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Old 10-24-2013, 10:25 PM  
cdcox cdcox is offline
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Math does not respect the Chiefs

Even though we are the only undefeated team, we only have a 6% chance of winning the Super Bowl. Ahead of us are:

Seattle 35%
Denver 16%
Cincinnati 11%
Indy 8%

and tied with SF.

This is according to my nfl-forecast.com software using team efficiency ratings from advancednflstats.com
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Old 10-24-2013, 10:44 PM   #16
AussieChiefsFan AussieChiefsFan is offline
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Originally Posted by Dave Lane View Post
I think 6% is overly optimistic personally.
That's a bit pessimistic of you.
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Old 10-24-2013, 10:47 PM   #17
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Old 10-24-2013, 10:49 PM   #18
DaneMcCloud DaneMcCloud is offline
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Originally Posted by Pam Oliver's Forehead View Post
That's because their attempts are low.

The Seahawks are a very efficient passing team.

Wilson is 6th in the league in completions of 20+ air yards, and 6th in the NFL in yards per completion and yards per attempt.

They can get chunks in the passing game.
Didn't you just say yesterday that total yards is the best indicator of a good offense?

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Dane is gonna have to leave again after we draft Geno.

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Old 10-24-2013, 10:50 PM   #19
cdcox cdcox is offline
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Originally Posted by ThaVirus View Post
Cdcox, how successful have your statistics been at determining playoff and Super Bowl success in past seasons?

I have all the results since 2006 archived on my blog:

http://files.nfl-forecast.com/archives/date/2012/10

All in all they've been pretty realistic. At this point in the season, most of the favorites end up making the playoffs with a few falling off and a few longer shots sneaking in. Which is what you'd expect.

The most embarrassing prediction was Denver in 2009. I had them at 99.8 something percent at this time of year and they ended up collapsing like a cheap lawn chair. Didn't mid being off on that one a bit.
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Old 10-24-2013, 10:50 PM   #20
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Cincy's got as good a shot as anyone else at this point. They've got a top 10 D and a QB who has made the playoffs his first two years.

Denver will not make it if their defense continues at their current pace. I don't care how good their passing efficiency is. You can argue this until you're blue in the face. You can't be bottom 5 in D and give up almost 30 ppg and win.
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Old 10-24-2013, 10:52 PM   #21
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Originally Posted by AussieChiefsFan View Post
That's a bit pessimistic of you.
About 20 teams are still in contention. That's better than average, and I'm not sure you have seen the product on the field in Australia. The O is pretty putrid. The D is pretty special. In the end we are gonna slip up before we win the SB
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Old 10-24-2013, 10:57 PM   #22
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Originally Posted by DaneMcCloud View Post
Didn't you just say yesterday that total yards is the best indicator of a good offense?

No. I said yards per play is the best indicator.

The Seahawks are, sure enough, 10th in yards per play.

They ain't no Chiefs.
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Old 10-24-2013, 11:05 PM   #23
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cdcox, which stat is the most predictive of future success?
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Old 10-24-2013, 11:12 PM   #24
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cdcox, which stat is the most predictive of future success?
Not having a shitty quarterback
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Old 10-24-2013, 11:17 PM   #25
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Originally Posted by MagicHef View Post
cdcox, which stat is the most predictive of future success?
According to Brian Burke at advancednflforecast.com, net passing yards per attempt, which is defined as follows:

OPASS = (offensive pass yds - sack yds) / pass plays
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Old 10-24-2013, 11:18 PM   #26
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Originally Posted by Pam Oliver's Forehead View Post
Your software really likes teams who throw the ball down the field.
His software really likes really good offenses paired with really good defenses.
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Old 10-24-2013, 11:27 PM   #27
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Originally Posted by cdcox View Post
According to Brian Burke at advancednflforecast.com, net passing yards per attempt, which is defined as follows:

OPASS = (offensive pass yds - sack yds) / pass plays
http://www.pro-football-reference.co...13/passing.htm

Alex is 30th in this stat.

In 2010, Cassel was 17th. He fell off to 29th and 28th his next two seasons.

Cassel > Alex

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Old 10-24-2013, 11:45 PM   #28
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Originally Posted by Pam Oliver's Forehead View Post
http://www.pro-football-reference.co...13/passing.htm

Alex is 30th in this stat.

In 2010, Cassel was 17th. He fell off to 29th and 28th his next two seasons.

Cassel > Alex

Cassel is at 6.34 this season.
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Old 10-24-2013, 11:57 PM   #29
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Originally Posted by MagicHef View Post
Cassel is at 6.34 this season.
Cassel > Alex

Fantastic.
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Old 10-25-2013, 12:35 AM   #30
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No. I said yards per play is the best indicator.

The Seahawks are, sure enough, 10th in yards per play.

They ain't no Chiefs.
Last year Alex Smith was 5th in the NFL at 8.0 yards per attempt, and 70% accuracy. That's pretty damn efficient. But all of you haters said he had to do that with more volume (total yards) or it didn't mean anything.

Which is it, dude? You're just a hater/troll. You'll find something wrong with everything. Your team is 7-0 and your QB is far from the "failure" that you thought he'd be. And it's his first year in a new offense, with a new coach, with players he's just getting to know. Last year in his 2nd year in Harbaugh's offense, he was on pace for a VERY efficient year. So , be patient, and try to see the good things that are happening with your team.

But you can't do that. Your pride is far stronger than your love for the Chiefs. You'd rather Smith fail, and thus the Chiefs lose, so that you can be right. Go **** yourself.
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