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Old 12-13-2013, 02:02 AM  
Taco John Taco John is offline
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An interesting hole in evolutionary theory (as we understand it)

I came across this in my travels tonight, and thought it might make for an eye-brow raiser...

The long and short of it - some researchers decided to reverse apply Moore's Law to human biology. Using their Moore's Law-based computations, they first applied it to modern computers, and came up with the right answer - that microchips showed up right around the 1960's.

They then took the same computations and applied it to biological complexity (which, of course, humans are the pinnacle of as we know it). The results suggest that life began 5 billion years before the Earth even existed...



What it really means, who knows... The researchers who ran the computations refused to call it a theory and instead label it a "thought excersize" (the cowards!). In any case, it's pretty damned interesting.

The article can be read here:
http://phys.org/news/2013-04-law-life-began-earth.html
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Old 12-13-2013, 10:36 AM   #16
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Originally Posted by Taco John View Post
Always such imaginative people here. Moore's law has shown to cross barriers to other realms. http://www.nature.com/news/moore-s-l...puters-1.12548

Whether it's a universal principle is up for debate, but there are plenty of scientists who entertain the idea...
The 2 ton purple gorilla in the room is the fact that genomic complexity has not shown anything close to a nice exponential increase. Their functional non-redundant genome points are so laughably small and cherry-picked that the entire graph should be thrown in the garbage.

Here's a good explanation:

Quote:

[...]

Well, the first highly questionable statement there is that “the core of the macroevolutionary process ... is the increase of functional complexity of organisms.” No, it isn’t. Stephen Gould long ago persuasively argued that there is no necessary direction of increased complexity throughout evolution. The only reason why complexity historically follows simplicity is because life had to start simple, so it only had “more complex” as a direction of (stochastic, not directed) movement. It’s a so-called “left wall” effect: if you start walking (randomly, even) from near a wall, the place you end up is away from the wall. And of course, as Gould again pointed out, life on earth was (relatively) simple and bacterial for a long, long time — and none the worse for it either. Moreover, the most complex organism on earth — us — though very successful in certain respects, is actually a member of a very small and often struggling group of large brained social animals. Measured by criteria such as biomass, bacteria still beat the crap out of us “superior” beings.

But the real problems begin for the Sharov and Gordon paper when they finally get to the business at hand: correlating genomic complexity with time of origin of the respective organisms, and then extrapolating back in time. [As a commenter on my Twitter stream pointed out, they could just as “reasonably” have extrapolated into the far future, arriving at the conclusion that the entire universe will eventually be made of DNA...]

The authors realize that simple genome length won’t cut it, because what matters is functional complexity, and there are some portions of the genomes of various organisms that are redundant and possibly without function. Nonetheless, they end up plotting the log-10 of genome size against time, which is how they arrive at the figure of 9.7 billion years ago for the origin of life. As PZ Myers quickly pointed out, however, even if we accept the procedure at face value, they simply cherry picked the data: plenty of organisms that don’t show up on the graph (plants and fungi, for instance) would completely scramble the results. Make no mistake about it: this is a fatal blow to the entire enterprise, and one that the authors ought to have thought about well before posting the paper.

The second fundamental problem, of course, is with Moore’s law itself: as I mentioned at the beginning, it was derived empirically from a very specific data set having to do with a particular type of human technology. There is no reason on earth (or beyond it!) to assume that the “law” (actually, a limited empirical generalization) should hold for measures such as genomic complexity, or for natural phenomena that are not of human origin.

Lastly (third fatal blow), the problem is with the procedure of statistical extrapolation itself. It’s very useful, of course, but it needs to be deployed with much caution. As anyone taking a Stat 101 course soon learns, data interpolation (i.e., curve fitting within the available range of data points) is a very effective and reliable technique to predict “missing” data; but extrapolation (i.e., extension of the curve fitting beyond the available data range) is a tricky business. Unless one is very confident that whatever mechanism underlies the relationship among the data actually holds regardless of range, one is on very shaky ground. Take, for instance, the most common curve fitting exercise in biology: the one relating the rate of growth of a population to time. If we start, say, a culture of bacteria with fresh growth medium, the colony will initially follow an exponential curve; if we extrapolate this curve a bit into the future, though, we arrive at the nonsensical prediction that the colony will soon take over the entire planet. It doesn’t. Why not? Because resources are limited and because there is going to be competition to acquire them from other species. Which is why many biological populations actually follow a logistic growth curve: they start out exponentially, then begin to slow down, and eventually reach an equilibrium determined by environmental constraints (the so-called carrying capacity in ecology). More complex dynamics (some actually leading to extinction) are possible too, but the point is that an ecologist who took seriously the initial exponential growth and used it for predictions in a scientific paper would be a fool to be laughed out of court immediately. Sharov and Gordon give us no reason to take their extrapolation backwards in time any more seriously.

More: http://rationallyspeaking.blogspot.c...-study-in.html
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Old 12-13-2013, 10:37 AM   #17
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Originally Posted by Sannyasi View Post
Considering Moore's Law doesn't even work for computers anymore, I would be skeptical about trying to apply it to other fields.
Actually, Moore's law may have a saving grace in the Bose-Einstein Condensate, which IBM says they've been able to produce at room temperatures, potentially leading to quantum computers.
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Old 12-13-2013, 11:31 AM   #18
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I'll add that the definition of the beginning of life as being a single nucleotide, is hilarious and demonstrates a complete ignorance of biology.
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Old 12-13-2013, 12:00 PM   #19
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I'll add that the definition of the beginning of life as being a single nucleotide, is hilarious and demonstrates complete ignorance.
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Old 12-13-2013, 12:05 PM   #20
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Jesus Christ, what an idiot.
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Old 12-13-2013, 12:22 PM   #21
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Originally Posted by 'Hamas' Jenkins View Post
Jesus Christ, what an idiot.
**** off stupid pissant. Our evolutionary theory doesn't account for this at all, and it's interesting speculation. Jesus Christ you ****ing liberal assholes are unsufferable. WHy is that? What are liberal assholes so unsufferable? It's a universal thing. There are precious few internet liberals who are anything short of raging assholes.
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Old 12-13-2013, 02:32 PM   #22
'Hamas' Jenkins 'Hamas' Jenkins is offline
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Originally Posted by Taco John View Post
**** off stupid pissant. Our evolutionary theory doesn't account for this at all, and it's interesting speculation. Jesus Christ you ****ing liberal assholes are unsufferable. WHy is that? What are liberal assholes so unsufferable? It's a universal thing. There are precious few internet liberals who are anything short of raging assholes.


This has no relevance to evolutionary theory in the least. This is why we're all laughing at you. It has nothing to do with being liberal; it has everything to do with your complete lack of intelligence and reading comprehension.

TL;DR version:

You're a ****ing moron and people laugh at morons.
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Old 12-13-2013, 03:02 PM   #23
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Taco John View Post
**** off stupid pissant. Our evolutionary theory doesn't account for this at all, and it's interesting speculation. Jesus Christ you ****ing liberal assholes are unsufferable. WHy is that? What are liberal assholes so unsufferable? It's a universal thing. There are precious few internet liberals who are anything short of raging assholes.
Doesn't account for WHAT, exactly? A theory has to have a level of specificity that it can make predictions that are testable and repeatable. Like tempering a sword, theories get sharper and more and more accurate over time through this process.

What you just posted is more like a bunch of guys speculating in a slightly different way (and maybe they feel this way is more objective and useful) that life is (always has been?) too complex to have evolved. Biologists have been knocking down the "complexity" argument for 100s of years in ways that ARE testable and have made astoundingly accurate predictions about the kinds of fossils we will probably find where and how deep... The kinds of methods we can use to create vaccines... The way in which we do medial testing on other species that are closer to us in evolutionary terms. The list goes on and on and on.

Thinking that evolution MIGHT be misunderstood in some major way is legit and lots and lots of people are trying to understand the mechanisms better and better every day. But thinking that evolution just didn't happen, at this point, is foolishly naive at best and dangerously ignorant at worst.
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Old 12-13-2013, 03:07 PM   #24
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Just read some of the other responses. I'll just go ahead and bow out then... You guys have this one handled.
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Old 12-13-2013, 03:08 PM   #25
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uh, genome size =/= complexity. you're ignoring epigenetic effect, polyploid species, and other genetic complexities that render this COMPLETELY redundant.
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Old 12-13-2013, 03:37 PM   #26
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Originally Posted by Taco John View Post
**** off stupid pissant. Our evolutionary theory doesn't account for this at all, and it's interesting speculation. Jesus Christ you ****ing liberal assholes are unsufferable. WHy is that? What are liberal assholes so unsufferable? It's a universal thing. There are precious few internet liberals who are anything short of raging assholes.
Dude, what's your problem? I told you how long it would take to make a ping pong tables using strictly bananas which I extrapolated from your findings.

If that doesn't scream I love you, well, I just don't know what will.
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Old 12-13-2013, 04:15 PM   #27
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we crossed an elephant with a corn plant and then like some shit happened and we got like I dunno. 2 of them. Wild shit happens in genetics.
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Old 12-13-2013, 04:20 PM   #28
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They didn't call it a theory because it isn't a theory. There is no scientific basis to it. It was nothing more than a fun little game they were playing. That's why they called it a thought exercise, not a theory.

There is no relationship between Moore's Law and evolutionary biology. Moore's Law simply states that the number of transistors on integrated circuits approximately doubles every two years. What does that have to do with evolutionary biology? It's like measuring how long it takes to build a ping pong table and deciding that that knowledge tells you something about the growth rate of bananas.

Funny, but don't give them any new ideas.
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Old 12-13-2013, 04:24 PM   #29
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Dude, what's your problem? I told you how long it would take to make a ping pong tables using strictly bananas which I extrapolated from your findings.

If that doesn't scream I love you, well, I just don't know what will.
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Old 12-13-2013, 04:36 PM   #30
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Originally Posted by Taco John View Post
**** off stupid pissant. Our evolutionary theory doesn't account for this at all, and it's interesting speculation. Jesus Christ you ****ing liberal assholes are unsufferable. WHy is that? What are liberal assholes so unsufferable? It's a universal thing. There are precious few internet liberals who are anything short of raging assholes.
Yep its good we have calm, well grounded, non-raging assholes like you to look up to in that regard. Thank you for your service.
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High Tech is Sorcery and the people who are really powerful are literally telling people to commit crimes using the psychic interspace created by the WWW and Wireless. They are controlling peoples actions like drones . The two things are deeply intertwined. The more man's brain interfaces with machines the creepier it gets. They use brains separate from a human body in a supercomputer and you have The Image of the Beast. The military has been doing this since the 50s
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