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Old 10-08-2013, 11:41 AM  
Direckshun Direckshun is offline
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Prediction on the gov't shutdown & debt limit increase.

Congressional Democrats and President Obama will continue to refuse the government shutdown and debt limit increase as opportunities for political extortion.

Congressional Republicans will continue insist in some sort of concession before agreeing to fund the government or raise the debt limit.

To avert a default by the United States Treasury, President Obama will raise the debt limit himself, or do away with it altogether by executive order.

Justifiably seeing as this is unconstitutional, Republicans in the House will initiate impeachment proceedings, and impeach Obama in 2014.

The impeachment efforts will die in the Senate, but politically, the attempt to rejuvenate the base will help the GOP in midterm turnout.

There will be no debt limit deal. Perhaps ever again. The government shutdown will conclude when Democrats and Republicans agree to postpone or fully repeal the medical device tax in Obamacare in early November.
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Old 10-08-2013, 04:03 PM   #31
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Originally Posted by AustinChief View Post
Wow. You do know that it is IN THE CONSTITUTION that all funding originates in the House right?

What you want is a House that simply provides blank checks to the rest of govt. Well sorry, that isn't how it works.

The fact that you see this as a "stunt" is as telling about your ignorance as your accusation that I judge Obama based on the color of skin.
Funding bills passed by the House are not laws until they pass the Senate without amendment and are signed or not vetoed by the President.

The Senate can amend and pass a House originated and passed funding bill and that amended bill could be passed by the House and then go to the President for signature or no veto or veto.
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Old 10-08-2013, 04:04 PM   #32
Aries Walker Aries Walker is offline
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I agree with those that say that the Medical Device Tax will be the concession ultimately made by the Senate to the House. Both sides claim victory. As for the date, I say the budget is passed and the shutdown ends on the evening of the 19th, meaning we default on our loans for three days.

Mind you, I also picked that the Jacksonville game would go into OT.
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Old 10-08-2013, 04:13 PM   #33
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jettio View Post
Funding bills passed by the House are not laws until they pass the Senate without amendment and are signed or not vetoed by the President.

The Senate can amend and pass a House originated and passed funding bill and that amended bill could be passed by the House and then go to the President for signature or no veto or veto.
Well someone paid attention on Saturday mornings!



Too bad you didn't understand the implications of why the system was setup for the House to ORIGINATE all funding.

In this instance, the House (as the legitimate voice of the PEOPLE on the matter of funding) has decided that there needs to be some changes before they ORIGINATE new funding.

That's THEIR ****ING JOB. I know to YOU people who want Obama to rule by Executive Decree this may seem like a "stunt." But in fact it is exactly how our system WORKS.

If the executive branch wants to play hardball they are welcome to do so... assuming they have the revenue to work with. If instead they are coming hat in hand to the House for MORE MONEY they need to be willing to compromise.
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Old 10-08-2013, 05:09 PM   #34
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Originally Posted by Amnorix View Post
Yeah, but that part never really worked out the way the Founders kinda planned. Frankly, the House doesn't really have power of the purse in that they can't unilaterally do anything, just as the Senate can't. It's much more of a formality than any kind of real power.

The Founders did build in this system of checks-and-balances, of course, so if the current stalemate is an outgrowth of that, then one could said that that part of their system is working.



Agreed.
They can unilaterally withhold funding.
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Old 10-08-2013, 05:11 PM   #35
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Quote:
Originally Posted by patteeu View Post
They can unilaterally withhold funding.
This times 1000. People seem to ignore this aspect of things. It was a VERY important function that was laid out in this manner deliberately by the Founding Fathers.
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Old 10-08-2013, 06:18 PM   #36
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Originally Posted by AustinChief View Post
Well someone paid attention on Saturday mornings!



Too bad you didn't understand the implications of why the system was setup for the House to ORIGINATE all funding.

In this instance, the House (as the legitimate voice of the PEOPLE on the matter of funding) has decided that there needs to be some changes before they ORIGINATE new funding.

That's THEIR ****ING JOB. I know to YOU people who want Obama to rule by Executive Decree this may seem like a "stunt." But in fact it is exactly how our system WORKS.

If the executive branch wants to play hardball they are welcome to do so... assuming they have the revenue to work with. If instead they are coming hat in hand to the House for MORE MONEY they need to be willing to compromise.
There are plenty of people in this country and you betcha by golly that the Pee Tardy caucus is not to voice of most of the people.

John Boehner is on videotape saying that it would be irresponsible to play this particular tactic.

Nobody has ever pulled this stunt before and you might get excited as if you are watching a sporting event and you may come up with as many rationalizations as you want, but this whole thing is coming about because big money ideologues are threatening GOP lawmakers to get in line and do what they know to be stupid in order to avoid a primary challenge from the right by a wingtard who will get plenty of money to defeat them.

Voice of the people, sure. If those two brothers in Wichita are the people, you got that right.
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Old 10-08-2013, 07:03 PM   #37
Aries Walker Aries Walker is offline
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I was just thinking earlier today that I bet Dick Lugar, with his background in working across the aisle and his penchant for cooperation, would have been a great asset in this crisis. Too bad he was primaried by a Tea Party stooge who ended up saying something dumb about rape and getting manhandled by an Indiana Democrat.
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Old 10-08-2013, 07:11 PM   #38
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Originally Posted by AustinChief View Post
Wow. You do know that it is IN THE CONSTITUTION that all funding originates in the House right?
Yes, thats technical correct. But, in reality it doesn't work that way. The house can pass whatever it wants and start/pass whatever they want but without the Senate and the President it doesn't become law.

The house and the senate must work together to get laws passed. Thats what the founders wanted as one leg of the triangle of a balanced democracy.
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Old 10-08-2013, 07:19 PM   #39
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I don't think that there will be such a thing as eliminating the debt ceiling. The president can't just overrule congress like that, and this one is too weak to do something like that anyway. President Lead From Behind would need some form of political cover before he attempted something like that.

If it were me, I would give the president a clean debt ceiling bill, but hold my ground on the federal government shut down until at the very least we got a year extension on the individual mandate. And then I'd look forward to the next debt ceiling debate letting the president know what we're coming for next time.
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Old 10-08-2013, 07:28 PM   #40
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Originally Posted by Taco John View Post
I don't think that there will be such a thing as eliminating the debt ceiling. The president can't just overrule congress like that, and this one is too weak to do something like that anyway. President Lead From Behind would need some form of political cover before he attempted something like that.

If it were me, I would give the president a clean debt ceiling bill, but hold my ground on the federal government shut down until at the very least we got a year extension on the individual mandate. And then I'd look forward to the next debt ceiling debate letting the president know what we're coming for next time.
I like this. Shows that the R's are willing to negotiate and compromise, and takes heat off of the House and puts it on the President.
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Old 10-08-2013, 07:59 PM   #41
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Originally Posted by Aries Walker View Post
I was just thinking earlier today that I bet Dick Lugar, with his background in working across the aisle and his penchant for cooperation, would have been a great asset in this crisis. Too bad he was primaried by a Tea Party stooge who ended up saying something dumb about rape and getting manhandled by an Indiana Democrat.
The tea party movement is the best thing that's happened to this country in a long time. It's a small sign that maybe someone is finally waking up to the idea that we can't keep voting ourselves a false prosperity that we can't afford and leaving the bill for our grandkids.
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Old 10-08-2013, 08:02 PM   #42
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keep voting ourselves a false prosperity that we can't afford and leaving the bill for our grandkids.
We can. Buts it's child abuse IMO. Because like you just stated,thats who will get stuck with paying for this mess
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Old 10-09-2013, 05:46 PM   #43
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Here's another interesting theory:

hypothetical:

The debt ceiling statute is in direct conflict with the 14th Amendment to the U.S. Constitution: "The validity of the public debt of the United States, authorized by law, including debts incurred for payments of pensions... shall not be questioned." With rock-paper-scissors simplicity, the Constitution always trumps an agency's enforcement of a mere statute.

Grandma Vendor-Bondholder Sues Jack Lew, Citing Perry v. U.S

An individual with standing to claim concrete, "particularized" harm from a default could file an emergency federal lawsuit. The perfect trifecta plaintiff is an individual who is a Social Security pensioner, long-term government vendor, and Treasury bondholder.

Grandma Vendor-Bondholder would ask the court for a declaratory judgment to invalidate the debt ceiling statute as unconstitutional and for an injunction against the Treasury's enforcement of the unconstitutional law. Emergency appellate certification could follow, fast tracking the case to the Supreme Court. Contrary to her reputation, Lady Justice can be lightning fast when she needs to be.

Strong precedent to support such an individual bondholder lawsuit exists. When Congress attempted to renege on a national bond obligation during the Great Depression, the Supreme Court struck down the congressional act as contrary to the 14th Amendment's Public Debt Clause.

In Perry v. United States, the Supreme Court ruled that Section 4 of the 14th Amendment confirms a "fundamental principle" applicable to all manner of public debt and government obligation. In the 1935 opinion, Chief Justice Charles Evans Hughes stated that "the validity of the public debt" language of the 14th Amendment embraces "whatever concerns the integrity of the public obligations." Hughes wrote:

Quote:
By virtue of the power to borrow money 'on the credit of the United States,' the Congress is authorized to pledge that credit as an assurance of payment as stipulated, as the highest assurance the government can give, its plighted faith. To say that the Congress may withdraw or ignore that pledge is to assume that the Constitution contemplates a vain promise; a pledge having no other sanction than the pleasure and convenience of the pledgor. This Court has given no sanction to such a conception of the obligations of our government.


We now have days not weeks to avoid a debt default. If Congress dishonors its "plighted faith," individual litigants will have no choice but to sue. Justice Anthony Kennedy is right when he says: "Any society that relies on nine unelected judges to resolve the most serious issues of the day is not a functioning democracy." It will be up to the voters in 2014 to clean House of the Tea Party extremists.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/victor...b_4054950.html
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Old 10-09-2013, 07:01 PM   #44
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Originally Posted by patteeu View Post
I don't have one. I thought the Republicans would be in a worse position wrt the public than they are now and that they'd cave pretty early. Now I don't know. From my point of view, Obama is looking pretty bad with his "I'd be more than happy to negotiate after they give me what I want" stance, but I try not to overestimate the ability of the population to see through bullshit.
This is where I was at as well. However, Obama keeps shooting himself in the phone left and right and is taking a dive in the polls.

His refusal to negotiate is asinine.
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Old 10-09-2013, 07:08 PM   #45
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Its looking like the GOP will cave on the debt limit, maybe even tomorrow.
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