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Old 11-30-2014, 11:51 AM  
DaFace DaFace is offline
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Week 13 Rooting Guide (and now "other games thread")

I had this brilliant idea to use cdcox's software to put together a guide for who we should be rooting for to best help the Chiefs chances of making the playoffs. I always like stuff like that because it helps to tease out some of the nuances that you probably wouldn't have guessed:



The main one that's interesting to me in that is the Chargers game. Who would have thought that it's actually in our best interests for the Chargers to win today? That's mainly because the Chargers have a BRUTAL schedule to end the season, so it's unlikely they're going to be a threat for the WC spot anyway, so it's better for them to win now and take the Ravens down a notch.

(I should probably add that games not listed have essentially zero impact on our playoff chances.)

I was very proud of the great insight I gleaned from this analysis. That is...until I ran it with the Chiefs/Broncos game in there:



So basically, we can root for other teams all we want, but nothing matters NEAR as much as just taking care of our own business.

Last edited by DaFace; 11-30-2014 at 12:27 PM..
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Old 11-30-2014, 11:55 AM   #2
DaFace DaFace is offline
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Let me know if there's interest in me doing this each week (assuming the Chiefs remain in the hunt). I'm happy to do it, and the impact of other games will increase as we near the finish line, but the story will pretty much always be "Chiefs win = really good, Chiefs lose = really bad" compared to every other game.
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Old 11-30-2014, 11:57 AM   #3
Rausch Rausch is offline
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I hope for Dorsey no longer drafting b/u players and guys to replace guys he wants to cut.

Instead we'll have 2013 dorsey who espoused the importance of BAA...
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Old 11-30-2014, 11:59 AM   #4
Easy 6 Easy 6 is offline
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Pretty cool idea, and you're right that I wouldnt have guessed that San Diego winning was in our best interests.

On a side note, would anyone like to offer up some advice? I'm torn on who to pick for the Giants @ Jags game... on one hand, I feel like NY is clearly the better team, on the other, it seems like Jax is due to put one together at home against a reeling team.
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Old 11-30-2014, 12:00 PM   #5
Otter Otter is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DaFace View Post
Let me know if there's interest in me doing this each week (assuming the Chiefs remain in the hunt). I'm happy to do it, and the impact of other games will increase as we near the finish line, but the story will pretty much always be "Chiefs win = really good, Chiefs lose = really bad" compared to every other game.
If our boys win tonight I love to see it every week but if they lose I think we're back in "maybe next year". Pretty much do or die tonight.
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Old 11-30-2014, 12:01 PM   #6
TimBone TimBone is offline
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If our boys win tonight I love to see it every week but if they lose I think we're back in "maybe next year". Pretty much do or die tonight.
Yep. Tonight is essentially a playoff game for the Chiefs.
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Old 11-30-2014, 12:05 PM   #7
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DaFace View Post

So basically, we can root for other teams all we want, but nothing matters NEAR as much as just taking care of our own business.
I think that, in any other week, this will be much more useful. But, as huge as our game has shaped up (win ties division, loss essentially ends all hope) it overshadows scoreboard watching.

It's pretty awesome though. If you're keeping score, put me down as "keep doing this, and why the hell didn't you start sooner"
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Old 11-30-2014, 12:08 PM   #8
Hog Farmer Hog Farmer is offline
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Now look back at how important that Titan loss was.

I told you so !
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Old 11-30-2014, 12:10 PM   #9
cdcox cdcox is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TimBone View Post
Yep. Tonight is essentially a playoff game for the Chiefs.

Eh, even if we lose, 44% chance at this stage of the season puts us right in the thick of the WC race. It's nothing to sneeze at.

Nice job, DaFace.
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Old 11-30-2014, 12:12 PM   #10
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Old 11-30-2014, 12:13 PM   #11
Dinny Blues Dinny Blues is offline
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Originally Posted by Rausch View Post
I hope for Dorsey no longer drafting b/u players and guys to replace guys he wants to cut.

Instead we'll have 2013 dorsey who espoused the importance of BAA...
FOR CRYIN' OUT LOUD, RAUSCH!!!

Seriously.

I'm gonna come up there and buy you lunch or something. It's time for an intervention kind of thing here.

You're my boy, but for cryin' out loud already.

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Old 11-30-2014, 12:13 PM   #12
Sandy Cheeks Sandy Cheeks is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Easy 6 View Post
Pretty cool idea, and you're right that I wouldnt have guessed that San Diego winning was in our best interests.

On a side note, would anyone like to offer up some advice? I'm torn on who to pick for the Giants @ Jags game... on one hand, I feel like NY is clearly the better team, on the other, it seems like Jax is due to put one together at home against a reeling team.
Hate to see you go wrong here, but if it were my money? I'm picking the NYG to win this one.. by 10+ points.
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Old 11-30-2014, 12:15 PM   #13
DaFace DaFace is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by chefsos View Post
I think that, in any other week, this will be much more useful. But, as huge as our game has shaped up (win ties division, loss essentially ends all hope) it overshadows scoreboard watching.

It's pretty awesome though. If you're keeping score, put me down as "keep doing this, and why the hell didn't you start sooner"
Actually, there's a decent reason for not starting sooner. The earlier you are in the season, the less of an impact any one game is going to have on your chances. There's a bit of "error" in the model in that running a simulation multiple times may result in swings of a point or two, so if the impact from a game is very small, it's essentially meaningless. So basically, you have to get late enough in the season for other games to cause enough of a difference to be meaningful.
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Old 11-30-2014, 12:16 PM   #14
Sandy Cheeks Sandy Cheeks is offline
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Just can't bring myself to pull for SD... can't... I won't. Looks like Ravens about to go up by two scores...
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Old 11-30-2014, 12:17 PM   #15
Dinny Blues Dinny Blues is offline
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On topic.

This is an incredibly groovy thing, DaFace. I vote keep it going.

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