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Old 10-24-2013, 11:25 PM  
cdcox cdcox is offline
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Math does not respect the Chiefs

Even though we are the only undefeated team, we only have a 6% chance of winning the Super Bowl. Ahead of us are:

Seattle 35%
Denver 16%
Cincinnati 11%
Indy 8%

and tied with SF.

This is according to my nfl-forecast.com software using team efficiency ratings from advancednflstats.com
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Old 10-31-2013, 12:20 AM   #76
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Looking at the team efficiency ratings (percent chance of a team beating an average NFL team on a neutral field), there were several teams that went up around 8 percentage points and several that went down that much. Cincinatti was in the group that went up several points and KC was in the group that went down. So Cincinatti went from 4 percentage points better than the Chiefs to 21 percentage points better. That seems a big swing for one week this late in the season. I wonder of there are some instabilities in the model that contributed to that.
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Old 10-31-2013, 02:06 PM   #77
Von Dumbass Von Dumbass is offline
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More disrespectful math...

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/dvo...8-dvoa-ratings

Quote:

Denver remains on top of this week's Football Outsiders DVOA ratings, and the Broncos still rank as one of the top ten teams in DVOA history despite a bit of a decline in recent weeks. Seattle remains in second place, although the Seahawks' overall rating drops after last night's narrow win over St. Louis. Indianapolis is third, with Carolina a surprising fourth and Cincinnati climbing from 11th to fifth thanks to their 49-9 drubbing of the New York Jets. Chicago climbs two spots to sixth, even on a bye week, although DVOA of course doesn't take into account the effect of injuries (or McCowns) on a team's future peformance. Close behind the Bears are three other NFC contenders, the Saints, 49ers, and Packers, and...

Wait a minute. Where the hell are the 8-0 Kansas City Chiefs?

The shocking answer is tenth place. The Chiefs drop six spots this week from fourth to tenth. Although many power rankings around the Internet will still have Kansas City in first place because they are slaves to ranking teams by win-loss record, it's pretty obvious that the Chiefs are not the best team in the league right now.

The biggest issue is schedule strength. We've pointed this out a few times this year, but the Chiefs' schedule has been phenomenally easy. The Chiefs have played only one opponent this year with an above-average DVOA, the Dallas Cowboys. If we take out the opponent adjustments and look at non-adjusted VOA, the Chiefs actually rank third in the league; the difference between the two ratings is more than 10 percentage points. Each week, as the opponent adjustments in our system become stronger and stronger, the Chiefs see their DVOA rating fall a little bit more. It doesn't help that the Chiefs have been declining a bit, with their three worst games by DVOA coming in the last three weeks. The game against Cleveland comes out as their worst of the year by DVOA, another reason for their big drop this week. In fact, DVOA has Cleveland outplaying the Chiefs this week even if we remove the opponent adjustments. The Browns gained 6.5 yards per play compared to just 4.7 yards per play for Kansas City, but were hurt by third-down efficiency (just 3-for-12) and the fact that they lost their one fumble while the Chiefs recovered theirs. Without opponent adjustments, that comes out to 19.5% DVOA for the Browns and -4.6% DVOA for the Chiefs. With opponent adjustments, it comes out to 28.1% DVOA for the Browns and -23.1% DVOA for the Chiefs.

(By the way, the Chiefs aren't the only team with huge opponent adjustments this season. Denver and San Diego have also had extremely easy schedules this season. Denver's gap between DVOA and VOA is almost as big as Kansas City's, but because the Broncos have been so good, the opponent adjustments don't knock them out of first place in our ratings.)

A couple weeks ago, we looked at where Kansas City stood among the "worst" 6-0 teams of all-time. At that point, the Chiefs weren't particularly low. However, only 14 teams since 1989 have made it to 8-0, and out of those teams, the Chiefs come out near the bottom. (Yes, one team that ranks below them ended up winning the Super Bowl, but remember that team got its best defensive player back from injury right before the playoffs.)




TEAM TOTAL
DVOA
LAST
WEEK
WEIGHTED
DVOA
RANK W-L OFFENSE
DVOA
OFF.
RANK
DEFENSE
DVOA
DEF.
RANK
S.T.
DVOA
S.T.
RANK
1 DEN 42.9% 1 42.5% 1 7-1 37.7% 1 0.5% 18 5.6% 5
2 SEA 32.4% 2 32.2% 2 7-1 4.4% 14 -23.2% 1 4.9% 8
3 IND 26.1% 3 26.2% 3 5-2 17.1% 5 -4.4% 9 4.6% 9
4 CAR 23.5% 6 23.6% 4 4-3 12.8% 9 -9.9% 5 0.8% 14
5 CIN 22.4% 11 22.8% 5 6-2 7.5% 11 -11.0% 4 3.8% 11
6 CHI 20.9% 8 21.2% 6 4-3 17.0% 7 0.3% 17 4.2% 10
7 NO 20.5% 7 20.3% 8 6-1 17.8% 4 -2.9% 12 -0.1% 19
8 SF 20.0% 10 20.3% 7 6-2 17.1% 6 -2.1% 14 0.8% 15
9 GB 19.6% 5 19.6% 9 5-2 28.6% 2 6.1% 26 -2.8% 25
10 KC 17.6% 4 17.3% 10 8-0 -1.6% 16 -12.7% 3 6.5% 3
11 DAL 11.9% 9 12.2% 11 4-4 6.7% 12 2.1% 21 7.3% 2
12 DET 7.7% 14 7.8% 12 5-3 13.3% 8 3.8% 25 -1.8% 24
13 NE 7.2% 12 7.2% 13 6-2 -6.4% 20 -6.2% 6 7.4% 1
14 ARI 2.7% 19 3.2% 14 4-4 -14.6% 26 -17.2% 2 0.1% 18
15 SD 1.3% 13 1.2% 15 4-3 25.0% 3 22.8% 32 -1.0% 23
16 PIT -4.1% 18 -4.0% 16 2-5 -2.7% 17 0.8% 19 -0.6% 20

TEAM TOTAL
DVOA
LAST
WEEK
WEIGHTED
DVOA
RANK W-L OFFENSE
DVOA
OFF.
RANK
DEFENSE
DVOA
DEF.
RANK
S.T.
DVOA
S.T.
RANK
17 BUF -7.0% 17 -7.4% 17 3-5 -9.3% 21 -6.0% 7 -3.7% 27
18 ATL -7.7% 15 -8.0% 18 2-5 8.6% 10 15.6% 30 -0.7% 22
19 BAL -8.6% 23 -8.4% 19 3-4 -14.5% 25 -4.2% 10 1.7% 13
20 TEN -9.6% 21 -10.0% 21 3-4 -3.1% 18 -1.3% 15 -7.9% 29
21 CLE -9.8% 25 -9.7% 20 3-5 -11.4% 23 3.5% 23 5.1% 6
22 MIA -10.0% 22 -10.2% 22 3-4 -6.0% 19 3.3% 22 -0.7% 21
23 NYJ -11.2% 16 -11.3% 23 4-4 -22.1% 31 -5.9% 8 5.0% 7
24 PHI -12.4% 20 -12.2% 24 3-5 6.3% 13 13.5% 29 -5.2% 28
25 MIN -13.6% 27 -13.9% 25 1-6 -10.4% 22 8.9% 28 5.7% 4
26 STL -14.8% 26 -14.4% 26 3-5 -13.6% 24 3.7% 24 2.5% 12
27 TB -17.3% 24 -17.7% 27 0-7 -18.0% 30 -0.3% 16 0.5% 16
28 OAK -22.1% 28 -21.7% 28 3-4 -16.8% 28 1.8% 20 -3.4% 26
29 HOU -23.7% 30 -24.4% 30 2-5 -17.1% 29 -3.1% 11 -9.7% 30
30 WAS -24.2% 29 -24.3% 29 2-5 -0.4% 15 8.0% 27 -15.8% 32
31 NYG -25.3% 31 -24.8% 31 2-6 -16.5% 27 -2.4% 13 -11.2% 31
32 JAC -62.2% 32 -61.8% 32 0-8 -40.5% 32 22.1% 31 0.3% 17



Last edited by Von Dumbass; 10-31-2013 at 02:13 PM..
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Von Dumbass < Tried to steal Andy's chili fries.Von Dumbass < Tried to steal Andy's chili fries.Von Dumbass < Tried to steal Andy's chili fries.Von Dumbass < Tried to steal Andy's chili fries.Von Dumbass < Tried to steal Andy's chili fries.Von Dumbass < Tried to steal Andy's chili fries.Von Dumbass < Tried to steal Andy's chili fries.Von Dumbass < Tried to steal Andy's chili fries.Von Dumbass < Tried to steal Andy's chili fries.Von Dumbass < Tried to steal Andy's chili fries.Von Dumbass < Tried to steal Andy's chili fries.
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Old 10-31-2013, 02:32 PM   #78
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Meth, done correctly, is always right. Everything you know is predicated by meth. Meth proves everything. Meth is the universal language. Voyager message was in meth.

Now, all kinds of shit can happen in between the calculations, as noted in Laz's post. But, in the end, meth is always right. Those who counter post with unsolved shit, meth will figure it out. Meth.

Source: I trip on meth.
I think I correctly edited your post to convey the truth.
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Old 10-31-2013, 02:48 PM   #79
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Quote:
Originally Posted by cdcox View Post
Even though we are the only undefeated team, we only have a 6% chance of winning the Super Bowl. Ahead of us are:

Seattle 35%
Denver 16%
Cincinnati 11%
Indy 8%

and tied with SF.

This is according to my nfl-forecast.com software using team efficiency ratings from advancednflstats.com
Well Super Bowls aren't won in October and all of those teams just might be better than KC. The best team doesn't always have the best record..

The way I see it coming from 2-14 to even be somewhere in that group is pretty F-ING good! Let's just enjoy the ride and see what happens...
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Old 10-31-2013, 02:54 PM   #80
TEX TEX is offline
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Originally Posted by Von Dumbass View Post
And just how many teams with a winning record have the Mighty Denver Manning's played? Now, how many have they beaten again?... 0 + 0 should = 0 every time - but when talking about Denver and math, it rarely does - Commissioners & salary cap included.
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Old 10-31-2013, 03:24 PM   #81
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And just how many teams with a winning record have the Mighty Denver Manning's played? Now, how many have they beaten again?... 0 + 0 should = 0 every time - but when talking about Denver and math, it rarely does - Commissioners & salary cap included.
It's because they score a lot...that's really it.
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Old 10-31-2013, 04:52 PM   #82
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SCOREBOARD
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Old 10-31-2013, 05:00 PM   #83
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All those teams could probably beat us. Math wins.
Thank you for being reasonable!!
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Old 10-31-2013, 05:12 PM   #84
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truth.
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Old 10-31-2013, 05:38 PM   #85
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The whole strength of schedule thing is stupid. This is not a beauty contest or college football where you have to look pretty winning. It is Football. It is hard to win against most every team in the NFL especially on the road. A win is a win.

Does anyone care if we win 2-0 next week or against the Donks? No because we still won!!
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Old 10-31-2013, 05:40 PM   #86
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Well Super Bowls aren't won in October and all of those teams just might be better than KC. The best team doesn't always have the best record..

The way I see it coming from 2-14 to even be somewhere in that group is pretty F-ING good! Let's just enjoy the ride and see what happens...
This!! I hope the pudits are saying this in january- Yep the Superbowl winning chiefs are probably the worst team to win a Superbowl-lol

They didn't beat anyone good.
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Old 10-31-2013, 11:00 PM   #87
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What does math say about Cincy now?
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Old 10-31-2013, 11:00 PM   #88
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This!! I hope the pudits are saying this in january- Yep the Superbowl winning chiefs are probably the worst team to win a Superbowl-lol

They didn't beat anyone good.
if you win a superbowl, you beat good teams to get there. PERIOD.
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Old 10-31-2013, 11:03 PM   #89
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What does math say about Cincy now?
I think he might have to add some more math to include bad teams taking you into OT.
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Old 10-31-2013, 11:13 PM   #90
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Cincy is still OK. You have to weigh in the "Lose on Thursday night on a safety" variable.
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