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Old 10-15-2013, 02:08 PM  
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The (unintended) genious of the GOP debt ceiling "plan"

I highly doubt that the GOP planned any of this but I think the current situation has a good chance of working out heavily in their favor IF they accept some minor concessions from the Dems and move on.

Here is why...

If they had simply made this fight about spending and NOT tried to force the Dems to defund or delay Obamacare I honestly think the Dems would have put forth a delay themselves after finding out how far from finished the website truly was. As it stands the GOP's stance has made it impossible for the Dems to enact a delay without giving the GOP a massive "win."

I have stated all along that an Obamacare delay would backfire against the GOP by 1)pushing this massively unpopular issue back past the next election and 2)giving the Dems time to "fix" the system enough to make it more palatable.

The debt ceiling issue and govt shutdown will be long forgotten from the ephemeral public consciousness by the time the next election hits. What little memory remains will be of how the current govt doesn't work and we need to "throw the bums out." That kind of attitude hurts the Dems FAR worse than it does the GOP.

Barring more GOP screwups I honestly think we'll see a 50/50 or 51/49 split after 2014. (Of course 50/50 doesn't help the GOP much)
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Old 10-16-2013, 08:10 PM   #151
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Old 10-16-2013, 08:21 PM   #152
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It isn't a question of semantics or an absurd argument. YOU made a ridiculous claim that it would be a technical default NO MATTER WHAT. That there was NO WAY to avoid a technical default. You have been proven to be dead wrong. It's fear mongering blanket crap like that that I aim to disprove.

Just admit it, you were wrong. Just like Cosmo (who also won't man up) won't admit he was wrong about the S&P downgrade causing a jump in interest rates.
I said if there was no deal we would have a technical default. If we go to November 1st, the funds will not be there to pay all of our obligations. Yes, we would more than likely to pay our interest and maybe roll some debt but that would come at the expense of other obligations AT THAT POINT WE WOULD BE IN TECHNICAL DEFAULT. I really don't get why you don't understand that.

In any event, a technical default may not matter immediately.

Peruse this (post at the source has links for source material at different points)

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The prospect of a US technical default is unfortunately becoming an ever greater reality.

That said, there’s no reason to panic just yet.

If there is a D-day it isn’t until November 15.

What’s more, there’s an ever louder chorus of voices suggesting that a technical default may not matter at all.

How can that be?


Well, for one thing, there’s a multitude of tricks the Treasury and the Fed working in partnership with the Treasury could play to avoid a crisis. A few of them are outlined here and here.

More interesting, however, is the idea that they may not have to do anything too outlandish at all.

There is indeed a very good chance that the strength, size and solvency of the US debt market will prevail of its own accord.

After all, solvency is not necessarily up for negotiation.

If the market believes you are solvent, wants you to be solvent, and considers you to be solvent — solvent you will be. Payments or no-payments. The state of solvency is ultimately bestowed upon you by the market, it is not determined by politicians or credit rating agencies. Whatever politicians and credit agencies say, if the market disagrees this is what matters ultimately.

Indeed, the sophistication of the modern financial system, as well as the shadow banking network embedded within it, has the ability to keep the US debt market functioning indefinitely.

A technical default at most would freeze immediate payments. But if the market continues to believe in the solvency of the US, they will continue to circulate those claims regardless. Which means the fate of the US will be determined by market psychology not a handful of loose cannon politicians in Washington. The fact that there is no cross-default clause will help immensely on this front as well.

Everything becomes a question of ‘when’ rather than ‘whether’. The great thing for markets is that ‘when’ creates an incentive to hold securities regardless. It also provides a monetisation or substitution mechanism for those who need the cash payments immediately or are not allowed to hold defaulted securities.

For example, thanks to the repo market, you can bet your bottom defaulted dollar, that a grey market for defaulted securities will soon develop. That means if you’re not keen to wait for payment, you’ll no doubt be able to monetise your defaulted security via someone else in the market who will be willing to wait around — especially if interest payments continue to accumulate at a penalty rate and/or the security can be obtained at a sizeable discount.

Consequently, missing a payment may set a bad precedent but it may not be a disaster. In fact, if things continue to run smoothly regardless, this could speak volumes for the fear mongering claims of debt-obsessed politicians and be a major victory for Obama — showing the world at large that debt levels are in fact endogenous in nature, they are determined by the needs and wants of the market.

Here’s repo specialist Scott Skyrm making the point about why it’s always a matter of when not whether (our emphasis):
Here’s an important part about the “technical default.” It’s not whether investors get their money back, it’s a matter of when. Certainly, it’s a bad precedent for Treasurys to miss a payment and it will affect the liquidity premium of Treasurys in the future. However, when a Treasury misses a coupon payment, the holder on the payment date will have a money-wire fail from the Treasury. The next day, that Treasury continues to accrue interest for the next coupon period, so the missed payment should only affect the Treasury holder on that record date, and not going forward. The missed payments will get paid back immediately when a new debt deal made. So, in the end, it’s a matter of how much time the investor must wait before getting paid back, and some uncertainty during that wait.
Remember again, the technical default only affects Treasurys maturing or paying coupons over the next few weeks. There are also questions as to which investors and organizations are allowed to hold defaulted Treasurys; some will and some won’t. It’s whether missed payment Treasurys can be pledged at an exchange, clearing bank, in customer Seg funds, given to Repo cash investors, or central clearing counterparties. The biggest question is whether the Fed can accept defaulted Treasurys as collateral. Since the idea of Treasurys defaulting has always been considered impossible, we’ll have to look for announcements over the coming days from each organization.

Which suggests a default that no-one cares about could be the incident the world needs to prove that the debt level isn’t the bogeyman some would have you believe.

Indeed, the worst outcome of all this — as Paul Krugman has already argued – is if endeavors to keep payments going divert spending from vital areas of the economy over to debt holders, in a way that ends up majorly constraining growth.

Such moves would indeed be the equivalent of sucking the economy dry — in a way that only increases the share of a shrinking pie for those doing the sucking.
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Old 10-16-2013, 08:57 PM   #153
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I really find this to be about the stupidest of all "insults." You don't know me or how much I make. But I'm supposed to be insulted because someone I don't know says I'm on food stamps. Ouch.

You are an idiot. This I can observe about you from your posts.
how long have you been here?

it's "your and idiot"...

try to keep up...
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Old 10-16-2013, 09:07 PM   #154
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I think you are dead wrong about a delay. Obamacare's launch has been a complete disaster and I think without the GOP fight on this the Dems would have happily delayed it enough to get it fixed.

It's ludicrous to think that this shutdown has driven Obamacare from the news and it won't be a top story for the rest of the year. The shutdown is about to end and NOW the media can focus on Obamacare and the defenders can't even use the tired "it's a popular launch, give it a few days" excuse anymore.
Then let it die on its own accord.

The Republicans should have chosen their battles instead of trying to win every single battle at the same time. If they objected to Obamacare, then make that your platform. They didn't do that. Instead, they acted like a party that would vote "no" if Obama put to the vote a question of whether grass was green.
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Old 10-16-2013, 09:15 PM   #155
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Then let it die on its own accord.

The Republicans should have chosen their battles instead of trying to win every single battle at the same time. If they objected to Obamacare, then make that your platform. They didn't do that. Instead, they acted like a party that would vote "no" if Obama put to the vote a question of whether grass was green.
The problem with "letting it die on its own" is that I think the Dems would have enacted a much needed delay to clean things up. Now they have to swallow the nonfunctional website and all its mess along with people getting sticker shock once they find out it isn't "free shit."

There are a ton of people WITHOUT insurance who are going to find that all this law does is force them to buy insurance they already can't afford.

Regarding the GOP, no question that they are fractured and often misguided. I' am just putting forth a possible outcome from all this.
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Old 10-16-2013, 09:36 PM   #156
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George Schwab of Charlotte, who pays $228 a month for his family’s $10,000 deductible plan from Blue Cross and Blue Shield of North Carolina.

...
So you know what the terms 'anecdotal' or 'apples to oranges' even mean? You've continually made it sound like a majority of people are going to see their premiums skyrocket. That's simply not true any more than your fantasy about the republicans winning the day in this debacle.
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Old 10-17-2013, 08:27 AM   #157
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The problem with "letting it die on its own" is that I think the Dems would have enacted a much needed delay to clean things up. Now they have to swallow the nonfunctional website and all its mess along with people getting sticker shock once they find out it isn't "free shit."

There are a ton of people WITHOUT insurance who are going to find that all this law does is force them to buy insurance they already can't afford.

Regarding the GOP, no question that they are fractured and often misguided. I' am just putting forth a possible outcome from all this.
Look, I despise Obama care. I want it repealed. But the idiocy of the tea party took the eye completely off the prize.

In business, I've learned a few critical lessons. One, you can't change everything. So pick a few big ones and laser focus on it. Two, you have to lose a few small ones to gain the leverage to win the big ones.

The Republicans should have been laser focused on Obama care. They didn't do that. Instead, they led a massive revolt on government in general and their unpopularity has lost them any voice to ever bitch about Obama care in the future.

If the GOP doesn't focus their message, they will make no movement on Obama care even if it's a disaster.
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Old 10-17-2013, 11:12 AM   #158
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The House voted to repeal Obamacare 41 times and shut down the govt over it. I'm not sure how much more laser-focused you can get.
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Old 10-17-2013, 01:05 PM   #159
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The House voted to repeal Obamacare 41 times and shut down the govt over it. I'm not sure how much more laser-focused you can get.
They spent the last 6 months talking about immigration, entitlements, all forms of government spending. Obama a care was always voted against but only became a focal point at the 25th hour. The GOP was the party of no. Everything Obama proposed they raised a stink about it.
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Old 10-17-2013, 01:11 PM   #160
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So you know what the terms 'anecdotal' or 'apples to oranges' even mean? You've continually made it sound like a majority of people are going to see their premiums skyrocket. That's simply not true any more than your fantasy about the republicans winning the day in this debacle.
It's a mathematical certainty that a majority of people are going to see their premiums skyrocket. Some people will see it sooner than others, but in the end, within three years, all of us will be paying hundreds more for diminished service. Even Democrats have to obey math. When you add more people to the rolls who will take up more of the services, the prices will increase to absorb them. There's no magic wand that eliminates arithmetics.
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Old 10-17-2013, 01:39 PM   #161
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Originally Posted by Taco John View Post
It's a mathematical certainty that a majority of people are going to see their premiums skyrocket. Some people will see it sooner than others, but in the end, within three years, all of us will be paying hundreds more for diminished service. Even Democrats have to obey math. When you add more people to the rolls who will take up more of the services, the prices will increase to absorb them. There's no magic wand that eliminates arithmetics.
You have no idea of how insurance works either.
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Old 10-17-2013, 03:17 PM   #162
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It's a mathematical certainty that a majority of people are going to see their premiums skyrocket. Some people will see it sooner than others, but in the end, within three years, all of us will be paying hundreds more for diminished service. Even Democrats have to obey math. When you add more people to the rolls who will take up more of the services, the prices will increase to absorb them. There's no magic wand that eliminates arithmetics.
That's not the way insurance works, dude. The more people you insure, the better. One of the big reasons premiums are so high is that your low risk pool isn't obligated to buy insurance. I'm torn on this because I hate the individual mandate. But there's no doubt that when 25 year olds opt out of health insurance, it raises everyone's premium rates. It's the law of large numbers. It's insurance 101.

Some of that is neutralized by now adding insureds with pre-existing conditions, but that's a bullshit reason to deny someone coverage anyway.
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Old 10-17-2013, 06:56 PM   #163
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Originally Posted by Taco John View Post
It's a mathematical certainty that a majority of people are going to see their premiums skyrocket. Some people will see it sooner than others, but in the end, within three years, all of us will be paying hundreds more for diminished service. Even Democrats have to obey math. When you add more people to the rolls who will take up more of the services, the prices will increase to absorb them. There's no magic wand that eliminates arithmetics.
Did premiums for corporate insurance skyrocket in Massachusettes?

The whole idea is you get the healthy people as well as the sick who are currently without insurance. There is absolutely no reason to think that's going to raise my corporate insurance premiums.
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Old 10-30-2013, 03:41 PM   #164
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It's a mathematical certainty that a majority of people are going to see their premiums skyrocket. Some people will see it sooner than others, but in the end, within three years, all of us will be paying hundreds more for diminished service. Even Democrats have to obey math. When you add more people to the rolls who will take up more of the services, the prices will increase to absorb them. There's no magic wand that eliminates arithmetics.
Premium renewal came out today for our company. Mine went up $12.80 a month. 9.37%. They state that only 3.75% of that is due to Obamacare. More than 60% of that is not attributed to Obamacare.
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Old 10-30-2013, 03:49 PM   #165
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Premium renewal came out today for our company. Mine went up $12.80 a month. 9.37%. They state that only 3.75% of that is due to Obamacare. More than 60% of that is not attributed to Obamacare.
This is a bit lower than I expected but I would imagine that most decent company plans will see small increases due to Obamacare. I was thinking more along the lines of 10% increases attributable to ACA (in addition to normal increases) but nothing huge like the individual market is seeing.
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