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Old 11-08-2013, 11:08 AM  
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What the Jobs Report really means.

****ing awesome interactive series of charts about unemployment and job growth (nothing new if you follow it close). Worth it to take the 1-2 minutes to click through it.

http://www.bloomberg.com/dataview/20...lly-means.html

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Old 11-08-2013, 11:11 AM   #2
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Old 11-08-2013, 11:13 AM   #3
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And some context on the jobs report
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-1...s-reports.html
Quote:
Today, I want to discuss why the Employment Situation report is the single most over-hyped, over-analyzed, over-emphasized, least-understood economic releases known to mankind. It is also one of least useful economic data points where investors are concerned.

Long-time readers must bear with me, as they have heard this too many times before. But to new readers of mine at Bloomberg View, a few explanatory words are in order:

1) What matters most in the Employment Situation is the overall trend in hiring. Is it continuing what it has been doing for the prior three months? What matters is not whether it is expanding or contracting, but when it reverses that trend.

2) In a labor force of 150 million people, the change in net monthly new workers minus those no longer employed -- essentially what the nonfarm payroll report measures -- is a rounding error, a miniscule one tenth of one percent (i.e., 150k out of 150m).

3) If you use the correct long-term hiring cycles, you can get a pretty good estimate of likely hiring patterns. Since we are now in a post-credit-crisis recovery period, you should expect a mediocre but slowly improving job creation. That is what has been happening.

4) The model that produces the monthly number is part measurement (establishment surveys), part extrapolation (birth-death adjustment). This is then revised, as more and better data comes in later. The overall NFP number is subject to subsequent revision next month and again the following month. The model gets re-benchmarked, is seasonality adjusted, as one-off weather or other events impact (and that impact then attenuates away) the overall NFP series.

5) Like all models, the Bureau of Labor Statistics model is flawed, but not useless (to paraphrase statistician George Box). That is why looking at the overall trend versus any specific data point is so much more valuable.

6) Last, while hiring is a well-known lagging indicator, we can look at the three components that often provide hints as to future hiring activities. I hesitantly call them leading components, but they do help to shed insight each month into whether we are improving or backsliding. They are: Hours Worked, Wages, Temp Help.

Last, let me over oversimplify this for illustration purposes.

Each month, approximately 4 million people leave their jobs, Retirement, layoffs, career changes, whatever. Another 4 million people start new jobs: recent graduates, re-entries to the work force, job changers. What the monthly Employment Situation report measures -- in near real time -- is the net changes between those two numbers. Take the total net number of new hires, subtract the job losses, and you get the marginal change in employment.

Since we begin with such a huge number -- 150 million-plus -- and the monthly net changes are so small (50-200k), the overall change is not especially statistically significant. The net changes amount to about one twentieth and one quarter of a percent. During the height of the financial crisis in 2008-09, the net change was about half a percent (-700k).

Thus, any single 0.1 percent data point needs to be recognized for what it is. It is but one data point in a longer series. And not an especially accurate one initially.

Focus on the longer-term employment trends and be on the lookout for reversals, rather than any given monthly data point.
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Old 11-08-2013, 11:37 AM   #4
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We don't need to watch one second of this, because Pelosi already told us in 2005 that W's economy (5% unemployment, record home prices, high stock market) was "the worst since the Great Depression" for workers.


The Democrats have already blown their load on hyperbole so perhaps it is they who should be watching videos on how this all works.
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Old 11-08-2013, 11:53 AM   #5
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Originally Posted by Prison Bitch View Post
We don't need to watch one second of this, because Pelosi already told us in 2005 that W's economy (5% unemployment, record home prices, high stock market) was "the worst since the Great Depression" for workers.


The Democrats have already blown their load on hyperbole so perhaps it is they who should be watching videos on how this all works.
JFC quit being a lazy piece of shit. It's 8 clicks for ****'s sake.

Educate yourself about something before opening your mouth dipshit.
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Old 11-08-2013, 12:02 PM   #6
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Oh yes. The jobs report means a hell of a lot to me and the millions my age either under employed or not even bothering to work.

If I'm lucky I'll convince the right McDonald's manager to hire me! Yay making decent grades in college!

What a ****ing joke. All of these jobs that have been created or whatever will evaporate in ten years anyway once automation becomes remarkably cheaper than flesh and blood workers.
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Old 11-08-2013, 12:06 PM   #7
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Discuss Thrower View Post
Oh yes. The jobs report means a hell of a lot to me and the millions my age either under employed or not even bothering to work.

If I'm lucky I'll convince the right McDonald's manager to hire me! Yay making decent grades in college!

What a ****ing joke. All of these jobs that have been created or whatever will evaporate in ten years anyway once automation becomes remarkably cheaper than flesh and blood workers.
Go get a job in education or health services then. Work that shitty McD's job through vocational school or college and take advantage of financial aid if you need to. In short, get off of your lazy ass and do something.
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Old 11-08-2013, 12:11 PM   #8
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we are nearing the holiday season where thousands of workers are hired......until after the holidays
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Old 11-08-2013, 01:27 PM   #9
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Quote:
Originally Posted by King_Chief_Fan View Post
we are nearing the holiday season where thousands of workers are hired......until after the holidays
BLS seasonally adjusts the data for that stuff.
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Old 11-08-2013, 01:29 PM   #10
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Discuss Thrower View Post
Oh yes. The jobs report means a hell of a lot to me and the millions my age either under employed or not even bothering to work. .

And yet, your generation just went out last fall and re-upped for 4 more years of Obama.
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Old 11-08-2013, 01:33 PM   #11
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And yet, your generation just went out last fall and re-upped for 4 more years of Obama.
I voted for Barr in 08 and unwillingly voted Romney last year in Missouri.

tl;dr: Obama is not my president.
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Old 11-08-2013, 01:34 PM   #12
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Fair enough, but he's absolutely your generation's President.
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Old 11-08-2013, 01:41 PM   #13
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Originally Posted by Discuss Thrower View Post
I voted for Barr in 08 and unwillingly voted Romney last year in Missouri.

tl;dr: Obama is not my president.
Are you a citizen of the United States?
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Old 11-08-2013, 02:12 PM   #14
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Discuss Thrower View Post
I voted for Barr in 08 and unwillingly voted Romney last year in Missouri.

tl;dr: Obama is not my president.
Did you wash your hands afterward at least?
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Old 11-08-2013, 02:28 PM   #15
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...and Zionist Jews is my " Leader "...
Check this out:

http://www.jewsnotzionists.org/differencejudzion.html
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