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Old 12-10-2013, 12:51 PM  
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Comparing Private Job Creation Now & Then . . .

http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2013/12...-job-creation/
@TBPInvictus here:

David Rosenberg made a point in his note Monday that I don’t think went quite far enough, or at least needs a bit more color:



Rosie then showed the chart below (the Haver Analytics version of it, anyway), which he dubbed “Employment Less Financials in Private Sector.” In St. Louis Fred-speak, that would be USPRIV – USFIRE:



We can probably agree with Dave that many jobs of the last cycle, particularly in finance, were indeed due to “obvious unsustainable credit bubble.”

Now, all that said, here are some numbers out of the above chart:
Trough was July 2003 at 100,230.
Subsequent peak was Jan 2008 at 107,393.
That’s an annualized growth rate, by my calculations, of 1.52%.

Subsequent trough was February 2010 at 99,126
We’re at the (ongoing) peak at 107,003
That’s an annualized growth rate of 2.02%
Point here being that we are currently running at a 2.02% more naturally, if you will, than the 1.52% rate which itself was inflated by artificial, credit-bubble-induced hiring, mostly in the finance sector. And we are indeed within striking distance of eclipsing the January 2008 high within the next couple of months.
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Old 12-10-2013, 02:50 PM   #2
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Encouraging data, if valid. Looking back at 4 year trends it makes me wonder if 2014 will peak and start the dip again?
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Old 12-10-2013, 03:18 PM   #3
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Dallas Chief View Post
Encouraging data, if valid. Looking back at 4 year trends it makes me wonder if 2014 will peak and start the dip again?
I don't think we'll see a dip in employment in 2014. We may see a dip in profitability due to their record highs, but corps have been running lean on the employment side since 2008 so employment has a rosier outlook than profitability.
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Old 12-10-2013, 03:30 PM   #4
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Fascinating data, I always assumed the Clinton boom was based in the Internet bubble and that Bush and then Obama were battling uphill to be compared to that.


I did read however that native born Americans haven't recouped any job losses and any gains have all gone to foreign borns. What sayeth The Card?
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Old 12-10-2013, 03:32 PM   #5
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Originally Posted by Prison Bitch View Post
Fascinating data, I always assumed the Clinton boom was based in the Internet bubble and that Bush and then Obama were battling uphill to be compared to that.


I did read however that native born Americans have recouped any job losses and any gains have all gone to foreign borns. What sayeth The Card?
You're going to need a link for that claim because no one breaks out job data like that (that I'm aware of).
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Old 12-10-2013, 04:18 PM   #6
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Raw figures like this are misleading as hell.

So with a population that is 15 million MORE than it was 5 years ago, we have ALMOST as many people working. Which of course means a LOWER % of working Americans.

To be AT ALL USEFUL the numbers need to be broken down by % of "working age" Americans.
I think that number is ~5 million more than it was 5 years ago.

Numbers don't look so rosy now...
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Old 12-10-2013, 04:25 PM   #7
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Quote:
Originally Posted by AustinChief View Post
Raw figures like this are misleading as hell.

So with a population that is 15 million MORE than it was 5 years ago, we have ALMOST as many people working. Which of course means a LOWER % of working Americans.

To be AT ALL USEFUL the numbers need to be broken down by % of "working age" Americans.
I think that number is ~5 million more than it was 5 years ago.

Numbers don't look so rosy now...
Geez, Austin, those new people are like in preschool right now.
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Old 12-10-2013, 04:34 PM   #8
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c'mon coz...

he said working age, not preschool...

try to keep up...
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