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Old 04-10-2013, 03:43 PM  
Direckshun Direckshun is offline
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I'm now more sure than ever that Geno's going #1 overall.

From the free agency megathread:

Quote:
Jason La Canfora ‏@JasonLaCanfora 28s

The Raiders are signing QB Seneca Wallace after working him out, Tyler Thigpen and perhaps others
The Raiders are signing up so many QBs that it is now virtually impossible they would take Geno Smith, even if he was available at #3 overall.

And they'd be theoretically passing on him for Seneca Wallace, Terrell (sp?) Pryor and maybe even Tyler ****ing Thigpen.

What's far more likely, is what some of us already suspect: they're not passing on him at all.

Like all of the QB-specific movement that immediately pre-dated the Geno visit in KC, I think the worst kept secret behind the closed doors of GM offices across the league is that Geno Smith is officially off the board at #1 overall.

I personally think it is down to the Eagles and the Jaguars. The Eagles want Geno as a developmental guy behind Vick, and the Jags, who are largely believed to like Geno, don't want to get jumped, a la Browns with Trent Richardson last year.

And then there's the least likely option, but one I think is still somehow alive: that the Chiefs actually think Geno fits what they're trying to do, and can be special, and that they will take Geno #1 overall if the compensation they are offered for trading down isn't sexy enough.

I may have my head up my ass, as I so often do. But I think the reasonable assumption to make from here on out that Geno Smith is known league-wide to be the first overall pick. The league almost certainly knows who the players for that pick are. And I'm willing to bet the league almost certainly assumes the Chiefs are not in the running for Geno. There has been absolutely no smoke for that particular fire to be real.
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Old 04-11-2013, 03:36 PM   #181
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Originally Posted by Just Passin' By View Post
Where did I say there was no luck involved? At some level, every pick is lucky. The Colts are lucky they drafted #1 in the years of Manning and Luck. The Chiefs aren't lucky in that way.

What I said was that saying they were lucky is stupid, specifically because
So what about the Packers drafting a QB in the first round with the full intention of having him take over for Favre, sitting him on the bench for three years, and purposefully throwing Favre into the dumpster even though he was still playing pretty good football? Is that the same amount of luck that went into the Tom Brady pick at 199th overall?
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Old 04-11-2013, 03:36 PM   #182
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Originally Posted by Just Passin' By View Post
It's not a false equivalence and, again, you're smart enough to know that. You are also smart enough to know that you find SB winning QBs outside the first round just about as often as you find them inside the first round. The data backs that up.

If it was all about being taken #1, or even taken in the first round, Alex Smith would still be in SF.
Do you know what a false equivalence is?

And the data DOESN'T back that up. It only looks that way because there are a lot more QBs that get drafted in six rounds than just the one. When you see all these Tony Romos, Tom Bradys, and Russell Wilsons and say, "HA! See? You don't need to draft a QB in the first round to have a super star!" that's true, yes. It's also far more unlikely given the wide field of QBs that get drafted in rounds 2-7.
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Old 04-11-2013, 04:35 PM   #183
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Originally Posted by SNR View Post
It's illogical because it spits in the face of the fact that great QBs make up such a ****ing huge portion of the Super Bowl Winning probability pie.

The reason why 30 years of failure/30 years of no 1st round QB works is because the first round TENDS TO BE where these guys are to be found. At the very least, drafting a QB in the first round shows that the team is very conscious of how important the QB position is.

If there were the same success rate for teams that vacate all of their draft picks and then win the Super Bowl, MAYBE you'd have an argument.

Until we see some data on that, then yes, it absolutely is a false equivalence.
Where exactly does it show that my statement spits in the face of anything?

All it does is point out the fact that not picking a QB #1 doesn't throw every pick away. That great teams are still built through the draft regardless of whether or not they drafted a QB to get there.

For as many times as you can come up with a 1st round pick getting a team to the playoffs, I'll show you just as many 1st round picks who didn't get to the playoffs.

Furthermore, I'll show you QB's winning in the playoffs that weren't 1st round picks.

You don't NEED a first round QB to make it to the playoffs. You don't NEED a first round QB to win in the playoffs, and you don't NEED a first round QB to win a super bowl.

Those statements aren't illogical, what is illogical, however, is suggesting you DO need a first round QB to get anywhere in this league.
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Old 04-11-2013, 04:44 PM   #184
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Exoter175 View Post
Where exactly does it show that my statement spits in the face of anything?

All it does is point out the fact that not picking a QB #1 doesn't throw every pick away. That great teams are still built through the draft regardless of whether or not they drafted a QB to get there.

For as many times as you can come up with a 1st round pick getting a team to the playoffs, I'll show you just as many 1st round picks who didn't get to the playoffs.

Furthermore, I'll show you QB's winning in the playoffs that weren't 1st round picks.

You don't NEED a first round QB to make it to the playoffs. You don't NEED a first round QB to win in the playoffs, and you don't NEED a first round QB to win a super bowl.

Those statements aren't illogical, what is illogical, however, is suggesting you DO need a first round QB to get anywhere in this league.
The illogical statement was, "Why is it so important to draft a QB just because it hasn't been done in 30 years? The team also hasn't vacated all of its draft picks in 30 years, maybe it should try doing that."
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Old 04-11-2013, 04:45 PM   #185
JASONSAUTO JASONSAUTO is offline
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Originally Posted by Exoter175 View Post
What is more likely? The Chiefs trading the #1 pick to a division rival? Or the Raiders trading up to #2 or selecting Geno with the #3, KNOWING that if we stay in the #1 spot, we won't waste the pick on Geno?
Why would you call it a waste?
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Old 04-11-2013, 04:48 PM   #186
Exoter175 Exoter175 is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by SNR View Post
The illogical statement was, "Why is it so important to draft a QB just because it hasn't been done in 30 years? The team also hasn't vacated all of its draft picks in 30 years, maybe it should try doing that."
Quote it, I don't believe you can.
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Old 04-11-2013, 04:50 PM   #187
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Exoter175 View Post
Quote it, I don't believe you can.
http://www.chiefsplanet.com/BB/showp...&postcount=151

To which you said...


Quote:
Originally Posted by Exoter175 View Post
This post made my day, because he really hits on a point most Chiefs fans are too drowned in koolaid to understand.
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Old 04-11-2013, 04:51 PM   #188
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Originally Posted by JASONSAUTO View Post
Why would you call it a waste?
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Because we won't be spending a pick on Geno Smith period. That's why.

Why spend a pick on a QB who's no better than your 2nd and 3rd string guys, after you just gave up two 2nd's for a starting QB you think could be the last piece to your playoff puzzle, when you can sign a tackle, guard, Wide Receiver, or whatever, that instantly makes your team better.

Drafting Geno #1 overall doesn't make us immediately better. You know what does?

Joeckel, Warmack, Lotuleilei, Fisher, Milliner, etc.
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Old 04-11-2013, 04:53 PM   #189
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Originally Posted by Exoter175 View Post
Because we won't be spending a pick on Geno Smith period. That's why.

Why spend a pick on a QB who's no better than your 2nd and 3rd string guys, after you just gave up two 2nd's for a starting QB you think could be the last piece to your playoff puzzle, when you can sign a tackle, guard, Wide Receiver, or whatever, that instantly makes your team better.

Drafting Geno #1 overall doesn't make us immediately better. You know what does?

Joeckel, Warmack, Lotuleilei, Fisher, Milliner, etc.
Nothing makes us immediately better except MAYBE a pass rusher. Our 1.1 pick is just not going to have much of an opportunity to make a difference in his rookie year. It's that ****ing simple.

Unless you're advocating drafting an ILB, G, C, or RB2 at 1.1

May as well take a ****ing QB
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Old 04-11-2013, 04:57 PM   #190
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Safety Sherrod Martin from the Panthers is visiting the Chiefs today and tommorow. Also are bringing in a unknown player from defensive side tommorow.
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Old 04-11-2013, 04:58 PM   #191
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Originally Posted by SNR View Post
You didn't quote it.

The statement he made was putting the shoe on the other foot and pointing out how stupid your statement was using irony as a tool for comparison.

You are also making several assumptions in your statement for what he "meant" by that statement, and not actually what he "said".

So its safe to say you don't understand why I said that statement made my day.

Work on that whole comprehension thing.
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Old 04-11-2013, 05:04 PM   #192
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Originally Posted by Exoter175 View Post
You didn't quote it.

The statement he made was putting the shoe on the other foot and pointing out how stupid your statement was using irony as a tool for comparison.
It was a ****ing fallacy, you moron. For reasons I've already ****ing explained.

A: Drafting a QB in the first round is the most likely way to find a franchise starter. We haven't done so in 30 years. Maybe we should change that.
B: You also haven't vacated all your draft picks. Do you want to change to that strategy?

That's what he ****ing said, right? That's a fallacy. It's the exact same thing as:

A: All my friends built successful football teams by drafting a QB in the first round.
B: If all your friends jumped off a bridge, would you do it too?
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Old 04-11-2013, 05:05 PM   #193
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Originally Posted by SNR View Post
Nothing makes us immediately better except MAYBE a pass rusher. Our 1.1 pick is just not going to have much of an opportunity to make a difference in his rookie year. It's that ****ing simple.

Unless you're advocating drafting an ILB, G, C, or RB2 at 1.1

May as well take a ****ing QB
God, you couldn't be more wrong.

In our style of a 3-4, we don't need another pass rusher, we have plenty. Tamba Hali and Justin Houston really are all the pass rushers we need. DE's in our style of a 3-4 are less about pass rushing technique and more about a bull rush/run stopping approach. So saying we need a pass rusher, or that the only thing that could make this team better is a pass rusher, is stupid. That just adds depth.

We could immediately use:

1. RT
2. LG
3. Center

Positions that Joeckel, Fisher, and/or Warmack could fill immediately. And saying the 1.1 isn't going to make a difference in his rookie year is the most idiotic thing I've heard in quite a long time, our 1.1 will be an immediate starter on this team. If that isn't "making a difference" I don't know what is.

We could also immediately use:

1. Wide Receiver
2. Inside Linebacker
3. Cornerback

Guys like Patterson, Austin, Te'o, Milliner, Rhodes, and Ogletree.


If we could ask for a best case scenario, its going to be trading back with the Bills, Jets, or whomever into the 8-17 range, and picking up an extra pick or two.

Drafting Geno smith would be a major setback to this regime.
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Old 04-11-2013, 05:07 PM   #194
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For someone who says you don't NEED a first round QB to be succesful, it's a little ironic that same person says you need to spend the first overall pick on a LG or C, or for that matter a CB when we just signed 2 in free agency to start, or a 34 ILB.
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Old 04-11-2013, 05:08 PM   #195
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Exoter175 View Post
God, you couldn't be more wrong.

In our style of a 3-4, we don't need another pass rusher, we have plenty. Tamba Hali and Justin Houston really are all the pass rushers we need. DE's in our style of a 3-4 are less about pass rushing technique and more about a bull rush/run stopping approach. So saying we need a pass rusher, or that the only thing that could make this team better is a pass rusher, is stupid. That just adds depth.

We could immediately use:

1. RT
2. LG
3. Center

Positions that Joeckel, Fisher, and/or Warmack could fill immediately. And saying the 1.1 isn't going to make a difference in his rookie year is the most idiotic thing I've heard in quite a long time, our 1.1 will be an immediate starter on this team. If that isn't "making a difference" I don't know what is.

We could also immediately use:

1. Wide Receiver
2. Inside Linebacker
3. Cornerback

Guys like Patterson, Austin, Te'o, Milliner, Rhodes, and Ogletree.


If we could ask for a best case scenario, its going to be trading back with the Bills, Jets, or whomever into the 8-17 range, and picking up an extra pick or two.

Drafting Geno smith would be a major setback to this regime.
You advocate drafting a RT, LG, C, WR, ILB, or a CB at 1.1?

I'm just trying to make sure you're really this dumb. I want to get this right.
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