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Old 09-20-2013, 01:55 PM  
DaFace DaFace is offline
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A Broncos blogger's take on the Chiefs

http://www.itsalloverfatman.com/bron...as-city-chiefs

Beware the Kansas City Chiefs
Ted Bartlett Sep 20, 2013 3:30 PM

Happy Friday, friends. I still havenít had the four hours or so necessary to watch the All-22 of the Broncos-Giants game, and then write an article on it. Iím planning to do that tomorrow, so check the site on a Saturday. (I know you all have the capability.) I actually planned to watch the film last night, but I got caught up watching the Chiefs-Eagles game instead.

Youíre not going to like this, but I thought it was time that we all came to the realization that the Chiefs are legitimate. Briefly, today, Iíll share some thoughts on this most regrettable of topics.

For Kansas City, it all starts with their ability to play defense, specifically man-to-man coverage on defense. They have two above-average man corners in Brandon Flowers and Sean Smith, and they also have safety Eric Berry, whoís proving to be very capable at covering TEs man-to-man.

When you can play man coverage (like the Broncos can, as well), you get more options tactically than youíd have if your guys could only hold up in zone. If you can play 5-on-5, with one high safety, youíre left with a free guy, to either use as an extra rusher, or as a robber type of player in coverage.

Whatís maybe even more impressive about the Chiefs is that theyíre getting dominant play off both edges (Justin Houston and Tamba Hali) and on the nose, with the vastly improved Dontari Poe. This Chiefs team can really generate some pressure on the QB, and that dovetails nicely with being able to lock down good receivers outside.

I saw some comments in the Lard today saying that the Chiefs looked like an average team. I donít agree with that. As I watched them, I thought they looked a good deal like the 2011 49ers, and that team probably should have been in the Super Bowl.

Alex Smith has been doing an excellent job of managing the game, and the Chiefs have zero turnovers through three games. At this point, nobody can say that Smith is a fluke when it comes to protecting the football. In 2011, his interception rate was 1.1%, which led the NFL. In 2012, it was 2.3%, which tied with Matt Ryan for tenth. This year, obviously, itís zero. He is good at not throwing the ball to the other team.

Smith isnít really a big play guy, but with the defense Kansas City has, he doesnít have to be. He can matriculate the ball down the field, and do well enough by getting the ball to the open guy short. Heís also added 115 rushing yards in three games, which is a good amount for a QB.

Thereís a way to win in the NFL, by playing good defense (particularly against the pass), and by winning the turnover battle. Thatís what the 49ers did the last couple years, and thatís what this yearís Chiefs team is doing.

I said in an email to the other IAOFM guys yesterday that the Chiefs were probably destined to regress to the mean on turnovers, but the more I think about it, the less I think they will. Smith is huge in that regard, as mentioned, but itís notable that the team has only even fumbled the ball once in three games. (That was credited to Smith.)

Recovering fumbles is random, and highly dependent on luck, but not fumbling the ball isnít random. Itís a skill, and a discipline, and a coaching priority. So far, it looks like this is another skill that the Chiefs have going for them.


I know what some of you are thinking - they haven't played anybody yet! How do you know? Is it fully clear yet who is a good team and who's a bad team? I'll grant you that Jacksonville is in rough shape this year. Dallas, though, has the talent to compete with anybody in the NFL. The fact that KC's corners mostly won against Dallas's WRs is compelling evidence of the quality of the Chiefs defense. As for Philadelphia, they have pretty good offensive talent too, and their scheme makes that talent a step better. (Admittedly, their defense isn't good.)

I donít necessarily think that the Chiefs are ready to win a Super Bowl this year, but I do think theyíll give anybody they play a hard time on any given Sunday. To beat their defense, you have to run the ball well, and beat up on their nickel CB with good play from the slot. Philly got them for 260 yards rushing, and 9.3 yards per carry, and it's clear that the Chiefs can still be run on.

To beat their offense, itís helpful to bottle up the running game, and to keep Smith in long yardage situations. If you let him get to 3rd-and-4 very often, heís going to beat you. Over the long run of a game, Smith makes up for not being great at drilling the 20-yard deep out by almost always finding the right receiver on 3rd-and-4, and almost always putting the short throw right where it needs to be.

I would say that the Chiefs are probably the second-most impressive team Iíve seen in the AFC so far this season. Itís a credit to Andy Reid, and the smart moves they made, like keeping LT Branden Albert, signing Sean Smith and DE Mike DeVito, trading for Alex Smith, and picking up Donnie Avery (who has skills) off the scrap heap. I think they may have erred in taking RT Eric Fisher first overall (I thought the best players in the class were DT Star Lotulelei and OLB Jarvis Jones), but Fisher is still likely going to be a good player.

Itís early, but we should watch out for the Chiefs. If they can beat Houston at home in Week 7, thereís a pretty good chance we could see 8-0 Kansas City visiting Denver on November 17th (coming off a bye) to play a 9-0 Broncos team. How exciting would that be?
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Old 09-20-2013, 11:24 PM   #91
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I'm not talking about the entire roster. I'm just saying this new coaching staff has the talent that was already here (on defense) kicking ass.
I've been complaining about the scheme since Pioli was hired.

But it's also clear that Jordan, DeVito, Abdullah, Smith and Demps have been major contributors.

Parker hasn't sucked, either.
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Old 09-20-2013, 11:35 PM   #92
TomBarndtsTwin TomBarndtsTwin is offline
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That is not a very good post. The Broncos could have the highest scoring offense in NFL history, we are not easy to stop. We have far too much talent.

Oh, shut the **** up!

Yes, you have Peyton Manning and one of the better WR cores in football, but you have no consistent semblance of a running game. It will be hit and miss, week to week.

These Broncos are not the 99 Rams, the mid 90's Cowboys or the late 80's Niners.

Sorry to be the bearer of bad news.
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Old 09-20-2013, 11:40 PM   #93
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Originally Posted by TomBarndtsTwin View Post
Oh, shut the **** up!

Yes, you have Peyton Manning and one of the better WR cores in football, but you have no consistent semblance of a running game. It will be hit and miss, week to week.

These Broncos are not the 99 Rams, the mid 90's Cowboys or the late 80's Niners.

Sorry to be the bearer of bad news.
I see your point but 90 points in 2 games is impressive.
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Old 09-20-2013, 11:47 PM   #94
TomBarndtsTwin TomBarndtsTwin is offline
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I see your point but 90 points in 2 games is impressive.
Not saying your offense hasn't been impressive, I just don't think it has the ingredients to be 'historic', as your fellow Bronco homer seems to think, w/o a consistent running game.

Most of us all here understand Denver is still the team to beat. The gap may just not be quite as wide as we all originally thought.
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Old 09-20-2013, 11:53 PM   #95
vailpass vailpass is offline
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Originally Posted by TomBarndtsTwin View Post
Not saying your offense hasn't been impressive, I just don't think it has the ingredients to be 'historic', as your fellow Bronco homer seems to think, w/o a consistent running game.

Most of us all here understand Denver is still the team to beat. The gap may just not be quite as wide as we all originally thought.
Agreed. You have the makings of a monster D.
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Old 09-21-2013, 12:18 AM   #96
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Originally Posted by AustinChief View Post
A buddy (who is not at all a Chiefs fan) texted me this exact same thing during the game.

The one part of this blog I disagree on is the "Chiefs can be run on" bit. Sure VICK can run on us, but that's really it. I think we'll continue to dominate on rush D when playing teams that don't have a running QB.
Yeppers. Peyton "Fivehead" Manning isn't going to run for 99 yards on anyone.
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Old 09-21-2013, 01:18 AM   #97
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The Jags also had more success running against the Chiefs than they did in their other game against the Raiders.
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Old 09-21-2013, 01:20 AM   #98
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Last time we played them we won 38-3 and Brock played the last few series. I wouldn't say it's out of the question, even if KC's defense is improved
Oh cool. Gonna bring that up? Unless Romeo, and Pioli, drug Reid, and Dorsey, and take control, that's about as relevant as me saying I could play qb better than any of the qbs for the chiefs last year.
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I see your point but 90 points in 2 games is impressive.
Of course it is. One problem. Clady is gone. Second problem. The Chiefs aren't going to commit the fatal flaw that both the Giants, and Ravens tried.

They tried to play scoreboard with the Broncos. The Chiefs, wont try to play score board, they will play keep away. Broncos cant score if they don't have the ball.....

Very few teams, are going to go toe to toe with the Broncos if that is the plan.
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Old 09-21-2013, 02:15 AM   #99
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The Jags also had more success running against the Chiefs than they did in their other game against the Raiders.
That could be the difference between MJD carrying it 15 times against us and 10 times against them. His ypc was slightly higher in our game (3.0 versus 2.7) but there's no telling what he'd have done with 5 more opportunities, had he not been injured. Maybe nothing. Hard to tell either way.

In any event, you have to try really hard to find fault with a rushing defense that allows 71 yards on 23 carries.
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Old 09-21-2013, 02:23 AM   #100
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Great write-up until the end. Zero chance of us going 8-0.
yeah.
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Old 09-21-2013, 05:56 AM   #101
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I think our D could stand to be more stout against the run, and we'll see how the aggressiveness holds up, it has a way of biting teams in the ass some. I think the way to go after our defense is establish the run and then go after the secondary with play action, maybe screens although I think our defense would pick that up. That or bide your time and burn us deep like the Cowboys.

It will be interesting to see what gameplans both teams go with. Would it be crazy to put Flowers man up on Welker and have him try and shut him down like he did DeSean Jackson? I think the key for the Chiefs will be to jam the hell out of the Broncos WRs and TEs and try to take away their quick strike passing game.
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Old 09-21-2013, 06:25 AM   #102
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Good read
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Old 09-21-2013, 06:48 AM   #103
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The Jags also had more success running against the Chiefs than they did in their other game against the Raiders.
Stick to the arcade, trolling isn't your thing.
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Old 09-21-2013, 06:52 AM   #104
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Our defense is only going to get better. Poe has the potential to be the best DT in the nfl. Berry will start making more and more plays. Houston is going to start being chipped more than he already is. They wont be able to chip Tamba as much as they are currently. The talent of this defense has a very high ceiling.
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Old 09-21-2013, 07:18 AM   #105
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Originally Posted by DaneMcCloud View Post
I've been complaining about the scheme since Pioli was hired.

But it's also clear that Jordan, DeVito, Abdullah, Smith and Demps have been major contributors.

Parker hasn't sucked, either.
Parker got the strip fumble on Romo. Big play in that game. Took a possession from cowboys
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Alex Smith is really talented. BIG arm, very mobile. The injury is really just bad luck.
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