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Old 03-22-2013, 11:53 PM  
Fat Elvis Fat Elvis is offline
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Do Geno fans have overinflated expectations?

Suppose we take Geno with the number one overall pick. What kind of career can we realistically expect from him? Realistically--if we actually use the statistics Geno fans like to toss around (especially those who hate Alex Smith)--statistics from www.pro-football-reference.com , we can, on average, expect Geno Smith-or any number 1 draft pick- to be Brad Johnson.

Is Brad Johnson a franchise QB?

Right now, from an overall career standpoint, Alex Smith isn't even a Brad Johnson according to pro-football-reference. However, looking at his last couple of years, his best years, he has topped Brad Johnson compared to Johnson's best two years when you look at QB rating.

If Reid and Dorsey believe that Alex Smith is on an upward trajectory careerwise, then we got him for a steal.

Anyway, here is an interesting article about draft picks based upon expected Career Approximate Values for each draft slot which argues that the current draft value chart is outdated and a new one needs to replace it. It was created by a Harvard economics student. The upshot of the value chart basically says that high draft picks are currently over-rated and mid-round draft picks are under-rated.

http://harvardsportsanalysis.wordpre...l-draft-picks/

Kind of interesting and worth the read.
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Old 03-23-2013, 11:01 AM   #91
Tribal Warfare Tribal Warfare is offline
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courtesy of GC
Furthermore, it would be nice to be comfortable with a QB in the clutch, and when someone asks you if you are worried during a game when KC is down needing a FG or TD to win. All you have to say is " No, because we have _insert badass QB here_ and he's going to do _insert badass QB here_ shit now."
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Old 03-23-2013, 11:03 AM   #92
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Originally Posted by Crush View Post
The Donks just scored and it is 23-19 with 2:36 left in the game. Do you trust that your QB is capable of carrying the team on his back and orchestrate the epic last second TD drive? If yes, you have a franchise QB. If no, you need to keep looking until you find one.
Does it count if he has a good team around him?
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Old 03-23-2013, 11:03 AM   #93
Rausch Rausch is offline
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Originally Posted by Fat Elvis View Post
No, they don't. That is the whole point.
Yes, they do.

At most you'll go one draft without a franchise guy drafted but most years there's at least one.

The deciding factor is if you're both luck and smart enough to identify that guy...
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Old 03-23-2013, 11:13 AM   #94
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What percentage of busts are because of the team that drafted them? By the term "team" I am including owners, FO and coaches. I am sure that there have been several QBs that would have been successful if they would have been put into a better situation.
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Alex Smith is really talented. BIG arm, very mobile.
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Old 03-23-2013, 11:14 AM   #95
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Originally Posted by Fat Elvis View Post
The article doesn't treat Geno as a plain-vanilla generic player. The article looks at #1 overall picks. Period. Geno isn't part of the equation in terms of the article. Geno is only part of the equation in this discussion because we have been talking about taking Geno with that first pick and talking as though it is a franchise saving move. Crush is proof positive of this when he gives examples of "franchise quarterbacks."

We aren't talking about first round talent; we are talking about the first pick. Typically, you aren't going to get a player that Crush describes, you are going to get a Brad Johnson type of player. A player that everyone says isn't a franchise QB.

This is simply a matter of stripping out the emotion.
Yes, I know the article doesn't specifically discuss Geno Smith, but it treats draft pick slots as generic players and talks about value of that pick in terms of previous statistics instead of the individual attributes of that particular prospect. I'm not criticizing the article, I actually think it's very good. I'm pointing out that it has the same predictive flaw that those who use the draft position of prior super bowl winning QBs to make a case for "trying" by taking a QB in the first round (or with the first pick) in a particular draft.

It's probably pretty good for predicting results on average over a long period, but it's not so good for predicting results of a specific pick. For example, if the 1.1 pick is used on a QB this year, it's pretty unlikely that they'll end up with a QB whose Career Approximate Value is extremely close to that of Brad Johnson (like +/- 1 or 2 points). Like someone else said, it's probably more like a bell curve distribution around BJ.

I'm not being critical of the article. I'm being critical of anyone who would try to misuse the article.
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Old 03-23-2013, 11:26 AM   #96
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All this article says is that for every Peyton Manning you have a Jamarcus Russell, so the player that falls in the middle of those types is Brad Johnson. In a perfect world of averages, you end up with Brad Johnson. It doesn't take into account the strength and/or weakness of each draft class, or a teams proclivity for screwing up the draft or drafting well.
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Old 03-23-2013, 11:38 AM   #97
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Lol Barkley?


Yeah, he's Cassel's lil bro
Yea, Because Cassel threw for 112 TD's and over 12,000 @ USC

The only comparison you have is USC.
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Old 03-23-2013, 11:39 AM   #98
DTLB58 DTLB58 is offline
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trade down

draft barkley w/mid round pick

win
I'm for this.
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Old 03-23-2013, 11:47 AM   #99
Alex Smith 4Ever Alex Smith 4Ever is offline
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7 of the 9 teams drafting behind us desperately need a QB. If Geno was a great prospect, why isn't anyone trying to trade up?
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Old 03-23-2013, 11:48 AM   #100
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"That said, it is impossible to predict with any accuracy what a given pick’s CAV will be, as the standard deviations are very large"

In a nutshell, that is what this article says and I agree. I like the PFR "CAV" also as I believe it is relatively accurate.
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Old 03-23-2013, 11:49 AM   #101
KChiefs1 KChiefs1 is offline
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In a word.

YES
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Old 03-23-2013, 11:50 AM   #102
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By your definition, based upon those videos, we have traded for a "franchise QB."
That Saints D was hot garbage. Alex Smith couldn't convert on 3rd down if his life depended on it the next week against the Giants.
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Old 03-23-2013, 11:53 AM   #103
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If Geno IS going to succeed in the NFL, can you think of a better location/environment than KC?

-Quality QB coaches
-Friendly system
-Jamaal Charles
-Dwayne Bowe
-A franchise LT (currently)
-Ability to take his time... doesn't have to rush into starting for the team yet

I can not. Tell me this isn't the PERFECT time to take a guy like Geno who has the arm, athleticism, and the will to get it done.

What that means for the expectations is nothing. It's possible it doesn't work out, but I'll be ****ed if we ever get another opportunity like this in the NEXT 30 years to try and make the home-grown QB thing work.
I agree with a lot this.

You may have a QB controversy before he is ready.
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Old 03-23-2013, 11:55 AM   #104
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Geno Smith is the next Vince Young. Needs another year to ride the bench and grow up. But he will not get it.

He will get thrust into starting role by week 5 and if he doesn't have success it will ruin him.
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Old 03-23-2013, 11:56 AM   #105
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If we really wanted Geno Smith, than we would have just taken him 1st overall instead of trading for Alex Smith.
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