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Old 11-16-2013, 02:24 PM  
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Albert Breer article on paying qbs.

DJ, myself a few others had a conversation about this the other day, now Breer talking about it. He must read CP. Anyway, discuss


Albert Breer.

It isn't far-fetched to think Jay Cutler's departure from last Sunday's game against Detroit could lead to a larger-scale exodus from Chicago for the mercurial quarterback.


As it stands, he's had eight starts for new coach Marc Trestman, and a high ankle sprain has landed him in a walking boot. The coach said that Cutler is still the Bears' quarterback. For how much longer is the question.

Chicago isn't alone here.

The salary cap has stayed relatively flat the past three years, and while the middle class has been squeezed and the league has gotten younger across the board, the price tag on quarterbacks has continued to rise. That has turned up the pressure on teams to get it right at the game's most important position.

The decision of whether or not to double down on a passer, which has always been a high-stakes game, is now marked by the economic reality of one player eating up an average of $20 million per year while the cap hovers just above $120 million.

"Any player you sign, no matter how much it's for, you wanna be right. But for that much money, you really have to be," an AFC general manager said. "Say you run a 3-4. Well, now, that's harder, because you need more blue-chippers -- a lockdown corner, pass-rushers. A lot of 3-4s are complicated, so you might need veterans, and that costs more. That's where it starts to hurt, where you want to pay all those vets. And then on the flip side, you pay the quarterback all that money, it's not smart to not have weapons."

Three teams have major calls to make this offseason about their quarterbacks:

Chicago Bears
The player: Cutler
The situation: The contract extension he signed after being traded to Chicago expires in February.
The landscape: GM Phil Emery has been largely mum, but this is clearly a franchise-altering situation. Cutler turns 31 in April, and his potential has outweighed his production as a Bear. Going with a quarterback of his age and experience would signal that Chicago is approaching team-building one way. Starting over with a younger player, on the other hand, could guide larger-scale changes with the other older players on the roster. The franchise tag could be an option.

Cincinnati Bengals
The player: Andy Dalton
The situation: The Bengals have a handful of young players to pay. Dalton is eligible to be extended for the first time this offseason, with 2014 being a contract year.
The landscape: Early in the season, there was internal doubt about Dalton being the long-term answer. That dissipated in October when Dalton showed improvement, but he's struggled since. "At the end of the day, the issue is consistency," a Bengals source said. Not insignificant: Getting Dalton done early would help Cincinnati manage its financials, with a handful of young players due to get deals soon.

San Francisco 49ers
The player: Colin Kaepernick
The situation: Like Dalton, Kaepernick was a second-round draft pick in 2011, meaning he's a) eligible for a new deal this offseason and b) will be going into a contract year.
The landscape: There was no surer sign of the Niners' commitment to Kaepernick than their decision to trade away Alex Smith in the offseason, a move that came after the precocious quarterback's epic playoff run. Since then, Kaepernick has struggled to evolve away from an option-heavy offense. The Niners' plan remains to negotiate with him this offseason, but his play has affected his market value to some degree, and that could make .

Forthcoming decisions on these quarterbacks will help shape what's next for each team. The Bears, sans Cutler, could be in for retooling. The Bengals, if Dalton is allowed to go into his contract year, could take a flier on another QB in the draft.

Of course, if those teams go the other way and lock up their quarterbacks, budgetary considerations will need to be made.

The Indianapolis Colts of Peyton Manning's prime are a good example. Part of the benefit of hiring Tony Dungy and playing the relatively simple Tampa 2 defense (Manning's first mega-contract came after Dungy's second year) was making it easier organizationally to find defensive players who could play right away. Indianapolis poured draft picks and money into Manning's offensive weaponry while constructing a defense built to play with leads around smaller, quicker and mostly cheaper players. The Colts wound up capturing a championship and posting at least 12 wins in seven straight seasons.

Because Manning ate up a large chunk of the cap, Indianapolis could only afford to pay a smaller core of players at the top of the market, so drafting and developing around that core was a point of emphasis.

"The first part of it is that you can't win in this league without a franchise quarterback that the team completely believes in," one NFC GM said. "The second part (of paying him) is you have to have a staff that's willing to play with younger players, and develop young players, and commit to being good teams. When you have that quarterback, the days of signing the vets to come in because they know what they're doing, unless they take less, don't exist anymore."

Baltimore got younger in key spots this offseason, as did Atlanta, while Green Bay has always been draft-centric, so the difference isn't as stark there. In all three locales, big paydays for franchise quarterbacks coincided with the departures of veterans, and likely will force tough decisions down the road, as well.

Pulling the trigger on such a deal in the first place isn't easy. In so many ways, the entire building hitches itself to that player as a result. Taking into account the fallout in other areas of the roster, figuring out where to draw the line can often come down to how confident management is that the quarterback is capable of both winning and carrying the team.

"I just think, with a guy you're around every day, at practice, in the meeting rooms, in the offseason, you know," the AFC GM said. "You know if that has a chance, even if he hasn't made it there yet. So it comes down to your own evaluation. And then it becomes, 'As opposed to what?' If he's not there, you can always draft a guy, but that's easier said than done."

So on one hand, you sell out for the player. On the other, you risk winding up with a guy who makes you the equivalent of a perennial 50-win team in the NBA: just good enough to make you believe you're close while perhaps preventing you from making some of the more seismic changes needed to reach the ultimate goal.

"The way I see it, the guy's gotta be able to bring people along with him, carry guys and make them better," the NFC GM said. "He's gonna be the guy who's playing with that rookie receiver or the undrafted tight end. He knows that, making that money, he can't bitch about not having players. And you look for him to have strong, strong leadership skills."

Soon enough, we'll find out if the Bears, Bengals and Niners feel like their teams have that intangible quality. And as they know, it's one decision they have to get right.
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Old 11-17-2013, 11:29 AM   #46
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We are just entering a 7 game stretch where we will face a lot of playoff caliber teams that Alex will need to put points up on to win.

It should be interesting to see how well he plays down the stretch in comparison to the alternatives that were out there this past offseason.
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Old 11-17-2013, 11:32 AM   #47
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Originally Posted by O.city View Post
It's just an interesting talking point about team building.

Like someone else brought up, if Alex smith had a flacco type run this year and we win a sb, would you give him 20mil$?

I sure wouldn't.
And my point is that until a team lets a SB winning QB walk rather than overpay them, every team is still effectively locked into the franchise QB model of building a franchise. And you would need one of those very top QBs (Brady, P. Manning, Brees, Rogers) to have a good chance of winning more than one title in that mode.

In the franchise mode team building works like this:

Stage 1. Pre-franchise mode You spread your $ around and have good talent at many positions. Team gets better fast. The prefranchise mode lasts until a huge contract is given to the starting QB, which could be the result of the QB being really good, winning the SB, or overpaying a B-level QB (e.g., Romo).

Stage 2. Post-franchise mode A huge fraction of your cap is tied up in your QB and you have to let a lot of the good supporting talent walk. The QB has to be a huge difference maker to stay on top. Most QB's aren't that good and the huge contract to the starting QB marks the decline of that team.

Would a team ever have enough guts to reload with a young cheap QB or a journeyman at the end of stage 1? I will believe it when I see it.
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Old 11-17-2013, 11:34 AM   #48
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Actually, that's exactly what this article is discussing. The merits of winning with "overpaid b level guys" or going to battle with guys like Alex Smith that won't offer you as much, but are cheaper.
If the Chiefs win a SB, Alex Smith will be come an overpaid b level guy, or he will walk.
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Old 11-17-2013, 11:43 AM   #49
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One thing that seems apparent as it relates to this article.

Andy Dalton is playing his way out of Cinncinatti.
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Old 11-17-2013, 11:43 AM   #50
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With the cap scheduled to go up significantly over the next decade, the trend of paying quarterbacks top dollar will not only continue, it will likely escalate.
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Old 11-17-2013, 11:43 AM   #51
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The thing about Eli is that he has shown that he can put a team on his shoulders, and has come up big in the clutch more consistently than any other QB.

I can't put him on the same level as the elite guys, but I also won't dismiss his history and drop him to a level equal to Flacco.
He has, but he's also just so inconsistent that it's tough.
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Old 11-17-2013, 11:44 AM   #52
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With the cap scheduled to go up significantly over the next decade, the trend of paying quarterbacks top dollar will not only continue, it will likely escalate.
And that's till doesn't make it necessarily right.
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Old 11-17-2013, 11:45 AM   #53
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And my point is that until a team lets a SB winning QB walk rather than overpay them, every team is still effectively locked into the franchise QB model of building a franchise. And you would need one of those very top QBs (Brady, P. Manning, Brees, Rogers) to have a good chance of winning more than one title in that mode.

In the franchise mode team building works like this:

Stage 1. Pre-franchise mode You spread your $ around and have good talent at many positions. Team gets better fast. The prefranchise mode lasts until a huge contract is given to the starting QB, which could be the result of the QB being really good, winning the SB, or overpaying a B-level QB (e.g., Romo).

Stage 2. Post-franchise mode A huge fraction of your cap is tied up in your QB and you have to let a lot of the good supporting talent walk. The QB has to be a huge difference maker to stay on top. Most QB's aren't that good and the huge contract to the starting QB marks the decline of that team.

Would a team ever have enough guts to reload with a young cheap QB or a journeyman at the end of stage 1? I will believe it when I see it.
Great post.

Yeah it's definitely interesting to see what happens.
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Old 11-17-2013, 12:28 PM   #54
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They sure as **** aren't AJ Green or CJ quality players, thus they are in the next tier.

I think Bowe is just as good or better than either of them...if given a similar QB situation.
no no no,in what world is Bowe as good as those guys lol. Hasn't shown he can go up and grab anything in the vicinity consistently,and his hands aren't as strong. Hes Terrell Owens after Terrell Owens was considered washed up playing in Cincinatti. Good player still but b level talent I cant even consider him that,ive seen him miss too many big plays he could've made. Hes the Alex Smith of WR's lol

And if not for two muffed punts Alex Smith is possibly a superbowl winning qb,so you have to at least acknowledge theres living proof this formula absolutely can work. And the fact the 49ers could plug Kaepernick in and still win after Alex went down proves the original point of this topic even more doesn't it lol.


Eli shouldn't have got that big contract because the defense did a lot of heavy lifting to get him that superbowl.

And if Alex Smith somehow managed to get a superbowl this year,no way you pay him 20mil. Its not hard to see whether the qb carried the team on his back through the season and if he can lead a shit offense to the promise land. I absolutely don't think ALex can do that and hopefully the rest of the league would be smart enough to know that and not offer 20 mil lol. Only Brees,Manning,Rodgers and Brady I would say deserve the 20 mil tag.Because I believe they can pick up the slack of a lesser offensive unit. Your at least in the hunt as long as the d isn't absolute shit.

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Old 11-17-2013, 12:34 PM   #55
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and btw,no Alex Smith of this year outside of the record its hard to say hes lived up to the 11 mil contract. But the record is the record lol. The alex Smith that should've played in the superbowl in san fran though? that guy is definitely worth 11 mil. Only reason im patient is because im not as high on his offensive line,play calling and weapons as some of you are apparently,who believe Bowe is Anquan Bolden level.
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Old 11-17-2013, 12:42 PM   #56
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Good lord, where did this dipshit come from?
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Old 11-17-2013, 01:04 PM   #57
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Anquan Boldin is a "b" receiver, as was every other skill position player from that offense.

While I wouldn't ever argue that Flacco is at the same level as the elite guys, he proved he could be a superbowl MVP with "b talent" around him on offense.

Right now, Alex Smuth is surrounded by "b level talent" and isn't doing anything confidence inspiring and is getting 11+ million this year.
"B's" really?

TE Dennis Pitta = 7 TD's, 700 yds
WR Torry Smith = 9 TD's, 864 yscm
RB Ray Rice = 10 TD's, 1621 yscm
WR Boldin = 4 TD's, 921 yds





Boldin was low in the tank, but I don't thnk any of those players are "B" talent. those are good stats.

Smith does not have that kind of talent in skills positions and he certainly doesn't have an OL like Flacco's. There are guys -- like Avery, who is playing well, but he's no Torry Smith or Boldin. Jamaal is no contest against Rice, but Rice had an OL blocking for him and Jamaal rarely has.
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Old 11-17-2013, 01:19 PM   #58
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What Boldin showed is that if you put the ball in his area code, he can make plays.

Flacco used that to his advantage, and without Boldin, he would likely be getting paid a shit ton less.

Personally, there's no way in hell I'd have given him that money, and I think he's well on his way to proving it was a bad investment.
Couldn't agree more. People forget Flacco's name and performance 2/3rds of the way through the season last year was 'MUDD' UNTIL Flacco got Cam fired and then it turned around making Flacco and Harbaugh look like genius's. But Flacco has finally showed his limitations for sure now.
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Old 11-17-2013, 01:29 PM   #59
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You think Torrey Smith and Anquan Boldin is in the same group as Calvin Johnson, Larry Fitzgerald and AJ Green?

Hahahahahahaha

Dennis Pitta in the same group as Jimmy Graham?

I mean, Ray Rice is in the conversation of being in the a group of backs, but that's debatable because he doesn't offer the same upside as Adrian Peterson.

Like I said...
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Old 11-17-2013, 01:31 PM   #60
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I mean, Ray Rice is in the conversation of being in the a group of backs, but that's debatable because he doesn't offer the same upside as Adrian Peterson.

Like I said...
He's not. He's injured and it's a hip injury.

And he's not recovering.

And he's feeling stingers and extreme pain.

He's done...
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