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Old 09-26-2013, 02:28 PM  
Taco John Taco John is offline
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Boehner says he will not pass a clean bill from Reid

House Speaker John Boehner (R-Ohio) insisted Thursday that the government would not shut down, but he also flatly refused to pass a "clean" spending bill to keep Uncle Sam in business next week when the bank account runs dry.

"I do not see that happening," Boehner told reporters on Capitol Hill after meeting with Republican legislators.

The House passed a measure last week to fund the government after Sept. 30 only if Democrats agree to strip spending from Obamacare. The Senate is in the process of removing the health care defunding and plans to send a simple spending bill back to the House by this weekend. That bill would keep the government running until Nov. 15.

Boehner declared, "I don't expect" the government to close. But he did not explain how he and his Republican caucus could amend the Senate bill, debate it, vote on it and send it back to the Senate for more action there before Oct. 1.

"There will be options available to us," Boehner said. "There's not going to be any speculation about what we're going to do or not do until the Senate passes their bill."

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/0...n_3996800.html
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Old 09-27-2013, 02:32 PM   #61
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Originally Posted by FD View Post
There is an election in Nov 2014, pushing the start of Obamacare to Oct 2014 only puts the Dems in a worse spot politically. Delaying the individual mandate would be even worse for them as it would have the extra effect of raising everyone's insurance premiums sustantially next year.

The only "leverage" the GOP has is basically a gun they are pointing at their own head. Its not going to happen.
I think you seriously miscalculate the amount of leverage that the Republicans have here. It's more than you think.

If - and it's a considerable "if" - but if the House sends the Senate the bill back granting the funding but delaying the mandate, and Reid obstructs it, it will blow up in his face. IT would be one thing if President Blink had stood firm and not granted exemptions to his buddies in big business, but to grant business a year extension and not grant the same thing to the American people - You seriously think that's going to play out well politically for Obama/Reid/Democrats?

I'd like to see them do that, myself. If they want to shut down the government over a year delay that they're already granting to big business, that's up to them to explain.
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Old 09-27-2013, 02:39 PM   #62
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It's not that... it's that the mandate is a BITTER PILL for most people and delaying it will only push the issue off until AFTER the 2014 election. If the 2014 election happens right after people are being herded up and forced into exchanges... it will be political disaster for those who supported Obamacare.

The BEST political solution is to delay the mandate but nor for a YEAR, instead delay it 6 months. That would keep the pain of it fresh in the minds of the now pissed off public just as they are going to the polls.
How is the mandate a bitter pill for most people?

How many Ameircans already have health insurance?

The tax penalty for non-compliance is not expensive enough to be much of a disincentive for people that do not want to enroll in a health plan. There are going to be some Obama voters who might forego enrolling for a couple of years on the idea that they hope not to get sick or injured and they might pay less by not enrolling. But, the way the tax credits and subsidies are structured the income window where that would be a sound economic decision is not very big.

There really are not very many informed people that are going to go to the polls angry.

The only people that will go to the polls angry will be people who automatically believe in anything that the politicans they like say. Most of those folks will still be on the same employer provided insurance that they are already on and they are not swing voters anyway.
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Old 09-27-2013, 02:40 PM   #63
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Reid going to the brink: Just accept what we've done or I'll shut down the government.

This is great television right now on CSPAN.
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Old 09-27-2013, 02:47 PM   #64
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Originally Posted by Taco John View Post
I think you seriously miscalculate the amount of leverage that the Republicans have here. It's more than you think.

If - and it's a considerable "if" - but if the House sends the Senate the bill back granting the funding but delaying the mandate, and Reid obstructs it, it will blow up in his face. IT would be one thing if President Blink had stood firm and not granted exemptions to his buddies in big business, but to grant business a year extension and not grant the same thing to the American people - You seriously think that's going to play out well politically for Obama/Reid/Democrats?

I'd like to see them do that, myself. If they want to shut down the government over a year delay that they're already granting to big business, that's up to them to explain.
As a general principle I don't like to argue about what's going to happen when we can sit back and wait a short period to find out, so I'll just leave this discussion where it stands. We'll know who was right in a couple weeks at most.

I'll add one more point first, though. Reid wouldn't "obstruct" the bill in the scenario you imagine, he would put it on the floor, let the senate vote out the bit about Obamacare and approve the rest, sending it back to the House.
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Old 09-27-2013, 03:14 PM   #65
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Quote:
Originally Posted by FD View Post
There is an election in Nov 2014, pushing the start of Obamacare to Oct 2014 only puts the Dems in a worse spot politically. Delaying the individual mandate would be even worse for them as it would have the extra effect of raising everyone's insurance premiums sustantially next year.

The only "leverage" the GOP has is basically a gun they are pointing at their own head. Its not going to happen.
Not exactly true. The GOP has leverage on the medical device tax which is wildly unpopular among both parties. That is one thing I can see ACTUALLY getting pushed through. If I were them I'd put a mandate delay and a repeal of the tax out there expecting the delay to get shot down but keep the tax repeal as the "win."
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Old 09-27-2013, 03:16 PM   #66
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Taco John View Post
I think you seriously miscalculate the amount of leverage that the Republicans have here. It's more than you think.

If - and it's a considerable "if" - but if the House sends the Senate the bill back granting the funding but delaying the mandate, and Reid obstructs it, it will blow up in his face. IT would be one thing if President Blink had stood firm and not granted exemptions to his buddies in big business, but to grant business a year extension and not grant the same thing to the American people - You seriously think that's going to play out well politically for Obama/Reid/Democrats?

I'd like to see them do that, myself. If they want to shut down the government over a year delay that they're already granting to big business, that's up to them to explain.
There is not leverage when it comes to paying the nations bills.

You are talking about crashing the economy unless the minority in the government get what they want.

You seriously think the American people want the minority in government to hold hostage the American economy to get their way?
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Old 09-27-2013, 03:20 PM   #67
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Originally Posted by Loneiguana View Post
There is not leverage when it comes to paying the nations bills.

You are talking about crashing the economy unless the minority in the government get what they want.

You seriously think the American people want the minority in government to hold hostage the American economy to get their way?
You're talking about the next fight. I'm still focused on the one in front of us that's happening in real time.
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Old 09-27-2013, 03:21 PM   #68
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All Republicans Want in Exchange for Not Destroying the Economy Is Everything

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Republicans gave The National Review a draft of their starting point for negotiations with President Obama on the debt ceiling. It's jaw-dropping.

A quick reminder: the debt ceiling is the amount the government is allowed to borrow in order to pay bills accrued by Congress. Here is what the Republicans offer:

Suspend the debt limit until December 2014.

Delay Obamacare for a year.

Include tax reform measures along the lines of the Rep. Paul Ryan principles.

Agree to a slew of environmental issues: Approve the Keystone pipeline, kill EPA clean air and climate regulations, increase drilling.

Approve "regulatory reforms" including the REINS Act, which would basically gut the executive authority to make any regulations.

Implement spending cuts, including reforming retirement programs, the child tax credit ("to prevent fraud"), and, of course, ending Dodd-Frank.

Reforming health spending, including tort reform.

This is literally every policy priority of the Republican Party. This is hostage-taking, not politics. "We have been unable to pass our core priorities because voters keep electing Democrats to the Senate and the White House so we are asking that in order to prevent the economic catastrophe of a debt ceiling default, you sign off on doing everything we have ever wanted, is that OK with you, yes / no?

Some of these things, we will also note, are complete non-starters from a legal perspective. The EPA climate regulations, for example, are essentially mandated by the Supreme Court. George W. Bush dragged his feet on implementing regulations, but lawsuits from various environmental organizations helped force the issue. Adding that to a completely unrelated political measure is pure denial.
http://www.theatlanticwire.com/polit...rything/69895/

Republicans continue to operate in bad faith and waste taxpayer money by passing legislation non starters instead of actually doing their job and operating a functional government.
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Old 09-27-2013, 03:22 PM   #69
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Originally Posted by Taco John View Post
You're talking about the next fight. I'm still focused on the one in front of us that's happening in real time.
There is no leverage in either fight.

But continue to think taking hostages is a winning political strategy.
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Old 09-27-2013, 03:22 PM   #70
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Hey, it's time to collect our concession. The last time we got the sequester. This time I expect we'll get a delay in the individual mandate for a year. That buys enough time and sets up 2014 as a referendum on Obamacare. Ted Cruz's plan is all coming together.
There is no way in hell this happens.

Period.

The GOP has zero leverage. If the government shuts down and/or defaults, the GOP will get almost all of the blame and would be hurt in the midterms.
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Old 09-27-2013, 03:24 PM   #71
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Not exactly true. The GOP has leverage on the medical device tax which is wildly unpopular among both parties. That is one thing I can see ACTUALLY getting pushed through. If I were them I'd put a mandate delay and a repeal of the tax out there expecting the delay to get shot down but keep the tax repeal as the "win."
This is actually more realistic, I wouldn't really be surprised if they got this.
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Old 09-27-2013, 03:25 PM   #72
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Here is a thought for all those who have joined with the media to place the blame solely on the GOP should a govt shutdown (unlikely) occur.

Let's look at a situation...

Let's say that you have a college kid who gets money every month from his mom to pay his bills. He spends that money on food, gas, books and his hobby of collecting beenie babies. Now for whatever reason his mom is no longer in charge of the purse and his dad takes over. The dad doesn't agree with his son spending money on beenie babies so he says "I will give you the same money that you always got but you no longer are allowed to buy beenie babies." The son freaks out and says "NO! I refuse that deal!" The dad says, "sorry but I am now in charge of the finances and that's one expense I am not willing to pay for."

When the kid sticks to his guns and goes hungry... who is to blame? Is it 100% the fault of the dad?

The American public voted a new "parent" into office when they elected the current House. The House is the part of our govt that is SUPPOSED to be in charge of spending. Don't like what they chose to spend money on then elect new Reps. OR if you don't agree with our system of govt then change the Constitution so that Obama can just rule by executive fiat... oh wait...
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Old 09-27-2013, 03:25 PM   #73
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Old 09-27-2013, 03:25 PM   #74
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This is actually more realistic, I wouldn't really be surprised if they got this.
It's honestly the only thing I can see happening (of any substance) in the short term.
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Old 09-27-2013, 03:26 PM   #75
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How is the mandate a bitter pill for most people?

How many Ameircans already have health insurance?

The tax penalty for non-compliance is not expensive enough to be much of a disincentive for people that do not want to enroll in a health plan. There are going to be some Obama voters who might forego enrolling for a couple of years on the idea that they hope not to get sick or injured and they might pay less by not enrolling. But, the way the tax credits and subsidies are structured the income window where that would be a sound economic decision is not very big.

There really are not very many informed people that are going to go to the polls angry.

The only people that will go to the polls angry will be people who automatically believe in anything that the politicans they like say. Most of those folks will still be on the same employer provided insurance that they are already on and they are not swing voters anyway.
and most of the people impacted by the mandate are Democrats anyway. They are not going to become republicans over this.
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