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Old 07-04-2013, 10:03 AM  
Direckshun Direckshun is offline
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Happy 4th: no country has recovered from the Great Recession better than the US.

It's pretty clear that in virtually every economic indicator, the United States recovery from the recession is stronger than every other country on earth. The major difference between us and Europe is that Europe exercised austerity, while the American government exercised stimulus.

Other powerhouse countries, like Brazil and (to a much greater extent) Russia have suffered from inept leadership, and India and China are dealing with extremely difficult problems threatening to hold up or, in China's cast, partially collapse their economies.

This piece is a criticism of the Federal Reserve threatening to pare back its support for the American (and thus) global economy. But it greatly rebuts the idea that America's standing has even remotely diminished as the leading economic powerhouse on the planet. All that's happened is that standing has become more resolute, with a pretty effective recovery still on the horizon.

http://drezner.foreignpolicy.com/pos...ic_hegemon_now

Who's your economic hegemon now?
Posted By Daniel W. Drezner
Friday, June 21, 2013 - 1:29 PM

Hey, remember how, after the 2008 financial crisis, a lot of Really Smart People said that the United States had reached the end of influence or a post-American world? How the accumulated ills of the U.S. economy were leading to a decline in American hegemony, or even the end of power itself? How the BRICS were the new new thing?

I bring this up because, five years after the financial crisis rally heated up, we confront this New York Times front-pager by Nathaniel Popper:

Quote:
Despite a partial recovery in the markets on Friday, tumbling stock, bond and commodity prices around the world over the past month are demonstrating just how reliant the global economy has become on the monetary policies of the Federal Reserve.

In the weeks since the Fed’s chairman, Ben S. Bernanke, first indicated that the central bank might start to pare back its support for the economy, markets in Asia, Europe and Latin America have fallen even more sharply than those in the United States, threatening economic growth in many countries.

While leading market measures in the United States have declined 4 percent over the last month, an index of the world’s stock markets has slumped more than 6 percent.

“The Fed isn’t just the U.S.'s central bank. It’s the world’s central bank,” said Mark Frey, the chief strategist at the Cambridge Mercantile Group....

The selling picked up in markets around the world on Thursday, a day after Mr. Bernanke’s latest comments on the Fed’s plan to wind down the stimulus. While the reason for the shift by the Fed is good — a strengthening of the recovery in the United States — investors are nervous that the global economy may not be ready.

The heavy selling was a sharp reversal after years when low interest rates in the United States encouraged investors to put their money into foreign countries. For investors in once-attractive foreign markets, the fear was that those markets may be on even less firm economic footing than the United States’, and consequently less able to absorb the decline in lending that comes along with rising interest rates.

“When the U.S. embarks upon policies that are appropriate for its own domestic circumstances, it can impose policies on the rest of the world that aren’t necessarily appropriate to them,” said Darren Williams, the senior European economist at AllianceBernstein in London.
Surely, however, that rising economic superpower called "China" is ready to save the day, right? Wait, what's this?

Quote:
Thursday was a very bad day for China’s economy, the world’s second-largest and a crucial pillar of the global economy, with credit markets freezing up in an unnerving parallel to the first days of the U.S. financial collapse. The question of how bad depends on whom you talk to, how much faith you have in Chinese leaders and, unfortunately, several factors that are largely unknowable. But we do know two things. First, Chinese leaders appear to be causing this problem deliberately, likely to try to avert a much worse problem. And, second, if this continues and even it works, it could see China’s economy finally cool after years of breakneck growth, with serious repercussions for the rest of us.
Read the whole thing - as well as this Bloomberg story -- to understand why China is acting the way it is.

[But what about the rest of the BRIC economies?!--ed. Let's see, Brazil is a bit preoccupied at the moment, Russia is starved of capital, and India has its own problems. Oh, OK--ed.]

So who's your hegemon now, huh?

If Americans reading this are beginning to feel jingoistic, however, let me point out that if you think this is all good news, you're nuts. From an economic perspective, it's much better to see all these economies growing robustly. Since they're not, Ben Bernanke's decision to start talking about tapering off quantitative easing seems rather blinkered. This is for a few simple reasons:

1) As noted above, all of the other potential growth engines in the global economy are either contracting or screeching to a halt;

2) The fiscal headwind of U.S. fiscal policy hasn't been devastating, but it is likely a net drag on the economy. Oh, and inflation? That's nowhere to be seen. The U.S. economy is doing well in comparison to the other developed nations, but it's still not doing all that well. Now is not the time to engage in restrictive monetary policy (or terribly restrictive fiscal policy either).

3) This week Bernanke has been spelling out what the Fed will be doing in 2014 and beyond. Which would be peachy if Bernanke was going to be chairing the Fed then -- except that every indication is that he won't be. So why his word should carry such impact on post-2013 actions is a bit mystifying.

So the good news is that reports of declining U.S. influence have been greatly exaggerated. The bad news is that it's not obvious to me that the U.S. economic leadership is exercising that power responsibly.

Am I missing anything?
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Old 07-06-2013, 12:34 PM   #31
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If Bush was president, inflation would be well known to liberals and they'd blame him for that too
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Old 07-06-2013, 12:44 PM   #32
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Old 07-06-2013, 01:00 PM   #33
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Originally Posted by Mr. Flopnuts View Post
To say there is no inflation right now would be incredibly silly. The cost of everything is going up, except wages. Record corporate profits, and no wage increases for the average worker. At some point, and it will be sooner than later at this point, something will absolutely have to give.
rthis is fun

I don't see prices goining up I see the amount of product going down
my former favorite brand of tortilla chips were 126 oz for 1.99
after a year they are now 10 oz for 1.99


also seen this in kids cereal

and paper towels we get at work have gotten shorter
I would think that would mean retooling the factory

but price stays the same
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Old 07-06-2013, 01:05 PM   #34
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Are we paying debts with printed money?
Then everything in that article means jack and shit.
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Old 07-06-2013, 01:07 PM   #35
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Psyko Tek View Post
rthis is fun

I don't see prices goining up I see the amount of product going down
my former favorite brand of tortilla chips were 126 oz for 1.99
after a year they are now 10 oz for 1.99


also seen this in kids cereal

and paper towels we get at work have gotten shorter
I would think that would mean retooling the factory

but price stays the same
WTF
In other words, the price went up.
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Old 07-06-2013, 06:26 PM   #36
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Quote:
Originally Posted by beach tribe View Post
WTF
In other words, the price went up.
so did unemployment but thats a good thing. Higher prices impact unemployed folk less cause they buy less stuff. Winning!!!
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Old 07-06-2013, 06:38 PM   #37
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Psyko Tek View Post
rthis is fun

I don't see prices goining up I see the amount of product going down
my former favorite brand of tortilla chips were 126 oz for 1.99
after a year they are now 10 oz for 1.99


also seen this in kids cereal

and paper towels we get at work have gotten shorter
I would think that would mean retooling the factory

but price stays the same
Been going on forever.
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Old 07-07-2013, 12:56 AM   #38
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Originally Posted by Prison Bitch View Post
If Bush was president, inflation would be well known to liberals and they'd blame him for that too
Probably. He was horrible.
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Old 07-08-2013, 02:00 AM   #39
Direckshun Direckshun is offline
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Inflation is not particularly a real concern right now. Things are pretty good on the inflation front.

But... whatever.
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Old 07-08-2013, 03:06 AM   #40
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the United States recovery from the recession is stronger than every other country on earth. The major difference between us and Europe is that Europe exercised austerity, while the American government exercised stimulus
The Australian government also spent a huge amount of money, to stimulate the economy and to create jobs during the recession.

I don't have the numbers, but I believe Australia came out of the recession better than the US.
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Old 07-08-2013, 11:12 AM   #41
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Originally Posted by AussieChiefsFan View Post
The Australian government also spent a huge amount of money, to stimulate the economy and to create jobs during the recession.

I don't have the numbers, but I believe Australia came out of the recession better than the US.
I don't believe they did to the same degree as the United States. Plus we pay for other countries defense and have to pay to be the world's cop.
Your growth is mainly a result of the sharp increase in demand for Australian commodities from China.
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Old 07-08-2013, 11:18 AM   #42
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What are Australia's interest rates? I read that Australia has relatively high interest rates compared to most other advanced economies. Or they had high short-term interest rates.
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Old 07-08-2013, 01:12 PM   #43
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Probably. He was horrible.
Exactly. That's why it's so great Obama is presiding over the bad economy. It's so important that he's at the helm while the lower class gets wiped out, partic the blacks & hispanics. If Bush was in office - holy hell would've already broken out.

Obama gets to play the chump. And I for one am thankful he's doing it.
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Old 07-09-2013, 09:56 AM   #44
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Originally Posted by Direckshun View Post
It's pretty clear that in virtually every economic indicator, the United States recovery from the recession is stronger than every other country on earth. The major difference between us and Europe is that Europe exercised austerity, while the American government exercised stimulus.

Other powerhouse countries, like Brazil and (to a much greater extent) Russia have suffered from inept leadership, and India and China are dealing with extremely difficult problems threatening to hold up or, in China's cast, partially collapse their economies.

This piece is a criticism of the Federal Reserve threatening to pare back its support for the American (and thus) global economy. But it greatly rebuts the idea that America's standing has even remotely diminished as the leading economic powerhouse on the planet. All that's happened is that standing has become more resolute, with a pretty effective recovery still on the horizon.

http://drezner.foreignpolicy.com/pos...ic_hegemon_now

Who's your economic hegemon now?
Posted By Daniel W. Drezner
Friday, June 21, 2013 - 1:29 PM

Hey, remember how, after the 2008 financial crisis, a lot of Really Smart People said that the United States had reached the end of influence or a post-American world? How the accumulated ills of the U.S. economy were leading to a decline in American hegemony, or even the end of power itself? How the BRICS were the new new thing?

I bring this up because, five years after the financial crisis rally heated up, we confront this New York Times front-pager by Nathaniel Popper:



Surely, however, that rising economic superpower called "China" is ready to save the day, right? Wait, what's this?



Read the whole thing - as well as this Bloomberg story -- to understand why China is acting the way it is.

[But what about the rest of the BRIC economies?!--ed. Let's see, Brazil is a bit preoccupied at the moment, Russia is starved of capital, and India has its own problems. Oh, OK--ed.]

So who's your hegemon now, huh?

If Americans reading this are beginning to feel jingoistic, however, let me point out that if you think this is all good news, you're nuts. From an economic perspective, it's much better to see all these economies growing robustly. Since they're not, Ben Bernanke's decision to start talking about tapering off quantitative easing seems rather blinkered. This is for a few simple reasons:

1) As noted above, all of the other potential growth engines in the global economy are either contracting or screeching to a halt;

2) The fiscal headwind of U.S. fiscal policy hasn't been devastating, but it is likely a net drag on the economy. Oh, and inflation? That's nowhere to be seen. The U.S. economy is doing well in comparison to the other developed nations, but it's still not doing all that well. Now is not the time to engage in restrictive monetary policy (or terribly restrictive fiscal policy either).

3) This week Bernanke has been spelling out what the Fed will be doing in 2014 and beyond. Which would be peachy if Bernanke was going to be chairing the Fed then -- except that every indication is that he won't be. So why his word should carry such impact on post-2013 actions is a bit mystifying.

So the good news is that reports of declining U.S. influence have been greatly exaggerated. The bad news is that it's not obvious to me that the U.S. economic leadership is exercising that power responsibly.

Am I missing anything?
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Old 07-09-2013, 11:42 AM   #45
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Originally Posted by BucEyedPea View Post
What are Australia's interest rates? I read that Australia has relatively high interest rates compared to most other advanced economies. Or they had high short-term interest rates.
Australia's rate is about 3%. Much higher than the US's, but not horrendously, by international standards.
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