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Old 07-05-2013, 09:00 AM  
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July 2013's labor report released

Obamacare Strikes: Part-Time Jobs Surge To All Time High; Full-Time Jobs Plunge By 240,000
Submitted by Tyler Durden
on 07/05/2013 09:13 -0400




As a reminder: jobs have quantity and quality components. The quantity component was good enough to convince the 10 Year the taper is imminent (if not stocks, which continue to trade dislocated from any and all fundamentals). But how about the quality? In a word: not good. In June, the household survey reported that part-time jobs soared by 360,000 to 28,059,000 - an all time record high. Full time jobs? Down 240,000. And looking back at the entire year, so far in 2013, just 130K Full-Time Jobs have been added, offset by a whopping 557K Part-Time jobs. And there is your jobs "quality".


http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-0...-plunge-240000
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Old 07-05-2013, 09:21 AM   #2
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Old 07-05-2013, 09:26 AM   #3
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Old 07-05-2013, 09:29 AM   #4
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No, no. We're thriving. But we just need one more trillion dollar stimulus to really get us going.

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Old 07-05-2013, 09:53 AM   #5
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Originally Posted by blaise View Post
No, no. We're thriving. But we just need one more trillion dollar stimulus to really get us going.

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"Yes the Obama economy is struggling. But the real question we must ask is: why has the GOP not offered any solutions to help improve his policies?"

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Old 07-05-2013, 12:20 PM   #6
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As always in a recovery from something as devastating as 2008-09, there's good news to be celebrated, and bad news to be concerned about...

The good news:
  • Tons of more people are looking for work.
  • Worker pay has definitely improved.
  • Interest rates are picking up for mortgages and business loans, suggesting that those markets are recovering.
  • Retail added over 37,000, and construction added over 13,000. These are indicative of the economy's current state and future state, respectively.
  • The revisions of April and May's numbers are tremendously positive.
  • Employment-to-population ratio: up.
Bad news:
  • Greater technology is still hurting manufacturing.
  • Government is still shedding employees.
  • The Fed has signaled it might stop its bond purchases, which has driven bonds up.
  • U-6 has expanded, as alluded to in the OP, as part-time employees looking for full-time opportunities has risen sharply.
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Old 07-05-2013, 12:23 PM   #7
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Good piece by Salmon on it.

http://blogs.reuters.com/felix-salmo...oyment-policy/

When the government outsources employment policy
By Felix Salmon
July 5, 2013

America is creating jobs — but they’re not well-paid jobs, and they don’t seem to be going to the previously unemployed.

Today’s headline figure is certainly impressive: 195,000 new jobs were created in June, in the wake of a super-strong 207,000 new jobs in May. But the headline unemployment rate went nowhere, stuck at 7.6%, while the broadest measure of underemployment, the U6 unemployment rate, saw a worrying and substantial rise, to 14.3% from 13.8%.

Good jobs, like those in government, continue to get cut, while most of the jobs growth came in the most low-wage sectors, like hospitality. And while the data on wages was pretty healthy, remember that wage data applies overwhelmingly to people who have been employed for some time, rather than to people newly entering the workforce. Basically, if you’re employed, you’re doing OK, but if you’re underemployed, the options available to you — the new jobs being created — are pretty underwhelming. Partly as a result, the number of discouraged workers — people who have given up looking for work because they can find nothing available — has gone up, sharply, to more than 1 million.

This report is going to have no visible effect on Fed policy. The Fed has no employment-growth target: the thing it cares about, on the jobs front, is unemployment. So when it comes to measures like tapering and rate hikes, the survey which matters most is the household survey — the employment status of American households — rather than the establishment survey, which measures the size of total US payrolls. Theoretically, the two surveys are two different ways of measuring the same thing, but in practice we’re seeing in the jobs report exactly the same thing that we’ve been seeing for most of the recovery: businesses reporting healthy numbers, with workers in general, and people looking for work in particular, seeing little benefit as a result.

The markets are jittery, on this illiquid holiday weekend, with the yield on the 10-year bond soaring more than 20bp to almost 2.7%. By the standards of recent history, that’s extremely high — but it’s worth remembering that on an absolute level, it’s still very low. The combination of aggressive monetary policy and a very weak economy managed to bring rates down to unsustainably low levels, and the bounce back to something a bit more normal was always more likely than not to be chaotic and weirdly timed.

But that said, the rise in long-term rates will surely only serve to delay, at the margin, any tapering by the Fed. Monetary conditions are already significantly tighter now than they were a month ago; the last thing the Fed needs to do, with unemployment still well above target at 7.6%, is try to make them tighter still by tapering. The doves on the FOMC will of course want to keep the current accommodative stance unchanged, while the hawks will for the time being be placated with the idea that the bond market is doing their job for them.

Ultimately, however, neither Fed policy nor long-term interest rates are actually going to have much effect on the unemployment rate. US corporations are loaded up with cash; they don’t need to borrow money to invest in new jobs, and insofar as they do need to borrow money, most of them have already done so, locking in the low rates we saw a few months ago. As a result, the path that the borrowing rate takes from here on in is not going to determine the velocity with which we reach the key Fed levels of 7% and 6.5% unemployment. (The first is the point at which the Fed starts thinking about tapering; the second is the point at which the Fed starts thinking about raising the Fed funds rate.)

So what’s left? Fiscal policy could help, in terms of reducing unemployment, but it won’t: the sequester is still in effect, and Congress has zero willingness to use government money to create jobs.

Which means that job growth, from here on in, is entirely going to be a function of the private sector. When, and how, will America’s cash-rich and profitable corporations start using the money they’re making to hire Americans who are currently unemployed? The healthy headline figures in the establishment survey indicate that we’re moving in the right direction, albeit not fast enough. And the stock market will help, too: companies will need to start growing in order to justify their current share prices. With any luck, corporate growth will mean employment growth.

As for the government, the base-case scenario is essentially neglect. The legislature will do nothing to improve things, while the Fed will do nothing to hinder the recovery. The ball is in America’s court.
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Old 07-05-2013, 01:11 PM   #8
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I scanned your article. I dind't see immigration mentioned even once.
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Old 07-06-2013, 06:36 AM   #9
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Direckshun View Post
As always in a recovery from something as devastating as 2008-09, there's good news to be celebrated, and bad news to be concerned about...

The good news:
  • Tons of more people are looking for work.
More people looking for work is good news? What a strange world you live in.
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Old 07-06-2013, 07:14 AM   #10
Loneiguana Loneiguana is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Direckshun View Post
Good piece by Salmon on it.

http://blogs.reuters.com/felix-salmo...oyment-policy/

When the government outsources employment policy
.
Yup, government jobs are not helping the employment picture unfortunately.

Quote:
Federal government jobs are declining at an increasing pace, the latest evidence that across-the-board spending cuts are a drag on the labor market.


National government jobs have now shrunk for eight consecutive months. The loss after the sequester was put in place in March is the largest three-month decline since temporary Census worker departed in 2010.

In May, the federal payroll shrank by 14,000, including 9,400 non-postal workers. The U.S. Postal Service is cutting back, but it isn’t subject to the sequester. The non-postal work force has declined by average of 8,200 per month since March, compared with an average monthly decrease of about 2,000 last year.

The decline is likely to continue as more government workers leave their jobs and aren’t replaced.

“The ripple effect of the sequester is going to extend throughout the summer,” said Jim Baird, chief investment officer at Plante Moran Financial. “It’s clear that any near-term improvement in the labor market sits squarely on the shoulders of the private sector.”

However, there was one bright spot for the public payrolls.

Municipalities added 13,000 workers in May, the fourth gain in five months. Faced with declining property tax rolls in the wake of the housing crisis, local governments cut staff the past four years, but so far in 2013 have added 19,000 workers.


http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2013/...liminate-jobs/
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Old 07-06-2013, 08:07 AM   #11
Direckshun Direckshun is offline
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Originally Posted by jjjayb View Post
More people looking for work is good news? What a strange world you live in.
Ha! You misunderstand.

You have more people who are looking for work rather than dropping out of the work force.

The economy for the past six months has really started chipping into those people who dropped out of the work force the past three years.

It's the single reason the unemployment rate hasn't really dropped, even though we've added over a million jobs in the past half year.
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Old 07-06-2013, 08:48 AM   #12
RedNeckRaider RedNeckRaider is offline
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Originally Posted by Direckshun View Post
Ha! You misunderstand.

You have more people who are looking for work rather than dropping out of the work force.

The economy for the past six months has really started chipping into those people who dropped out of the work force the past three years.

It's the single reason the unemployment rate hasn't really dropped, even though we've added over a million jobs in the past half year.
You are pathetic~
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Old 07-06-2013, 09:24 AM   #13
Loneiguana Loneiguana is offline
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You are pathetic~
A rising unemployment rate means two things:

Either people are losing jobs (most common)

or

People who were unemployed and not looking for work (and therefore not counted in the regular employment measurement) start to look for work and because they are looking, get measured into the unemployment statistic.

Unemployment rising because of people losing jobs equals bad. Unemployment rising because people, who were previously not looking, start to try to enter the labor force, means those people feel jobs are coming back. This is a good sign, though not world changing news.
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Old 07-06-2013, 10:10 AM   #14
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People lose jobs = good for Obama

People gain jobs = good for Obama

Unemployment rate goes up = good for Obama

Unemployment rate goes down = good for Obama
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Old 07-06-2013, 10:13 AM   #15
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