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Old 01-21-2014, 02:09 PM  
Stewie Stewie is offline
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Berkshire Hathaway and Quicken to payout $1 billion for perfect NCAA bracket

Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway and Dan Gilbert's Quicken Loans are partnering to award anyone who fills out a perfect 2014 Men's NCAA Tournament bracket with $1 billion.

The prize will be paid out in 40 annual installments of $25 million. If there's more than one winner they'll have to share. The winner or winners can also take or split up an immediate $500 million lump sum payment.



Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/warre...#ixzz2r4Mfpu1k
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Old 01-21-2014, 10:26 PM   #31
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A couple articles I saw said there's about 9 quintillion ways to fill out a bracket, but if you have "some expertise" you could get it down to around 1 in 128 billion. They didn't define "some expertise," but I'd assume that at least means not picking 16s or 15s (unless vs Mizzou ).

For comparison, the odds of picking the winning number in the MegaMillions lottery is 1:259 million and Powerball is 1:175 million.
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Old 01-22-2014, 01:24 AM   #32
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In 1993 I almost accomplished this. I had EVERY single game correct until the two semis and I managed to get BOTH of those wrong. Our bracket scoring was so heavily weighted to the semis and final game that I ended up coming in 2nd in points.
Yeah, the odds of doing that are so incredibly small that it's very hard to believe this claim.
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Old 01-22-2014, 07:28 AM   #33
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Yeah, the odds of doing that are so incredibly small that it's very hard to believe this claim.
I've always thought that the sheer numbers of people who fill out brackets would enable some to hit it, despite the long odds. I'm actually surprised more haven't.

You know, monkeys, typewriters, Shakespeare...
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Old 01-22-2014, 07:33 AM   #34
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Yeah, the odds of doing that are so incredibly small that it's very hard to believe this claim.

You calling the founder of Chiefsplanet a liar ?
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Old 01-22-2014, 07:39 AM   #35
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Old 01-22-2014, 08:07 AM   #36
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Originally Posted by cosmo20002 View Post
Having read many, many of Austin's posts and assertions on a whole variety of topics, I have come to learn that the dude is never wrong. The only surprising thing about his story is that he missed those two games in the semis.
I don't care if its the pope, on this one I think he's wrong. I do believe that he sincerely believes he accomplished this feat, but the odds of correctly picking the first 60 games are too low to believe without proof.
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Old 01-22-2014, 08:14 AM   #37
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Originally Posted by cosmo20002 View Post
A couple articles I saw said there's about 9 quintillion ways to fill out a bracket, but if you have "some expertise" you could get it down to around 1 in 128 billion. They didn't define "some expertise," but I'd assume that at least means not picking 16s or 15s (unless vs Mizzou ).

For comparison, the odds of picking the winning number in the MegaMillions lottery is 1:259 million and Powerball is 1:175 million.
Yeah, I've tried to quantify the "some expertise" thing too. I think its reasonable to start with assuming the 15's and 16's always lose, and you are just punting the years when they don't. As I said earlier, that is 1 in 36 quadrillion. (If we put the 15's into play, then the odds become silly at that point).

Of those brackets, most of them are probably unreasonable, you'll have a lot of them where all the 14's win for example. Probably well over half, but what percentage of those brackets should we dismiss as "stupid" brackets? If we want to be really, really aggressive we could say that only 1 out of every 10,000 of those possible 36 quadrillion brackets are reasonable. I think thats going too far, but lets throw away 9,999 out of every 10,000 brackets as "stupid" brackets.

We're left with 3.6 trillion possible brackets. We have about 7 billion people on the planet, and about 1/3 of them have internet access. (so about 2 1/3 billion) If every single person on the planet who had the capability of filling out an ESPN bracket did so, after about 771 years (skipping years where a 15 or 16 wins), we'd have only a 50/50 chance of having someone finally fill out a perfect bracket.
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Old 01-22-2014, 08:38 AM   #38
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Originally Posted by alnorth View Post
I don't care if its the pope, on this one I think he's wrong. I do believe that he sincerely believes he accomplished this feat, but the odds of correctly picking the first 60 games are too low to believe without proof.
The "I have come to learn that the dude is never wrong" comment was sarcastic.
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Old 03-04-2014, 05:33 AM   #39
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Old 03-04-2014, 05:58 AM   #40
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Old 03-04-2014, 06:01 AM   #41
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Old 03-04-2014, 09:50 AM   #42
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Old 03-04-2014, 09:57 AM   #43
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Old 03-04-2014, 10:01 AM   #44
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Old 03-04-2014, 04:11 PM   #45
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