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Old 01-05-2014, 02:41 PM  
DaFace DaFace is offline
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The role of luck in sports

When you really think about it, an enormous amount of an NFL team's success comes from luck. Yes, solid drafting, FA moves, coaching, etc. all push you in the right direction, but there's clearly not a lot of true skill involved in things like plucking Tom Brady out of the 6th round of the draft or having the #1 pick on the year that Andrew Luck is available.

It's the same thing both within a season (having an easy vs. hard schedule) and even during a given game (injuries galore yesterday).

If I were to arbitrarily pull a number out of my ass, I'd say that only around 60% of a team's success in the NFL is under the control of the team's management and 40% just has to fall in place. (You can debate the exact proportions, but the point still stands.)

So...

Does luck make the game more fun? Or does it just suck? On the one hand, it makes games we end up winning because of good fortune a lot of fun, but man...it's tough to invest so much time over a season to a game that comes down to nothing but a weighted coin flip in the end.
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Old 01-05-2014, 02:56 PM   #2
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The fact that records typically range from 2-14 to 14-2 in most seasons would imply that luck is not a huge factor between franchises. Talent trumps luck.

Within a franchise, luck may move a team a couple of games up or down in the win column. That's enough to have a notable impact on their season. Within a game, luck obviously plays a role, but per my theory above, it may impact the actual outcome of a game a couple of times per season.

The big luck wildcard, though, is injuries. I would count this as a different category than luck in play execution. Bad luck with an injury changes the talent pool, which produces a much bigger swing.

So in order, I would estimate the impacts as being:

Talent - 60%
Luck as it relates to injuries - 25%
Luck as it relates to play execution - 15%

I guess talent should include a luck aspect for talent acquisition, per the initial post. I'm not sure how to estimate the weight of that.
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Old 01-05-2014, 02:57 PM   #3
Guru Guru is offline
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all I know is the Chiefs don't have luck.
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Old 01-05-2014, 02:58 PM   #4
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I'd say he played a huge role yesterday.
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Old 01-05-2014, 02:59 PM   #5
Deberg_1990 Deberg_1990 is offline
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Indy tanks a season and gets Lucky with Luck

Chiefs tank a season when there is shit for impact players.
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Originally Posted by Cassel's Reckoning:

Matt once made a very nice play in Seattle where he spun away from a pass rusher and hit Bowe off his back foot for a first down.

One of the best plays Matt has ever made.
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Old 01-05-2014, 03:02 PM   #6
DaFace DaFace is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Deberg_1990 View Post
Indy tanks a season and gets Lucky with Luck

Chiefs tank a season when there is shit for impact players.
I read the other day that the NBA is considering eliminating the whole draft order based on record thing entirely and just going with a rotation to keep teams from throwing games at the end of the season. Honestly, I'm not sure why that's not more of an issue.
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Old 01-05-2014, 03:05 PM   #7
Deberg_1990 Deberg_1990 is offline
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Originally Posted by DaFace View Post
I read the other day that the NBA is considering eliminating the whole draft order based on record thing entirely and just going with a rotation to keep teams from throwing games at the end of the season. Honestly, I'm not sure why that's not more of an issue.
Understandable. There are a ton of NBA teams tanking this year.

I truly think Indy tanked in 2011 as well, although we will never know. Smart move if they did.
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Originally Posted by Cassel's Reckoning:

Matt once made a very nice play in Seattle where he spun away from a pass rusher and hit Bowe off his back foot for a first down.

One of the best plays Matt has ever made.
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Old 01-05-2014, 03:05 PM   #8
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Deberg_1990 View Post
Indy tanks a season and gets Lucky with Luck

Chiefs tank a season when there is shit for impact players.
The chiefs did t even try to tank the season they tried to win they just sucked that bad. Colts Intentionally sucked that bad. They made an effort to stay shitty by keeping Curtis painter in there. They didn't even try to sign a vet off the street to start or trade for one.


Chiefs do it the legit way and get screwed. Colts, did it intentionally and get rewarded. That's more then luck. That's something else.
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Old 01-05-2014, 03:12 PM   #9
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"Luck is what happens when preparation meets opportunity"

Nuff said
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Old 01-05-2014, 03:25 PM   #10
GloucesterChief GloucesterChief is offline
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The Colts tanking didn't have anything to do with luck. I am pretty sure they did it on purpose. Of course, they can't admit that but it was on purpose.
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Old 01-05-2014, 03:58 PM   #11
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Originally Posted by GloucesterChief View Post
The Colts tanking didn't have anything to do with luck. I am pretty sure they did it on purpose. Of course, they can't admit that but it was on purpose.
actually it had everything to do with luck.
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Old 01-05-2014, 04:00 PM   #12
Deberg_1990 Deberg_1990 is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by GloucesterChief View Post
The Colts tanking didn't have anything to do with luck.
Ok
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Originally Posted by Cassel's Reckoning:

Matt once made a very nice play in Seattle where he spun away from a pass rusher and hit Bowe off his back foot for a first down.

One of the best plays Matt has ever made.
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Old 01-05-2014, 04:04 PM   #13
Guru Guru is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by JASONSAUTO View Post
actually it had everything to do with Luck.
FYP. it had everything to do with Luck. capital L
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Old 01-05-2014, 04:06 PM   #14
JASONSAUTO JASONSAUTO is offline
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FYP. it had everything to do with Luck. capital L
same difference to me
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Old 01-05-2014, 04:06 PM   #15
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Originally Posted by DaFace View Post
I read the other day that the NBA is considering eliminating the whole draft order based on record thing entirely and just going with a rotation to keep teams from throwing games at the end of the season. Honestly, I'm not sure why that's not more of an issue.
NBA is a different breed. One player can change so much in basketball compared to any other sport.
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