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Old 09-26-2013, 07:07 AM  
the Talking Can the Talking Can is offline
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Chiefs' offense: "one of the worst in the league, by nearly every measure"

http://www.arrowheadpride.com/2013/9...chiefs-offense

some numbers to chew on from arrowhead pride

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The Chiefs are actually 12th in the league in PPG, at 23.7. But if you take away the 14 points the defense is directly responsible for, that number drops to 19 PPG, which would be tied for 23rd - with the Raiders. The Chiefs are relying on the defense to score points, which isn't good. Defensive scoring is random and shouldn't be part of the game plan. They didn't need Tamba Hali's pick-6 to beat the Jaguars, but they did need Eric Berry's against the Eagles.

They also are just not moving the ball; their 333 yds/gm is 21st in the league and their 4.9 yds/play ranks 25th. "Well Kyle," you may ask, " if the Chiefs offense is so bad, how are they undefeated this year?" That's an excellent question, thank you for asking. The answer is that the defense and special teams are much, much better than we thought.
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The problem the Chiefs are having is getting to the Red Zone in the first place. They're 30th in yards per drive, with only Tampa Bay and Jacksonville behind them, and Cleveland directly in front of them (not good company to be in). This is a really, really bad offense. But here's the real kicker: the Chiefs' offense has the best starting field position in the NFL this year, and still can't score.
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The Chiefs average 17 yards per drive better field position than their opponents (ok, ok, 16.95), the best mark in the NFL (2nd table). Only two other teams average more than 10 yards better starting field position than their opponents (New England and Chicago). The Chiefs' average starting line of scrimmage (LOS) is their own 36.97 yard line (best in the NFL), while their opponents average starting LOS is their own 20.02 yard line (also best in the NFL). What all of that means is the Chiefs's offense is handed consistently great starting field position and can't do anything with it, then they let the special teams pin opponents deep in their own territory. The defense bails out the offense by not letting opponents move the ball, giving the offense the ball back with great starting field position. Lather, rinse, repeat.
There's a nice breakdown of our defense against philly over there as well:
http://www.sbnation.com/nfl/2013/9/2...p-kelly-eagles

Quote:
I have to reiterate and emphasize just how much the Chiefs played man to man -- like a ton of it. And they have the secondary to handle it, unlike most teams in the NFL. Specifically, they matched up Sean Smith on Cooper a lot on the outside. If this had been a prize fight, Cooper's corner would have thrown in the towel somewhere around the middle of the second quarter. Smith owned him right up until the end of the game when he started cramping up. Cooper just couldn't shake him, especially on those aforementioned deep routes Kelly had him running all game.

Last edited by the Talking Can; 09-26-2013 at 07:49 AM..
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Old 09-26-2013, 04:15 PM   #811
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Originally Posted by Pam Oliver's Forehead View Post
The Rich Gannon comparisons need to stop.

His first season in Oakland they were 8th in points and 5th in yards. We aren't close to that.

They were also sixth in net yards gained per pass attempt. Currently we're 27th.

Whee, ****ers.
Sun 9/12
@ GB
L 24-28 16 31 227 51.6 7.32 43 0 1 62.2 1 6 6.0 6 0
Sun 9/19
@ MIN
W 22-17 21 33 248 63.6 7.52 35 1 0 96.5 5 48 9.6 20 1
Sun 9/26
vs CHI
W 24-17 26 35 295 74.3 8.43 20 2 0 118.2

I don't see there being a large discrepancy in Alex and Rich's stats through their first 3 games, sans Rich's win vs. Chicago.
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Originally Posted by Mavericks Ace View Post
I have completely given up on Alex Smith as a qb. Its painful to watch. Like, worse than watching Colt McCoy.
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Old 09-26-2013, 04:16 PM   #812
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Originally Posted by DJ's left nut View Post
...

Smith's not going to make those plays while running until he feels 100% comfortable in the offense. ...

He's not gonna hammer the accelerator if he can't see the apex and the exit to the corner. It's just not who he is.

But his history does suggest that he'll make those plays, just like Gannon, when he feels like he knows the offense. He's a poor-man's Manning; he doesn't want to 'feel' the offense, he wants to run it according to the script. He's the Anti-Favre.
Manning would be in that swing after one game because he would study the system until he knew it inside and out. If you're making that excuse for Smith, then I have to question his preparation.
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Old 09-26-2013, 04:18 PM   #813
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Originally Posted by chiefzilla1501 View Post
That is no guarantee that you're going to win deep in the playoffs. Seattle, Baltimore, Houston, the Giants, the Alex Smith niners, and now KC and Tennessee... these are teams that are doing really well playing more of an efficient game. The Steelers (pre-Arians) did as well.

So much attention is paid to this electric passing game. But the fact is that efficient teams have been just as successful in the playoffs of late as explosive offenses. I brought up before that apart from one Super Bowl run, both Aaron Rodgers and Drew Brees have a really lousy playoff win-loss record.
Yeah, that tends to happen when you have to score 40 to win.

Christ, the Saints gave up 30+ points to an Alex Smith offense.
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Old 09-26-2013, 04:19 PM   #814
OnTheWarpath58 OnTheWarpath58 is offline
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Originally Posted by DeezNutz View Post
We're patiently waiting to develop, in a sense, our 29-year-old QB.

I love change in KC.

This year is going to be fun because at least we'll see some wins and a playoff loss. No bullshit. It beats 2-14, and I don't think this team will ever bottom out again under Reid's watch because he's too damn good.

But man I'm tired of seeing middling shit at QB. The first 3 1/2 quarters in Philly were flat painful. One great throw changed the entire point of discussion for the night.

But at least we had that moment, so we cannot discredit it.
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Old 09-26-2013, 04:25 PM   #815
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Quote:
Originally Posted by the Talking Can View Post
http://www.arrowheadpride.com/2013/9...chiefs-offense

some numbers to chew on from arrowhead pride







There's a nice breakdown of our defense against philly over there as well:
http://www.sbnation.com/nfl/2013/9/2...p-kelly-eagles


Wonder how many people read the commentary after the article...


Burden of Persuasion


The writer of the post has the burden of persuasion, as s/he does for any argument. Even factually accurate statistics can be misleading when (a) a small sample size is used, (b) end-points are carefully selected, or © they are taken out of context. But when such white-lie dishonesty still doesnít make the point the writer wants to make, to resort to subtracting points from the Chiefsí offense while not subtracting it from any other teamís numbers, and then comparing the modified Chiefs to the unmodified others, thatís a dishonesty of the bald-faced variety.

It was the posterís lie, not mine. Catching the lie and holding the poster accountable for telling it advances the discussion enough to be useful; the burden isnít on me (or any of the other several readers who caught the lie) to also go back through the numbers to tell the actual truth. To require one of us to do so would be to require us to accept the posterís premise, which I donít. When the defense scores points, the offense doesnít have to, and the coaches game plan (more conservatively) accordingly. So rather than comparing teams on a dishonest measure of a relatively unimportant stat, Iím more more interested in comparing teams based on advanced stats like ToP/dr. ToP/dr is basically a measure of how successful the Chiefsí offense was in each of the game contexts it found itself in. And in that stat, they are in the top half, and nearly the top third. This is also why Football Outsiders advanced stats rank the Chiefsí offense in the top half of the league.

by johnbenjaminmoore on Sep 26, 2013 | 8:58 AM⬆up↩reply
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Old 09-26-2013, 04:27 PM   #816
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Quote:
Originally Posted by chiefzilla1501 View Post
That is no guarantee that you're going to win deep in the playoffs. Seattle, Baltimore, Houston, the Giants, the Alex Smith niners, and now KC and Tennessee... these are teams that are doing really well playing more of an efficient game. The Steelers (pre-Arians) did as well.

So much attention is paid to this electric passing game. But the fact is that efficient teams have been just as successful in the playoffs of late as explosive offenses. I brought up before that apart from one Super Bowl run, both Aaron Rodgers and Drew Brees have a really lousy playoff win-loss record.
Baltimore scored 31ppg in the playoffs last year... Flacco threw for 11 yards in 4 games with a 9ypa and 117 rating. Seattle lost last year despite throwing for 385 yards and scoring 28 points. Houston lost their playoff game 41-28 last year. The 2011 Giants scored 25.5pgg in the postseason, and Manning threw for over 1200 yards in 4 games. The 49ers last year gave up 31 points in two of their games and in 2011 had to beat the Saints 36-32 on Smith's 300 yards/3TDs (and Brees threw for 460 that game, but didn't have 140 yards rushing to back it up like the 49ers did).

There are almost no guarantees in anything, so it's pointless to even say... the overwhelming trend is that you need elite QB play to win deep in the playoffs, which can only be overcome by elite play at several other positions, such an entire defense.
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Old 09-26-2013, 04:30 PM   #817
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Old 09-26-2013, 04:31 PM   #818
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This thread has just killed my entire afternoon.

**** you all.

Assholes.
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Old 09-26-2013, 04:31 PM   #819
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Originally Posted by Pam Oliver's Forehead View Post
The Rich Gannon comparisons need to stop.

His first season in Oakland they were 8th in points and 5th in yards. We aren't close to that.

They were also sixth in net yards gained per pass attempt. Currently we're 27th.

Whee, ****ers.
So good I just wanted to use it again somewhere. It doesn't really fit but whatever.



teehee
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Old 09-26-2013, 04:35 PM   #820
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Originally Posted by DeezNutz View Post
We're patiently waiting to develop, in a sense, our 29-year-old QB.

I love change in KC.

This year is going to be fun because at least we'll see some wins and a playoff loss. No bullshit. It beats 2-14, and I don't think this team will ever bottom out again under Reid's watch because he's too damn good.

But man I'm tired of seeing middling shit at QB. The first 3 1/2 quarters in Philly were flat painful. One great throw changed the entire point of discussion for the night.

But at least we had that moment, so we cannot discredit it.
Agreed, other than the one great throw part. It was a good throw, and damned timely, but one that good NFL QBs make 10 or 15 times a game. It wouldn't even make the highlight reel for a lot of QBs in the league.
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Old 09-26-2013, 04:39 PM   #821
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Originally Posted by BigChiefTablet View Post
Agreed, other than the one great throw part. It was a good throw, and damned timely, but one that good NFL QBs make 10 or 15 times a game. It wouldn't even make the highlight reel for a lot of QBs in the league.
I want my QB making a throw like that every drive to be perfectly honest.
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Old 09-26-2013, 04:44 PM   #822
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From a physical standpoint, there wasn't anything unbelievable about that throw.

However, considering that Smith had been shit all night, the field position was terrible, and all of the momentum was starting to turn against the Chiefs, that was a gutty ****ing moment.

Look, Smith is still remarkably mediocre; this isn't anything new. But that throw was high-quality.
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Old 09-26-2013, 04:47 PM   #823
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Originally Posted by DeezNutz View Post
From a physical standpoint, there wasn't anything unbelievable about that throw.

However, considering that Smith had been shit all night, the field position was terrible, and all of the momentum was starting to turn against the Chiefs, that was a gutty ****ing moment.

Look, Smith is still remarkably mediocre; this isn't anything new. But that throw was high-quality.
Agreed.
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Old 09-26-2013, 05:00 PM   #824
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The only stat that matters right now is 3-0. The RT & TE positions need to pick it up. If that happens, Smith & the offense will improve the other stats. Would not be surpised to see Fisher moved to Guard if he doesn't pick it up this next game or two. Not necessarily my recommendation, but I can see it happening.
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Old 09-26-2013, 05:00 PM   #825
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Back to earth? Dude, this defense is only going to improve.
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