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Old 10-11-2013, 12:06 PM  
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Sagarin NFL Ratings: Chiefs #8 (#32 SOS)

Anyone disagree? In the rating we have the worst schedule in the NFL so far, with Denver only 1 slot better. After this week when they've played Jax it might change, but we are playing the 2-3 Raiders so it might still be close.


http://sagarin.com/sports/nflsend.htm



On point differential however, we have an expected W/L record of 4.3-0.7 whereas Denver is only 3.8-1.2. However, the simple rating system (Pro Football Reference) has them at a whopping 15.4 vs us at 8.9 based on our low SOS. We're behind the same Sagarin teams like Seattle, Indy, NE, etc:

http://www.pro-football-reference.co...s/kan/2013.htm




I'm having trouble finding any computer ranking that puts us in the Top 5. This computer ranking system was the worst at 16th overall which seems stupid but at least he's predicting a 6.03 point win vs Oakland Sunday:
http://talismanred.com/ratings/nfl.shtml
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Old 10-15-2013, 03:12 PM   #46
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Quote:
Originally Posted by OnTheWarpath58 View Post
No doubt. You can only play who you're scheduled to play.

But on the flip side of that, surely you can understand why the national media, and even fans of the team aren't exactly sure how good they are just yet.

They've let two bad teams hang around until the 4th quarter, and almost let a backup QB beat them.

And speaking of backup QB's, this is shaping up to look a lot like 2010, when we kept facing backup QB's. Looks like we're going to get a backup 5 weeks in a row. Yes, we're taking advantage of it, but it doesn't give a clear picture of what to expect when we actually play a team with a real offense.
Valid points on the back-up QB's argument, and I can see that point. The other side of the argument between 2010 and 2013 was that the 2010 defense was nowhere near good compared to 2013. Surely we can agree that 2013 defense is worlds better than 2010?

It's also not KC fault that the other team has to play with back-up QB, as that's just the way it goes in the NFL these days, either by injury or ineffectiveness. Last year, our back-up QB (as well as the starter) was terrible, and 14 teams benefited from it.

Gabbert/Henne (Henne only played a small fraction in the 4th quarter)
Romo.
Vick.
E. Manning.
Fitzgerald.
Pryor.

Out of the 6 teams we played, only Fitzgerald was the only back-up QB, and he was a starter in Buffalo, so it's not like he is Brady Quinn by any means.
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Old 10-15-2013, 03:13 PM   #47
OnTheWarpath58 OnTheWarpath58 is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Prison Bitch View Post
Please don't say that. Even though I'm afraid you might be right.
Right or wrong, it's part of the reason why there are a lot of doubters in the national media.
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Old 10-15-2013, 03:26 PM   #48
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That Talisman link in the first post looks really strange by the numbers, and he has KC barely winning over Houston this week. I'd be pretty surprised if we lost that game. But if we do the doubters will be on fire.
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Old 10-15-2013, 03:33 PM   #49
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The 1972 Dolphins guys on TV each seem to have little concern about their strength of schedule during that season.
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Old 10-15-2013, 05:40 PM   #50
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Quote:
Originally Posted by frazod View Post
Funny how Denver's opponents have an equally shitty record, yet nobody seems to hold that against them.

I guess even Sagarin's computer is set to ballwash Manning.
It's kind of explained in the link.... the Broncos have played one more top 10 team than the Chiefs and even though their SoS is about the same, the difference of 3 points comes from the margin of victory.

Sagarin rating:
Broncos: 28.62
Chiefs: 25.3
Difference: 3.32

Average margin of victory:
Broncos: 17.83
Chiefs: 14.5
Difference: 3.33


Quote:
ELO_SCORE applies ELO principles to the actual SCORES of the games and so it is now SCORE BASED
and thus should be a good match for the PURE POINTS in terms of predictive accuracy for upcoming games.
PURE POINTS is also known as PREDICTOR, BALLANTINE, RHEINGOLD, WHITE OWL and is also a very good PREDICTOR
of future games.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
The overall RATING is a synthesis of the two somewhat different SCORE BASED methods,
ELO_SCORE and PURE POINTS (PREDICTOR), and thus should be a good predictor in its own right.
NFL ratings will be updated after games of Sunday and again after the Monday night game.
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Old 10-15-2013, 05:56 PM   #51
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Originally Posted by Prison Bitch View Post
The SOS is important because it explains why we're only #6 overall despite having the record we have. It won't improve either with our next two dog opponents. I think our fans who are still a bit conflicted on how good we really are have a fair point to make.
SOS isnt important
Sagarin ratings aren't important
Paper Champions are not crowned

The Chiefs and Broncos is are the best teams in the league. That's all that is important.
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Old 10-15-2013, 06:23 PM   #52
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I don't see any way to prove we are better than, say, Seattle.
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Old 10-15-2013, 06:52 PM   #53
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Old 10-21-2013, 11:48 AM   #54
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Dropped from 6th to 9th after yesterdays win.
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Old 10-21-2013, 11:51 AM   #55
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sagarin is ****ing worthless.
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Old 10-21-2013, 11:53 AM   #56
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Dropped from 6th to 9th after yesterdays win.
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Old 10-21-2013, 11:54 AM   #57
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Old 10-21-2013, 11:57 AM   #58
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sagarin is ****ing worthless for NFL.
fify
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Old 10-21-2013, 12:03 PM   #59
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I don't know, according to his rankings we have played 1 game vs his top-16. Everyone in front of us has played 3, including the Colts who have played a whopping 5. Until we start beating teams with a pulse, we're not going to do well in his rating. Nor should we.
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Old 10-21-2013, 12:10 PM   #60
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Quote:
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I don't know, according to his rankings we have played 1 game vs his top-16. Everyone in front of us has played 3, including the Colts who have played a whopping 5. Until we start beating teams with a pulse, we're not going to do well in his rating. Nor should we.
I think most power rankings factor in the present week more than previous weeks while this seems to factor in everything equally. I'm okay with this.

Peter King has us at number 1 which is fine too.
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