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Old 01-21-2014, 06:23 PM  
Deberg_1990 Deberg_1990 is offline
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Warren Buffet will give you 1 billion for filling out a perfect March Madness bracket

You can't win if you don't play.




http://www.latimes.com/business/mone...#axzz2r5963nwi



Even billionaires like Warren Buffett think watching sports is more fun with a little money on the line.
Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway is insuring a Quicken Loans contest that will award $1 billion to anyone who can correctly guess the winners of all 67 games in this spring's NCAA men's basketball tournament.

Buffett said the idea for the contest was his. He said he was talking sports with Quicken Loans founder and Chairman Dan Gilbert in November when he pitched the idea to insure a $1-billion prize for a perfect bracket.


“I said, ‘Here’s a proposition that might be interesting to you,’ ” Buffett said in an interview with The Times. “It heated up three weeks ago. We quoted a price. They worked out the mechanics of it.”

Quicken and Berkshire announced the contest Tuesday. It will be free and will be open to the first 10 million people who sign up online. If one person submits a perfect bracket, he or she will have the option of taking 40 annual payments of $25 million each, or a lump sum of $500 million. Multiple winners would split the money.

“This will be the most fun. Just imagine if there’s one person left [with a perfect bracket] at the last game,” Buffett said. “I will go to that final game with him or her and I’ll have a check in my pocket. ... I think we’ll be rooting for different teams.”

Buffett said one of his insurance companies is writing the $1-billion policy in exchange for a premium, which neither he nor Quicken would disclose.

He said the deal is not that different from many other insurance transactions his companies conduct. He evaluated the potential risk and then set a premium that gives him an edge against the probability of having to make a payout.

“We own Geico. We insure 10% of all the cars in the United States. You evaluate the risk and you charge a premium of what you think is appropriate. Overall, if you’re pricing it right, you should end up with a profit.”

Duke University mathematics professor Ezra Miller estimated that he even a skilled sports handicapper had about a 1 in 1 billion chance of correctly guessing all 67 winners. So if 10 million experts entered the contest, Buffett would need to charge a premium of about $10 million to break even against his expected results.

“If I were Warren Buffett, anything over $10 million, I would probably do it,” Miller said. “If $1 billion were going to ruin me, I wouldn’t. But it’s not going to ruin Warren Buffett.
“If he has to pay out $500 million, sucks to be him. But for the most part it’s pretty much a free $10 million. It all comes down to calculations.”

Buffett said his company is big enough to survive such a hit.
“We’ve lost more money in a given event before,” Buffett said. “Hurricane Katrina probably cost us $3 billion.

“We will put more at risk in a given insurance transaction than anyone in the world. But we have more capital than anyone in the world,” he said.
Buffett said he would be willing to strike a deal with anyone who gets deep into the tournament with a perfect bracket.

“If you get to the Final Four with a perfect bracket, I may buy you out of your position,” Buffett said. “I’ll make you an offer you can’t refuse. I will accept your phone call, you better believe it.”

He said that Quicken will run the contest, but Berkshire will be in charge of security.
“One of the things you do in a contest like this is evaluate the chances of someone gaming it in some way,” Buffett said. “In terms of the security, that will be our job. It’s their contest, but we have to be sure it’s secure. There’s a long history of people trying to make sports bets after the game is over.”
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Old 01-21-2014, 06:25 PM   #2
Brock Brock is offline
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Old 01-21-2014, 06:25 PM   #3
TambaBerry TambaBerry is offline
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im in

edit: If I win I will try to buy the Royals
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Old 01-21-2014, 06:27 PM   #4
Stad Stad is offline
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Where do we sign up? lol
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Old 01-21-2014, 06:28 PM   #5
Sorter Sorter is offline
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I don't believe I've ever done a bracket.
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Old 01-21-2014, 06:29 PM   #6
Buck Buck is offline
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Someone needs to come up with an algorithm that can fill out every possible combo.
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Old 01-21-2014, 06:43 PM   #7
Third Eye Third Eye is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Buck View Post
Someone needs to come up with an algorithm that can fill out every possible combo.
There are WAY more than 10 million possible combinations, which is the number of entries allowed.
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Third Eye has just been standing around suckin' on a big ol' chili dog.Third Eye has just been standing around suckin' on a big ol' chili dog.Third Eye has just been standing around suckin' on a big ol' chili dog.Third Eye has just been standing around suckin' on a big ol' chili dog.Third Eye has just been standing around suckin' on a big ol' chili dog.Third Eye has just been standing around suckin' on a big ol' chili dog.Third Eye has just been standing around suckin' on a big ol' chili dog.Third Eye has just been standing around suckin' on a big ol' chili dog.Third Eye has just been standing around suckin' on a big ol' chili dog.Third Eye has just been standing around suckin' on a big ol' chili dog.Third Eye has just been standing around suckin' on a big ol' chili dog.
 
Old 01-21-2014, 07:00 PM   #8
Dartgod Dartgod is offline
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So that's 2 billion now?
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Old 01-21-2014, 07:11 PM   #9
cosmo20002 cosmo20002 is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Third Eye View Post
There are WAY more than 10 million possible combinations, which is the number of entries allowed.
What if you throw out the possibility of a #16 advancing?
How about taking out 15 beating a 2? I know a 15 has beaten a two (Mizzou ), but its really, really rare.

That should shave off a couple million combos.
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Old 01-21-2014, 07:13 PM   #10
cosmo20002 cosmo20002 is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Sorter View Post
I don't believe I've ever done a bracket.
I don't even know what these words mean.
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Old 01-21-2014, 07:13 PM   #11
Hog Farmer Hog Farmer is online now
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Where's rainman ? He needs to set up a poll for each team combination and let the power of CP pull together.
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