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Old 10-24-2013, 10:25 PM  
cdcox cdcox is offline
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Math does not respect the Chiefs

Even though we are the only undefeated team, we only have a 6% chance of winning the Super Bowl. Ahead of us are:

Seattle 35%
Denver 16%
Cincinnati 11%
Indy 8%

and tied with SF.

This is according to my nfl-forecast.com software using team efficiency ratings from advancednflstats.com
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Old 10-25-2013, 12:45 AM   #31
Guru Guru is offline
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Dagnabbit, this too has turned into a damn Smith bashing thread.
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Old 10-25-2013, 12:46 AM   #32
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Originally Posted by JF08 View Post
Last year Alex Smith was 5th in the NFL at 8.0 yards per attempt, and 70% accuracy. That's pretty damn efficient. But all of you haters said he had to do that with more volume (total yards) or it didn't mean anything.

Which is it, dude? You're just a hater/troll. You'll find something wrong with everything. Your team is 7-0 and your QB is far from the "failure" that you thought he'd be. And it's his first year in a new offense, with a new coach, with players he's just getting to know. Last year in his 2nd year in Harbaugh's offense, he was on pace for a VERY efficient year. So , be patient, and try to see the good things that are happening with your team.

But you can't do that. Your pride is far stronger than your love for the Chiefs. You'd rather Smith fail, and thus the Chiefs lose, so that you can be right. Go **** yourself.
sounds like everything that was said about Cassel in 2009. Well other than the 7-0 part.

Just pitching ya shit. Take no offense. heh
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Old 10-25-2013, 01:05 AM   #33
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Originally Posted by cdcox View Post
Even though we are the only undefeated team, we only have a 6% chance of winning the Super Bowl. Ahead of us are:

Seattle 35%
Denver 16%
Cincinnati 11%
Indy 8%

and tied with SF.

This is according to my nfl-forecast.com software using team efficiency ratings from advancednflstats.com
Pffft...Can "math" measure our hearts? Our souls? Thig's mojo? Or how loud we are or how much beer we're going to drink? A couple of those are yes...but NO!

Has "math" ever had 10 sacks in a game or dropped a 60-yard punt inside the 5 yard line or scrambled 7 yards for a first down because the O-line sucks so bad? Hell no!

So...you can take you fancy "math" and stick it. And I'll stick with THE CHUEFS! **** YEAH!!!!!
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Old 10-25-2013, 02:19 AM   #34
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Originally Posted by cosmo20002 View Post
Pffft...Can "math" measure our hearts? Our souls? Thig's mojo? Or how loud we are or how much beer we're going to drink? A couple of those are yes...but NO!

Has "math" ever had 10 sacks in a game or dropped a 60-yard punt inside the 5 yard line or scrambled 7 yards for a first down because the O-line sucks so bad? Hell no!

So...you can take you fancy "math" and stick it. And I'll stick with THE CHUEFS! **** YEAH!!!!!
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Old 10-25-2013, 05:04 AM   #35
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Originally Posted by cdcox View Post
I have all the results since 2006 archived on my blog:

http://files.nfl-forecast.com/archives/date/2012/10

All in all they've been pretty realistic. At this point in the season, most of the favorites end up making the playoffs with a few falling off and a few longer shots sneaking in. Which is what you'd expect.

The most embarrassing prediction was Denver in 2009. I had them at 99.8 something percent at this time of year and they ended up collapsing like a cheap lawn chair. Didn't mid being off on that one a bit.
Have you made any tweaks to your formula over the years?
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Old 10-25-2013, 05:06 AM   #36
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HOw the hell does Jacksonville still have a .02 percent shot at the playoffs and Tampa Bay has none?
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Old 10-25-2013, 06:23 AM   #37
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math beats smith with a billy club
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Old 10-25-2013, 06:25 AM   #38
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Originally Posted by Guru View Post
HOw the hell does Jacksonville still have a .02 percent shot at the playoffs and Tampa Bay has none?
Schiano.
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Old 10-25-2013, 06:32 AM   #39
Marcellus Marcellus is offline
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6%? Hell I figured before the season it was 0%.

I dont see it now at 7-0 so yea 6% seems reasonable.

If we keep winning obviously the number goes up just like everyone's expectations.
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Old 10-25-2013, 06:34 AM   #40
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6%? Hell I figured before the season it was 0%.

I dont see it now at 7-0 so yea 6% seems reasonable.

If we keep winning obviously the number goes up just like everyone's expectations.
The number will jump greatly if we get to 10-0.
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Old 10-25-2013, 07:26 AM   #41
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Cassel is at 6.34 this season.
Cassel aint 7-0!!!!!!!!
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Old 10-25-2013, 07:27 AM   #42
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HOw the hell does Jacksonville still have a .02 percent shot at the playoffs and Tampa Bay has none?
RICKY STANZI!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
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Old 10-25-2013, 07:55 AM   #43
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Cassel aint 7-0!!!!!!!!

A 92 QB rating and only 6 wins away from 7-1, which isn't too shabby!


Code:
                 	 CMP	ATT	YDS	CMP%	AVG	LNG	TD	INT	QBR	RAT	ATT	YDS	AVG	LNG	TD

REGULAR SEASON STATS	48	69	489	69.6	7.09	70	3	2	38.6	92.0	4	12	3.0	7	0
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Old 10-25-2013, 07:59 AM   #44
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That's fine. The majority of teams we have faced are garbage. Until we have a true test (denver) you can't gauge this teams ability to respond to adversity. We are essentially a mid-major pounding on cupcakes in the mean time.
Its not our fault we scheduled Northern Florida U. At least we don't play Florida Gulf U.
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Old 10-25-2013, 08:01 AM
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Old 10-25-2013, 09:21 AM   #45
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Last year Alex Smith was 5th in the NFL at 8.0 yards per attempt, and 70% accuracy. That's pretty damn efficient.
He was also 24th in yards per completion, and didn't throw TDs or throw down the field.

And that's why I didn't want him.

And now he's worse.
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