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Old 10-24-2013, 10:25 PM  
cdcox cdcox is offline
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Math does not respect the Chiefs

Even though we are the only undefeated team, we only have a 6% chance of winning the Super Bowl. Ahead of us are:

Seattle 35%
Denver 16%
Cincinnati 11%
Indy 8%

and tied with SF.

This is according to my nfl-forecast.com software using team efficiency ratings from advancednflstats.com
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Old 10-30-2013, 10:49 PM   #61
cdcox cdcox is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by MagicHef View Post
What are the other teams?
Cincinnati 26%
Denver 20%
Seattle 18%
SF 9%
NO 8%
GB 5%
Indy 4%

etc
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Old 10-30-2013, 10:51 PM   #62
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Quote:
Originally Posted by cdcox View Post
Cincinnati 26%
Denver 20%
Seattle 18%
SF 9%
NO 8%
GB 5%
Indy 4%

etc
I like the Bengals but not that much.
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Old 10-30-2013, 10:54 PM   #63
Count Zarth Count Zarth is offline
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Cincy boost seems too heavily weighted by one amazing week.
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Old 10-30-2013, 10:56 PM   #64
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I think the Bengals might be the most balanced team in the AFC... but I'm not sure if they should be that high. They've got a top 5 D and an offense hanging around the top 10. They'd probably be getting more respect if they didn't lose to Cleveland and were 7-1.

Then again... I don't care what the math says, if Denver is a bottom 5-6 defense they aren't beating these other teams with top 10 defenses. History says teams like that always choke at some point. Seattle, SF and NO should be above them.
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Old 10-30-2013, 10:57 PM   #65
Count Zarth Count Zarth is offline
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Dalton is absolutely killing it the last 3 weeks.

I wonder if the lights went on. He just hit start #40. What's the magic number, again, BossChief?

http://www.pro-football-reference.co.../gamelog/2013/
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Old 10-30-2013, 10:58 PM   #66
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Quote:
Originally Posted by cdcox View Post
Cincinnati 26%
Denver 20%
Seattle 18%
SF 9%
NO 8%
GB 5%
Indy 4%

etc
Yeah no. The other percentages seem legit, but Cincy at over 25% is crazy.
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Old 10-30-2013, 11:00 PM   #67
Count Zarth Count Zarth is offline
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Originally Posted by AussieChiefsFan View Post
Yeah no. The other percentages seem legit, but Cincy at over 25% is crazy.
If Dalton keeps playing like this, their only real weakness is their running game.

I think they'd beat KC, because their tackles are good enough to neutralize the two biggest reasons we're 8-0.
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Old 10-30-2013, 11:04 PM   #68
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Pam Oliver's Forehead View Post
If Dalton keeps playing like this, their only real weakness is their running game.

I think they'd beat KC, because their tackles are good enough to neutralize the two biggest reasons we're 8-0.
Yup. Losing Taylor Mays hurts them a bit but that roster is loaded.
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Old 10-30-2013, 11:05 PM   #69
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I think Dalton has always been solid. He's taken the Cincinnati Bengals to the playoffs the first two years of his career. They hadn't made the playoffs twice in a row since about the early 80's... and they're about to do it three times. He's always put up solid numbers. Only thing he hasn't done is win a playoff game. But he's done better than most QBs ever do their first two years. He was drafted in the same range Geno was, for instance. Geno's already thrown as many INT as Dalton did his rookie year.

As crazy as this place is about QB's, for some reason he doesn't get much traction on here. I get that he hasn't won a playoff game yet... but I'm a fan. If he gets over the hump like Flacco and Eli did, him and Luck are going at it for the next decade.
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Old 10-30-2013, 11:05 PM   #70
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Pam Oliver's Forehead View Post
If Dalton keeps playing like this, their only real weakness is their running game.

I think they'd beat KC, because their tackles are good enough to neutralize the two biggest reasons we're 8-0.
your blithering & blathering are good.
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Old 10-30-2013, 11:05 PM   #71
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That's fine. The majority of teams we have faced are garbage. Until we have a true test (denver) you can't gauge this teams ability to respond to adversity. We are essentially a mid-major pounding on cupcakes in the mean time.
Look at the schedules for the Broncos, Saints, Seahawks, 49ers, and Patriots. They have all beaten 0 or 1 winning teams (actually, I think the Seahawks have beaten two, if you count their 12-7 thriller over the Panthers in week one).

The fact is that the NFL in general is full of mediocre teams right now. None of these teams have proven that they are better than the Chiefs thus far. Until the Chiefs lose, they're the best team in the NFL.
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Old 10-30-2013, 11:07 PM   #72
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Yup. Losing Taylor Mays hurts them a bit but that roster is loaded.
Really? Why?
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Old 10-30-2013, 11:09 PM   #73
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Old 10-30-2013, 11:11 PM   #74
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Really? Why?
Versatility in base fronts with regards to force calls and coverages.


Taylor's a pretty athletic guy, you can show a bunch of different looks and be confident in his ability to get to the deep 1/2, 1/3, or 1/4 from base fronts/personnel.
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Old 10-30-2013, 11:14 PM   #75
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Originally Posted by Pam Oliver's Forehead View Post
If Dalton keeps playing like this, their only real weakness is their running game.

I think they'd beat KC, because their tackles are good enough to neutralize the two biggest reasons we're 8-0.
Oh ofcourse. There's no question that they're a good team. But 26% is a bit much for any team at this stage, IMO.
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