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Old 10-15-2013, 03:08 PM  
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The (unintended) genious of the GOP debt ceiling "plan"

I highly doubt that the GOP planned any of this but I think the current situation has a good chance of working out heavily in their favor IF they accept some minor concessions from the Dems and move on.

Here is why...

If they had simply made this fight about spending and NOT tried to force the Dems to defund or delay Obamacare I honestly think the Dems would have put forth a delay themselves after finding out how far from finished the website truly was. As it stands the GOP's stance has made it impossible for the Dems to enact a delay without giving the GOP a massive "win."

I have stated all along that an Obamacare delay would backfire against the GOP by 1)pushing this massively unpopular issue back past the next election and 2)giving the Dems time to "fix" the system enough to make it more palatable.

The debt ceiling issue and govt shutdown will be long forgotten from the ephemeral public consciousness by the time the next election hits. What little memory remains will be of how the current govt doesn't work and we need to "throw the bums out." That kind of attitude hurts the Dems FAR worse than it does the GOP.

Barring more GOP screwups I honestly think we'll see a 50/50 or 51/49 split after 2014. (Of course 50/50 doesn't help the GOP much)
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Old 10-16-2013, 02:28 PM   #91
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Whereas you AC "address" every point with semantic arcane wordplay that isn't worth taking the time to unravel.

Bottom line: there is zero "genious" in the GOP's plan. Obamacare is going to have warts, but succeed and eventually hurt the GOP a lot. Everyone who now has health insurance where they couldn't get it before is going to remember who wants to desperately take that away. That is what they're afraid of, and since you're not a mouth-breather, I'm sure you realize it beneath all the disingenuous spin.

All the rest is just you doing your best to spin and distract from the real issue.

Last edited by suzzer99; 10-16-2013 at 02:35 PM..
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Old 10-16-2013, 02:40 PM   #92
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Quote:
Originally Posted by suzzer99 View Post
Whereas you AC "address" every point with semantic arcane wordplay that isn't worth taking the time to unravel.

Bottom line: there is zero "genious" in the GOP's plan. Obamacare is going to have warts, but succeed and eventually hurt the GOP a lot. Everyone who now has health insurance where they couldn't get it before is going to remember who wants to desperately take that away. That is what they're afraid of, and since you're not a mouth-breather, I'm sure you realize it beneath all the disingenuous spin.
You do know what the word arcane mean right? Just because YOU don't understand something doesn't make it arcane..

There is nothing disingenuous about what I am saying. Obamacare is in no way shape or form a positive for healthcare in America. It will increase costs while infringing on people's rights and forcing them to subsidize a corrupt insurance industry. It's a giant corporate welfare program that helps only a very few while HURTING vast numbers of Americans. I fully expect the American people to see it as such in the long run... BUT that isn't what this thread is about... this thread is about short term political crap leading up to 2014!

Let's start out simple: Imagine the GOP is silent. Do you agree that given the MASSIVE failure of HealthCare.gov the Dems would have considered delaying things until they could fix them and have a proper rollout?
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Old 10-16-2013, 02:44 PM   #93
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Originally Posted by AustinChief View Post
Complete and utter bullshit and you should know better. In this context when talking about "default", the term means a US DEBT DEFAULT and you know it.

YOU are the one trying to take what is a clearly defined term and stretch it to cover your agenda.

Seriously, **** you for pulling that bullshit. That's dishonest as hell.
Ok, I forgot you worked IT at a small bank once and are an expert in finance. I'm not the only person that says this.

If you default on any of your obligations, you are in default. Prioritizing payments, skipping payments, delaying payments, or reducing payments for any of your obligations puts you in default. The government can't pick and choose what it's going to pay to avoid default. Again, your narrow definition of default doesn't reflect the reality of the situation. Default is default is default. Narrowing it to debt doesn't alter the fact that the Treasury would have to skip other obligations to make payments on our debt. That is a technical default.
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Old 10-16-2013, 02:45 PM   #94
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Ah, FOR HIM it's dishonest because he works in finance and the term(unless otherwise specified) has this specific meaning. That is why it is particularly onerous coming from him.

There is another issue that makes it dishonest as well... you can't STRETCH the term default to mean "not paying for anything I want to pay for." THat is what he is trying to do. You could possibly stretch it to mean all OBLIGATED payments (also a DEFINED term) but we have enough revenue to cover all of those as well. Social Security is a good example of an obligated payment. On the other hand, paying to keep the FDA running is NOT an obligated payment.

So if he wants to use default to cover all obligated payments (he really should specify that but owell) he would still be wrong.
A technical default is still default.

For those that don't know, there are two types of default. A debt service default and a technical default. Both are considered defaults.
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Old 10-16-2013, 02:47 PM   #95
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Originally Posted by AustinChief View Post
You do know what the word arcane mean right? Just because YOU don't understand something doesn't make it arcane..

There is nothing disingenuous about what I am saying. Obamacare is in no way shape or form a positive for healthcare in America. It will increase costs while infringing on people's rights and forcing them to subsidize a corrupt insurance industry. It's a giant corporate welfare program that helps only a very few while HURTING vast numbers of Americans. I fully expect the American people to see it as such in the long run... BUT that isn't what this thread is about... this thread is about short term political crap leading up to 2014!

Let's start out simple: Imagine the GOP is silent. Do you agree that given the MASSIVE failure of HealthCare.gov the Dems would have considered delaying things until they could fix them and have a proper rollout?
nope, i don't agree...

delay for any reason would play into the republican strategy of defeating obamacare by delaying it until they can actually repeal it...
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Old 10-16-2013, 02:50 PM   #96
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Originally Posted by Race Card native View Post
Ok, I forgot you worked IT at a small bank once and are an expert in finance. I'm not the only person that says this.

If you default on any of your obligations, you are in default. Prioritizing payments, skipping payments, delaying payments, or reducing payments for any of your obligations puts you in default. The government can't pick and choose what it's going to pay to avoid default. Again, your narrow definition of default doesn't reflect the reality of the situation. Default is default is default. Narrowing it to debt doesn't alter the fact that the Treasury would have to skip other obligations to make payments on our debt. That is a technical default.
You have a DEBT default which is what all these conversations have been about and you have a much broader "technical" default which is a default on OBLIGATED PAYMENTS. So you are on the right track with this post... but you ignore the fact that we have enough revenue to avoid even a TECHNICAL default.

Last I checked, keeping the ATF running is NOT an obligated payment.

You are trying to expand default past debt default which is fine (if you specify) but you can't just expand it to include "shit I think we should pay for cuz I want it!"
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Old 10-16-2013, 02:53 PM   #97
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Originally Posted by go bowe View Post
nope, i don't agree...

delay for any reason would play into the republican strategy of defeating obamacare by delaying it until they can actually repeal it...
And that's fine. It's conjecture on my part, but I think the minor set back of a delay would be far outweighed by the benefit of time to get things fixed. My guess is they would have put in a 3 month delay pushing back all deadlines but not giving the GOP any extra room for a repeal. I think it would have simply been another Obama fiat.
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Old 10-16-2013, 02:54 PM   #98
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Where is your evidence of this? Please refrain from posting apples to oranges anecdotal evidence that you got off Drudge.

George Schwab of Charlotte, who pays $228 a month for his family’s $10,000 deductible plan from Blue Cross and Blue Shield of North Carolina.

In a Sept. 23 letter, Blue Cross notified him that his current plan doesn’t meet benefit requirements outlined in the Affordable Care Act and suggested a comparable plan for $1,208 a month – $980 more than he now pays.

Read more here: http://www.charlotteobserver.com/201...#storylink=cpy




Michael Hood, 46, who lives near Winston-Salem, is another of the Blue Cross customers who is suffering sticker shock after receiving a recent renewal letter.

He and his wife, who is expecting their third child, now pay $324 per month for a plan with a $10,000 family deductible. The comparable plan suggested by Blue Cross for next year would cost $895.27 per month with an $11,000 family deductible. Their annual payment would rise from $14,000 to $24,000.

Read more here: http://www.charlotteobserver.com/201...#storylink=cpy

-----

My wife and I just got our updates from Kaiser telling us what our 2014 rates will be. Her monthly has been $168 this year, mine $150. We have a high deductible. We are generally healthy people who don't go to the doctor often. I barely ever go. The insurance is in case of a major catastrophe.

Well, now, because of Obamacare, my wife's rate is gong to $302 per month and mine is jumping to $284.

I am canceling insurance for us and I am not paying any ****ing penalty. What the hell kind of reform is this?

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2013/0...onthly-premium

-----

Cindy Vinson and Tom Waschura are big believers in the Affordable Care Act. They vote independent and are proud to say they helped elect and re-elect President Barack Obama.

Yet, like many other Bay Area residents who pay for their own medical insurance, they were floored last week when they opened their bills: Their policies were being replaced with pricier plans that conform to all the requirements of the new health care law.

Vinson, of San Jose, will pay $1,800 more a year for an individual policy, while Waschura, of Portola Valley, will cough up almost $10,000 more for insurance for his family of four.

http://www.mercurynews.com/nation-wo...osers-bay-area

-------

But people with no pre-existing conditions like Vinson, a 60-year-old retired teacher, and Waschura, a 52-year-old self-employed engineer, are making up the difference.

"I was laughing at Boehner -- until the mail came today," Waschura said, referring to House Speaker John Boehner, who is leading the Republican charge to defund Obamacare.

"I really don't like the Republican tactics, but at least now I can understand why they are so pissed about this. When you take $10,000 out of my family's pocket each year, that's otherwise disposable income or retirement savings that will not be going into our local economy."

Both Vinson and Waschura have adjusted gross incomes greater than four times the federal poverty level -- the cutoff for a tax credit. And while both said they anticipated their rates would go up, they didn't realize they would rise so much.

"Of course, I want people to have health care," Vinson said. "I just didn't realize I would be the one who was going to pay for it personally."

http://www.mercurynews.com/nation-wo...osers-bay-area

------

Health insurance premiums for young people will rise in all 50 states under Obamacare, with an average increase of 260 percent, according to a study released Thursday.

According to a study released by the American Action Forum, post-Obamacare premiums will average $187.08 per month, up from $62 per month in 2013, a 202 percent increase. Overall, states averaged an increase of 260 percent.

Forty-four out of 50 states saw a three-digit percent increase, and in Vermont the cheapest available premium for a 30 year-old male nonsmoker will increase by $332.69, or 600 percent.

http://freebeacon.com/study-premiums...all-50-states/

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After analyzing each bronze-tier plan for a 30-year-old single male, every state saw an increase. Most saw an increase between 200 and 300 percent, with the top five occurring in Vermont, Georgia, Nebraska, Arkansas, and Wisconsin.

http://freebeacon.com/study-premiums...all-50-states/


------

"I just got my benefits renewal from Blue Cross for next year and they doubled my rate!" he wrote AL.com in an email. "I was paying $675 for a family premium (2 adults, one 22 yo dependent) with a $1,500 deducible. The new rate for a comparable plan is $1,360 with a $3,000 deductible. Basically they have doubled my costs."

http://blog.al.com/spotnews/2013/10/...why_are_s.html


------

Obama thinks that he is making insurance affordable. I just got a letter from my Blue Cross Blue Shield that if I want to keep their insurance it's going to cost me $300 more a month. I already pay $300 a month now and they're wanting right at $600 a month for this Affordable Care Act that Obama has.


http://www.al.com/opinion/index.ssf/...ess-regis.html

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Obamacare Will Increase Avg. Individual-Market Insurance Premiums By 99% For Men, 62% For Women

Based on a Manhattan Institute analysis of the HHS numbers, Obamacare will increase underlying insurance rates for younger men by an average of 97 to 99 percent, and for younger women by an average of 55 to 62 percent. Worst off is North Carolina, which will see individual-market rates triple for women, and quadruple for men.

http://www.forbes.com/sites/theapoth...-62-for-women/

------

"We would have to pay, out of pocket, for all of our prescriptions until we reached that $9,000 family deductible," said Jaynes.

The plan includes three doctor visits, with a $60 co-pay and a free wellness check. But prescription drugs are not covered until Jaynes pays a big deductible.

That's a critical issue for Jaynes because she suffers from migraines but it will cost her another $330 a month to upgrade. She makes too much money to qualify for subsidies.

http://abclocal.go.com/kgo/story?sec...ide&id=9288812

-------

Choosing a state at random, the Manhattan Institute reports that before the ACA, the average 27-year-old male in Arkansas could buy a health insurance policy for roughly $54 a month. According to the White House website, on the ACA exchange, the average lowest-priced plan will be three times more expensive, costing him around $181 a month – a 235 percent increase. If he were to purchase a stripped-down catastrophic plan, it would cost roughly $135 per month, two-and-a-half times more than his current insurance.

http://www.usnews.com/opinion/blogs/...or-millennials


-----

before the ACA, the average 27-year old woman in Arkansas could get health insurance for around $81 per month. On the ACA exchange she will pay roughly $181 for the average lowest-priced plan, more than doubling her cost of health insurance. If she were to get the $135 per month catastrophic insurance coverage – the cheapest insurance offered on the exchange – it will still cost 66 percent more than her current insurance.

http://www.usnews.com/opinion/blogs/...or-millennials

-----
Donavan, 41 of San Francisco, is self-employed and buys his own health insurance. Currently he pays $841 per month for insurance for himself, his wife and three young children. Effective Jan. 1, that’s going up to $1,000, with a higher deductible.

Donavan says he voted for Obama in both elections and calls himself a “big proponent” of the health law. He has a pretty calm demeanor and says he was “surprised” by this news from Kaiser.

“I just keep coming back to the name ‘Affordable Care Act,’” he said. “I thought I’d pay the same or less for better coverage.”

http://blogs.kqed.org/stateofhealth/...iums-going-up/

-----

Tom Gialanella of Seattle, who is self-employed, told Fox News, "my premiums would increase approximately 61 percent. I went from $891 a month to $1437 dollars a month. And also my deductibles all doubled."

The letter from his insurer said his current deductible for his family of five would double from $4,000 a year to $8,000.

Even though that's for the Bronze Plan, the least expensive option under ObamaCare,he says his additional payment of$550 a month will give him a plan that is no better than what he already has. What’s more, it also it carries a benefit his family does not need: maternity and newborn care. Gialanella is almost 60 and makes too much money to get any subsidies.

-----


It had stunning news. Insurance for the Mangiones and their two boys,which they bought on the individual market, was going to almost triple in 2014 --- from $333 a month to $965.

The insurance carrier made it clear the increase was in order to be compliant with the new health care law.


http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2013...are-nightmare/

-----

The Office of the Commissioner of Insurance has not released information on the premiums but did put out estimates on the projected increase in costs for individuals.

It estimated that premiums would increase 45.48% to 78.11% for an individual policy based on someone's age in the Milwaukee market. Its estimates also varied wildly throughout the state.

An actuarial study cited on the office's website had projected that medical costs would increase 80% by 2017.

http://www.jsonline.com/business/oba...225172842.html
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Old 10-16-2013, 02:56 PM   #99
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Originally Posted by AustinChief View Post
You have a DEBT default which is what all these conversations have been about and you have a much broader "technical" default which is a default on OBLIGATED PAYMENTS. So you are on the right track with this post... but you ignore the fact that we have enough revenue to avoid even a TECHNICAL default.

Last I checked, keeping the ATF running is NOT an obligated payment.

You are trying to expand default past debt default which is fine (if you specify) but you can't just expand it to include "shit I think we should pay for cuz I want it!"
actually "shit that congress has voted on and passed", creating the bills that congress should pay...
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Old 10-16-2013, 02:56 PM   #100
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Ok, I forgot you worked IT at a small bank once and are an expert in finance.
And listen dickless, I was a VP not just "working IT" and it wasn't that kind of bank. It was just a mortgage bank. So it has nothing to do with this conversation nor have I claimed it does.
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Old 10-16-2013, 02:57 PM   #101
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Originally Posted by go bowe View Post
actually "shit that congress has voted on and passed", creating the bills that congress should pay...
FUTURE bills for FUTURE services... not OBLIGATED payments. You guys act as if our govt is set in stone and we can't ever change a damn thing.
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Old 10-16-2013, 03:16 PM   #102
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FUTURE bills for FUTURE services... not OBLIGATED payments. You guys act as if our govt is set in stone and we can't ever change a damn thing.
You just need to face facts. The affordable care act was passed and it is the law. Not only that but the supreme court decided that even though how it was sold is and was a lie the reality of what it is does not violate the Constitution.

Just because you don’t like the law doesn’t mean you can go around changing it. You start doing that and the next thing you know the debt ceiling really isn’t a ceiling at all.
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Old 10-16-2013, 03:21 PM   #103
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You just need to face facts. The affordable care act was passed and it is the law. Not only that but the supreme court decided that even though how it was sold is and was a lie the reality of what it is does not violate the Constitution.

Just because you don’t like the law doesn’t mean you can go around changing it. You start doing that and the next thing you know the debt ceiling really isn’t a ceiling at all.
Holy crap I'm dying here. Best post I have read in a long time.
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Old 10-16-2013, 04:01 PM   #104
KC native KC native is offline
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Originally Posted by AustinChief View Post
You have a DEBT default which is what all these conversations have been about and you have a much broader "technical" default which is a default on OBLIGATED PAYMENTS. So you are on the right track with this post... but you ignore the fact that we have enough revenue to avoid even a TECHNICAL default.

Last I checked, keeping the ATF running is NOT an obligated payment.

You are trying to expand default past debt default which is fine (if you specify) but you can't just expand it to include "shit I think we should pay for cuz I want it!"
We have enough revenue to cover the bills for a week to two weeks past the 17th absent a deal.

No deal means a technical default. A technical default means default. No amount of arguing changes that.

Edit: Any type of default will raise US borrowing costs.
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Old 10-16-2013, 04:02 PM   #105
cosmo20002 cosmo20002 is online now
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AC, you are persistent, I'll give you that.
Persistent, wrong and hostile...always a winning combination.
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