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Old 12-19-2013, 12:45 PM  
duncan_idaho duncan_idaho is offline
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2014 Royals Repository

With my 6,000th post on ChiefsPlanet (it only took me 12 years to get here), I bring you: The 2014 Kansas City Royals Repository.

To be discussed here: All things Royals, as they attempt to post another winning season and make it back to the playoffs for the first time since 1985.

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Duncan's Top 20 Royals Prospects
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Old 02-03-2014, 02:57 PM   #871
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Optimism running high, as it always does in February.
Ah, the reality of May.

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Old 02-03-2014, 02:59 PM   #872
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Old 02-03-2014, 03:00 PM   #873
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Ah, the reality of May.

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No way May repeats itself, can it? Please say no.
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Old 02-03-2014, 03:09 PM   #874
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That's pretty neat.
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Old 02-03-2014, 03:16 PM   #875
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Typical. Glass is too cheap to finish. Better get Jackson County to step up.
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Old 02-03-2014, 03:18 PM   #876
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Check out this new billboard off I-35 in downtown KC:

https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?f...type=1&theater
Pretty cool.
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Old 02-03-2014, 04:59 PM   #877
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Just posted this on the Royals scout board, and too much research was involved to not share.

Background: Discussion of catching up to Detroit. Why do the Royals have a better shot than you might think?

This is the likely lineup:

Austin Jackson (career numbers show he is a .280/.340/.420 type leadoff guy... very similar to Aoki)
Ian Kinsler (Career .263/.317/.418 player away from Ballpark in Arlington)
Miguel Cabrera
Victor Martinez (still a stud, but not a huge HR threat anymore and carries injury issues around)
Torii Hunter (also still a stud, but 39 and holding off father time)
Alex Avila (has been below average hitter in 3 of 4 full seasons)
Nick Castellanos (rookie projected to be a .260/15 hitter, likely with slightly below average D at 3B)
Jose Iglesias (hit .303 as a rookie, surprising everyone, based on a .356 BABIP his history suggests is NOT sustainable)
Andy Dirks/Rajai Davis platoon (I actually like this platoon a lot. Very strong duo.)

That lineup is not nearly as deep or as productive as it was a year ago. Just no way they don't take a step back there.

Then you get to the rotation. Which lost a key contributor (Fister) and is replacing him with a talented question mark (Smyly) and still contains the enigmatic Rick Hoche... Porcello. Who showed a good K rate in 2013 for the first time (7.22/9 after a career spent as a 5/9 guy) and still was no more than a solid No. 5 starter.

And finally, the big 3. Scherzer and Sanchez both had the best years of their career in 2013. It's possible they have both figured things out and taken them to the next level, but it's more likely they simply had career seasons and will come back down to their normal performance level a little bit.

Scherzer, for example, posted a .259 BABIP, a figure that is a little more than 20 percent lower than his career BABIP entering the season. The only other peripheral of Scherzer's that showed significant change in performance in 2013 was his Hits Allowed. Looks like a BABIP blip that will probably correct itself this year, to me.

Anibal Sanchez had a very fine year. He reached a record high K rate and saw his HR/FB rate cut nearly in half. All other peripherals basically in line... he just gave up 9 HR instead of the 20 he had the two previous seasons. Normalize the HR, and you're talking about a half point on his ERA right there, and probably a little bit more (as those likely would not all be solo shots).

And then there's Verlander. He wasn't quite himself in 2013 and likely takes a step back towards normal Verlander in 2014... but overall, the Tigers LIKELY get less from these three than was received in 2013.

Great post but I have to ask: are you Rany Jayzerli?
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Old 02-03-2014, 05:14 PM   #878
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Great post but I have to ask: are you Rany Jayzerli?
I wish. I'm not generating doctor-level cash (though I do OK).

One more thing to add:

The Tigers underperformed their Pythag (which basically figures projected wins based on runs scored vs. runs allowed) by 6 wins last year (93 vs. 99).

Just spitballing, I think their lineup produces about 40 fewer runs this years and allows 40 more. Just that small difference drops their Pythag figure 9-10 wins.

Of course, that's all "on paper" and subject to fate/luck/real life, but it definitely makes the idea of catching Detroit for the division seem like a much more reachable goal.
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Old 02-03-2014, 05:27 PM   #879
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Great post but I have to ask: are you Rany Jayzerli?
Duncan is more optimistic than Rany as of late.

http://www.ranyontheroyals.com/



So let it go. Santana will sign elsewhere, the Royals will get a nice draft pick for their troubles, and they’ll have money to spend elsewhere.

That is, if David Glass will spend it. What bothers me the most about ownership spending this winter is that if they don’t spend the savings they got from Guthrie’s reworking of his deal (or if they’ve, in essence, already spent it), then his restructured deal benefits neither the team nor the fans, but only Glass’s pocketbook. Because in two years, the Royals will count the $3.2 million that they now owe Guthrie in 2016 as part of the team’s payroll, and factor it in when they say they can’t spend any more money. But today, when they’re reaping the savings from the restructured deal, they’re keeping quiet.

I think David Glass wants to win. But I think he wants to make money more. Which is kind of sad, because he has plenty of the latter and precious little of the former.


Ouch....
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Old 02-03-2014, 05:27 PM   #880
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Old 02-03-2014, 05:27 PM   #881
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I think Cabrera's body might be wearing out, he was really dragging in the post-season. As great as he is I don't know why he is assured to put out triple crown numbers forever. Pujols fell off the map, hopefully it happens to Cabrera this year. Like you, I found their entire offseason plan to be puzzling.
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Old 02-03-2014, 07:27 PM   #882
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This one would have been more appropriate for this year.....

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Old 02-03-2014, 07:37 PM   #883
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And on a side note, I'm surprised that Bronson Arroyo is still on the market. I figured a team would have snatched him up, since more than likely he'd be cheaper than Ubaldo and Ervin, and he doesn't cost a draft pick.....
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Old 02-04-2014, 01:46 AM   #884
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I think Cabrera's body might be wearing out, he was really dragging in the post-season. As great as he is I don't know why he is assured to put out triple crown numbers forever. Pujols fell off the map, hopefully it happens to Cabrera this year. Like you, I found their entire offseason plan to be puzzling.
He won't fall off this year. He won't put up triple crown numbers, but he'll still be a beast at the plate. But I do see him fading away fast though.
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Old 02-04-2014, 08:40 AM   #885
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Duncan is more optimistic than Rany as of late.

http://www.ranyontheroyals.com/



So let it go. Santana will sign elsewhere, the Royals will get a nice draft pick for their troubles, and they’ll have money to spend elsewhere.

That is, if David Glass will spend it. What bothers me the most about ownership spending this winter is that if they don’t spend the savings they got from Guthrie’s reworking of his deal (or if they’ve, in essence, already spent it), then his restructured deal benefits neither the team nor the fans, but only Glass’s pocketbook. Because in two years, the Royals will count the $3.2 million that they now owe Guthrie in 2016 as part of the team’s payroll, and factor it in when they say they can’t spend any more money. But today, when they’re reaping the savings from the restructured deal, they’re keeping quiet.

I think David Glass wants to win. But I think he wants to make money more. Which is kind of sad, because he has plenty of the latter and precious little of the former.


Ouch....
I think there's more than enough money there to go get Santana or one more player of that salary level... but it's really hard to say with any certainty how much money is a windfall from the increased pay out.

I think it's easy for all of us to "Clay Travis" the money and overlook some costs (since the owners won't disclose them).

I want them to spend more... Dayton Moore has repeatedly said Glass has always approved money that will improve the club, and Glass has always said he will go over budget to get a player that is the final piece.

Would seem to make the Santana signing something that SHOULD happen.

Don't get Rany's hang up on Phil Hughes, though. LIke him, I was a big fan of getting Hughes on a short-term, less risky deal to see if getting away from Yankee stadium could make him a higher performer. But it's not like we're talking about a guy that was a monster away from Yankee Stadium... his career splits show him at 4.10 ERA with 305 Ks in 375 2/3 IP and a whip around 1.25.

Worth taking a gamble on with little to no risk... but three years at $8 million per? When the guy also is not proven to be durable?

At least with Vargas you know he's going to give you 200 IP of around league average pitching.
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