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Old 09-24-2013, 01:53 AM  
suzzer99 suzzer99 is offline
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Who has(d) better odds of making the playoffs?

The Chiefs heading in to week 17 of 2006 or the Royals on 9/24/13? Note: for the purposes of this thread a tie-breaker game for the WC is considered making the playoffs.
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Old 09-24-2013, 01:56 AM   #2
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Bananas.
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Old 09-24-2013, 01:57 AM   #3
BWillie BWillie is offline
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The Chiefs. And its not even close. Royals prob have less than 4% chance. Chiefs probably 50/50
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Old 09-24-2013, 01:57 AM   #4
BWillie BWillie is offline
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Bananas.
Monkeys.
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Old 09-24-2013, 02:11 AM   #5
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BWillie View Post
The Chiefs. And its not even close. Royals prob have less than 4% chance. Chiefs probably 50/50
Chiefs week 17 2006 was under 2%. I don't remember the exact number, but like 6 things needed to happen.

I would calculate the Royals if I gave a shit.
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Old 09-24-2013, 02:14 AM   #6
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Quote:
Originally Posted by cdcox View Post
Chiefs week 17 2006 was under 2%. I don't remember the exact number, but like 6 things needed to happen.

I would calculate the Royals if I gave a shit.
I decided I gave 1/4 of a shit and googled this:

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/odds/

1.5%, so they are about the same.
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Old 09-24-2013, 02:18 AM   #7
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Quote:
Originally Posted by cdcox View Post
I decided I gave 1/4 of a shit and googled this:

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/odds/

1.5%, so they are about the same.
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Old 09-24-2013, 03:41 AM   #8
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What a crazy week that was. Funny part is the final QB that made it a reality was Alex Smith lol
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Old 09-24-2013, 08:38 AM   #9
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Even when using the most optimistic assumptions that are still reasonable (eg ESPN's odds), the Royals only have roughly a 3.5% chance.
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Old 09-24-2013, 08:42 AM   #10
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At first glance, the odds seem fairly equal.
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Old 09-24-2013, 08:44 AM   #11
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Old 09-24-2013, 10:04 AM   #12
suzzer99 suzzer99 is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by cdcox View Post
I decided I gave 1/4 of a shit and googled this:

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/odds/

1.5%, so they are about the same.
Thank you! This is the kind of science CP was designed for.
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Old 09-24-2013, 10:05 AM   #13
suzzer99 suzzer99 is offline
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Originally Posted by BryanBusby View Post
What a crazy week that was. Funny part is the final QB that made it a reality was Alex Smith lol
And Cutlahhh crapping the bed and losing the last 3 weeks of the season. So delicious.
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Old 09-24-2013, 10:06 AM   #14
suzzer99 suzzer99 is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by cdcox View Post
I decided I gave 1/4 of a shit and googled this:

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/odds/

1.5%, so they are about the same.
The cool thing about these odds is all we need is one night where we win and Cleveland and Tampa lose and they go way up.
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Old 09-24-2013, 10:08 AM   #15
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The cool thing about these odds is all we need is one night where we win and Cleveland and Tampa lose and they go way up.
Yep, we're late enough in the season where it can swing pretty wildly. A good day and it can go up a few points. A bad day, and it'll crater to near-zero.
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