating.

If Reid and Dorsey believe that Alex Smith is on an upward trajectory careerwise, then we got him for a steal.

Anyway, here is an interesting article about draft picks based upon expected Career Approximate Values for each draft slot which argues that the current draft value chart is outdated and a new one needs to replace it. It was created by a Harvard economics student. The upshot of the value chart basically says that high draft picks are currently over-rated and mid-round draft picks are under-rated.

http://harvardsportsanalysis.wordpre...l-draft-picks/

Kind of interesting and worth the read.
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Old 03-23-2013, 08:32 AM   #46
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Originally Posted by Ponderception View Post
There is a part of me that thinks that KC will try to have the best QB situation possible going into next year.

IMO, that would mean Alex, Geno, Chase + Stanzi/Tanney as camp fodder.
Denial can be a fun safe place, just for awhile though then reality hits and you then must 'pay the piper'.

But I do like your fantasy world though
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Old 03-23-2013, 08:36 AM   #47
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Originally Posted by Go to Hell View Post
Are you ignoring recent developments?

Albert is out of here.

We're taking Joeckel.

Best case scenario we trade down and pick one of the other OTs and get someone else in the 2nd.

But the dream of Geno has never been deader.
No I am not.

Geno at #1
Terron Armstead, OT, Arkansas Pine-Bluff in the 2nd.
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Old 03-23-2013, 08:42 AM   #48
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Originally Posted by Coogs View Post
No I am not.

Geno at #1
Terron Armstead, OT, Arkansas Pine-Bluff in the 2nd.
I will suck your dick if this comes to pass.
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Old 03-23-2013, 08:42 AM   #49
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Originally Posted by Rausch View Post
I think all we can really expect is a guy that come here an' by year 2 (at the latest) is ready to take over and has earned the chance to start. By year 3 you would expect a top 20 QB.

All this is the minimum expected of any top 10 QB pick...
People seem to have not read the article (not saying you haven't), but we are talking about the #1 overall pick, not a top 10 QB pick. The article states, and I hate to temper anyone's enthusiasm (or blind ballwashing devotion), that if you use the #1 overall pick on a QB you can expect to draft, on average, Brad Johnson. All the emotion of the pick is stripped out. Based on statistics, and statistics alone, you are drafting someone with a Career Approximate Value of Brad Johnson. (The article also states that a couple of other players with the same CAV would include Rodney Harrison and Corey Dillon.)

So let me rephrase the question: Would you be disappointed if you drafted a Brad Johnson, Rodney Harrison or a Corey Dillon with the #1 overall pick?

I think folks expect a whole lot more than that with the #1 overall pick, and I think that is what is feeding the Geno frenzy. I think the emotional investment from fans warps expectations (I am guilty of it too) because we naively believe our picks somehow magically have more potential
and value than they really do.

That said, I still want Geno as the number 1 pick. I've stated it many times on this forum and have a "Bank on it" thread somewhere.
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Old 03-23-2013, 08:42 AM   #50
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Originally Posted by Chiefs Pantalones View Post
Do people still think we're taking a QB with the first pick?
Why not? Other than ILB its the weakest position on the team.
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Old 03-23-2013, 08:44 AM   #51
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Originally Posted by Dave Lane View Post
Why not? Other than ILB its the weakest position on the team.
Not now because we have Captain America !!!
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Old 03-23-2013, 08:44 AM   #52
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Fat Elvis View Post
People seem to have not read the article (not saying you haven't), but we are talking about the #1 overall pick, not a top 10 QB pick. The article states, and I hate to temper anyone's enthusiasm (or blind ballwashing devotion), that if you use the #1 overall pick on a QB you can expect to draft, on average, Brad Johnson. All the emotion of the pick is stripped out. Based on statistics, and statistics alone, you are drafting someone with a Career Approximate Value of Brad Johnson. (The article also states that a couple of other players with the same CAV would include Rodney Harrison and Corey Dillon.)

So let me rephrase the question: Would you be disappointed if you drafted a Brad Johnson, Rodney Harrison or a Corey Dillon with the #1 overall pick?

I think folks expect a whole lot more than that with the #1 overall pick, and I think that is what is feeding the Geno frenzy. I think the emotional investment from fans warps expectations (I am guilty of it too) because we naively because our picks somehow magically have more potential
and value than they really do.

That said, I still want Geno as the number 1 pick. I've stated it many times on this forum and have a "Bank on it" thread somewhere.
I will roll the dice on the most important position in sports EVERY time till I have a true franchise QB then continue to take shots at one every draft at some point if possible.
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High Tech is Sorcery and the people who are really powerful are literally telling people to commit crimes using the psychic interspace created by the WWW and Wireless. They are controlling peoples actions like drones . The two things are deeply intertwined. The more man's brain interfaces with machines the creepier it gets. They use brains separate from a human body in a supercomputer and you have The Image of the Beast. The military has been doing this since the 50s
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Old 03-23-2013, 08:53 AM   #53
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Originally Posted by Go to Hell View Post
I will suck your dick if this comes to pass.
Appreciate the offer, but I think I will pass.

I think this new regime is doing its due diligence with regards to every position.

Even though we spent a 2nd (and a conditional) on Alex Smith, they owe him nothing.

Listening to the trade down offers are a must. If someone offers a deal too good to be true, you have to have your bases covered with the rest of the QB's in the draft... just in case.

And if we have to trade Albert...

Not my favorite choice, but it is what it is. We don't have to spend a first to replace him.
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Old 03-23-2013, 09:00 AM   #54
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No I am not.

Geno at #1
Terron Armstead, OT, Arkansas Pine-Bluff in the 2nd.
I'd rather have Kyle Long.
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Old 03-23-2013, 09:05 AM   #55
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I'd rather have Kyle Long.
I'm OK with that. Just pointing out there are other options than OT in the 1st round.
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Old 03-23-2013, 09:06 AM   #56
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I'd rather have Kyle Long.
Howie's black sheep kid which is fine.
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Old 03-23-2013, 09:18 AM   #57
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Originally Posted by Dave Lane View Post
I will roll the dice on the most important position in sports EVERY time till I have a true franchise QB then continue to take shots at one every draft at some point if possible.
I don't know what you mean by this. I think everyone has a different definition of "true franchise quarterback."

How long do you give a draft pick to establish himself to be a "true franchise quarterback"?

How can a quarterback establish himself as a "true franchise quarterback" if you are constantly (every year by your words) drafting for one? Maybe I'm misunderstanding what you are saying.

I think people are throwing around these vague words thinking that everyone else has the same definition of what these words mean in their respective minds.

What is a true franchise quarterback? I don't understand what people think that means.

I think people like using that phrase because it is a "good thing" but it is hard to define. I suppose it is kind of like pornography; it is hard to define, but you know what it is when you see it.

Would you consider Brad Johnson a franchise quarterback? Would you consider McNabb a franchise QB? Would you consider Brad Johnson more of a franchise QB than McNabb or the other way around? Why?
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Old 03-23-2013, 09:26 AM   #58
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KC drafts Geno, trades Chubby Chase for a fourth rounder, KC drafts second coming of Jared Allen with extra fourth round pick. KC wins multiple Superbowls with Geno and "Jared".

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Old 03-23-2013, 09:30 AM   #59
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Originally Posted by Fat Elvis View Post
I don't know what you mean by this. I think everyone has a different definition of "true franchise quarterback."

How long do you give a draft pick to establish himself to be a "true franchise quarterback"?

How can a quarterback establish himself as a "true franchise quarterback" if you are constantly (every year by your words) drafting for one? Maybe I'm misunderstanding what you are saying.

I think people are throwing around these vague words thinking that everyone else has the same definition of what these words mean in their respective minds.

What is a true franchise quarterback? I don't understand what people think that means.

I think people like using that phrase because it is a "good thing" but it is hard to define. I suppose it is kind of like pornography; it is hard to define, but you know what it is when you see it.

Would you consider Brad Johnson a franchise quarterback? Would you consider McNabb a franchise QB? Would you consider Brad Johnson more of a franchise QB than McNabb or the other way around? Why?
You give the guy at least three years to develop. Brad Johnson is not a franchise QB. McNabb was a franchise QB. A franchise QB is any QB that is able to take the team on his back and lead them to victory.
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Old 03-23-2013, 09:31 AM   #60
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I bet it has more to do with the fact that he had three great years in college, a great combine, a great pro day, and appears to be a really great human being as well. Who wouldn't want someone like that to be their franchise QB?
You just described Ricky Stanzi.
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