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Old 02-04-2014, 08:36 AM  
Cochise Cochise is offline
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CBO: Obamacare will push 2 million workers out of labor market

Obamacare will push 2 million workers out of labor market: CBO
By Stephen Dinan -The Washington Times
Tuesday, February 4, 2014

Obamacare will push the equivalent of about 2 million workers out of the labor market by 2017 as employees decide either to work fewer hours or drop out altogether, according to the latest estimates Tuesday from the Congressional Budget Office.

That’s a major jump in the nonpartisan budget agency’s projections and it suggests the health care law’s incentives are driving businesses and people to choose government-sponsored benefits rather than work.

“CBO estimates that the ACA will reduce the total number of hours worked, on net, by about 1.5 to 2 percent during the period from 2017 to 2024, almost entirely because workers will choose to supply less labor — given the new taxes and other incentives they will face and the financial benefits some will receive,” CBO analysts wrote in their new economic outlook.

The scorekeepers also said the rollout problems with the Affordable Care Act last year will mean only 6 million people sign up through the state-based exchanges, rather than the 7 million the CBO had originally projected.

But over the long run, Obamacare will eventually catch up and by 2020 only about 30 million people will be without insurance coverage — down from 45 million this year. That will mean about 92 percent of legal U.S. residents without guaranteed access to Medicare will have insurance coverage.
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Old 02-04-2014, 09:31 PM   #16
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Originally Posted by cosmo20002 View Post
This 2 million number seems to be pulled out of thin air, or at least is simply from the writer's interpretation, not the CBO's. Demand for workers determines how many workers there are, and this blurb doesn't say why there would be less demand for workers.
They make this shit up. We know that.
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Old 02-04-2014, 09:35 PM   #17
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Originally Posted by cosmo20002 View Post
This 2 million number seems to be pulled out of thin air, or at least is simply from the writer's interpretation, not the CBO's. Demand for workers determines how many workers there are, and this blurb doesn't say why there would be less demand for workers.
You're partly right. Demand does play a part, but what the worker costs plays a very significant part as well.
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Old 02-04-2014, 09:38 PM   #18
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Originally Posted by patteeu View Post
Supply has an impact too. Apparently the CBO anticipates that many people who qualify for Obamacare subsidies while not working or working part time will find it undesirable to take on full time employment and the loss of those subsidies.
Well if they aren't working, they wouldn't be pushed out of the job market.
The headline:
"Obamacare will push 2 million workers out of labor market: CBO"
is completely inaccurate since the CBO didn't say that.

Then the first sentence says: "Obamacare will push the equivalent of about 2 million workers out of the labor market by 2017."

Article is garbage.
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Old 02-04-2014, 09:54 PM   #19
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Originally Posted by cosmo20002 View Post
Well if they aren't working, they wouldn't be pushed out of the job market.
The headline:
"Obamacare will push 2 million workers out of labor market: CBO"
is completely inaccurate since the CBO didn't say that.

Then the first sentence says: "Obamacare will push the equivalent of about 2 million workers out of the labor market by 2017."

Article is garbage.
It depends on how you look at it, so I won't agree that the headline is "completely inaccurate". It might not be the best headline though.

If you're looking at it on a micro level like you are, I can understand why you think worker, Joe Coachpotato, can't be pushed out of a job he never had in the first place. But if you're looking at it at the macro level, a fraction of the full time workers are pushed out of the workforce by this disincentive to work.
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Old 02-05-2014, 12:01 AM   #20
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Quote:
Originally Posted by patteeu View Post
It depends on how you look at it, so I won't agree that the headline is "completely inaccurate". It might not be the best headline though.

If you're looking at it on a micro level like you are, I can understand why you think worker, Joe Coachpotato, can't be pushed out of a job he never had in the first place. But if you're looking at it at the macro level, a fraction of the full time workers are pushed out of the workforce by this disincentive to work.
There's like 4 threads on this for some reason, so this may have been mentioned in some form already but--the first sentence says "Obamacare will push the equivalent of about 2 million workers out of the labor market by 2017 as employees decide either to work fewer hours or drop out altogether..."

"as employees decide" is a big difference from "as employers decide." According to what's provided here, the jobs aren't going away. So, someone else will be hired. The 2 million number is bogus.

To clarify here--I'm not saying that the actual CBO report is great, good, or bad--I don't feel like I know enough about it to say (it doesn't sound too bad though). What I'm saying is that this article is garbage--heavily slanted partisan garbage--of the type posted far too often on this board.
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Old 02-05-2014, 05:26 AM   #21
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Quote:
Originally Posted by cosmo20002 View Post
There's like 4 threads on this for some reason, so this may have been mentioned in some form already but--the first sentence says "Obamacare will push the equivalent of about 2 million workers out of the labor market by 2017 as employees decide either to work fewer hours or drop out altogether..."

"as employees decide" is a big difference from "as employers decide." According to what's provided here, the jobs aren't going away. So, someone else will be hired. The 2 million number is bogus.

To clarify here--I'm not saying that the actual CBO report is great, good, or bad--I don't feel like I know enough about it to say (it doesn't sound too bad though). What I'm saying is that this article is garbage--heavily slanted partisan garbage--of the type posted far too often on this board.
There is an employer decision impact, but as I've pointed out, there's also a segment of employees who will decide not to be fully employed as well.

I don't know why you think the 2 million number is bogus. The number I saw reported was 2.3 million.
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Old 02-05-2014, 05:48 AM   #22
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Old 02-05-2014, 06:36 AM   #23
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Quote:
Originally Posted by cosmo20002 View Post
This 2 million number seems to be pulled out of thin air, or at least is simply from the writer's interpretation, not the CBO's. Demand for workers determines how many workers there are, and this blurb doesn't say why there would be less demand for workers.
That is because the CBO actual says the ACA will increase demand for goods and services.

These pieces are FAUX outrage pieces catering to the derp crowd.
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Old 02-05-2014, 01:43 PM   #24
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Originally Posted by Loneiguana View Post
That is because the CBO actual says the ACA will increase demand for goods and services.

These pieces are FAUX outrage pieces catering to the derp crowd.
Since when are govt predictions about a program ever accurate?
Never...possibly a few exceptions. It's the same as how they predict costs which are always wrong and much higher.

Even it did increase demand for some goods and services, since you relied on a generality, it doesn't mean it won't lead to other things being dropped or lost.
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Old 02-05-2014, 01:46 PM   #25
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Old 02-05-2014, 02:05 PM   #26
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Originally Posted by Loneiguana View Post
That is because the CBO actual says the ACA will increase demand for goods and services.

These pieces are FAUX outrage pieces catering to the derp crowd.

Its all done to posture and stir up discontent with ACA. None of this is real.
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Old 02-05-2014, 03:26 PM   #27
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Other than fry cooks getting hours cut back to help the company avoid coverage, I'm not sure how ObamaCare makes a person leave a job. Then again, if it does, it sort of tells you the mindset a certain part of our population.

I think they just don't want to work and this is the perfect excuse...
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Old 02-05-2014, 03:36 PM   #28
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Other than fry cooks getting hours cut back to help the company avoid coverage, I'm not sure how ObamaCare makes a person leave a job. Then again, if it does, it sort of tells you the mindset a certain part of our population.

I think they just don't want to work and this is the perfect excuse...
Of the 4 threads on this, I think this was discussed in two of them. Not saying you should know that--there's 4 ****ing threads. Thanks, HCF
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Old 02-05-2014, 03:38 PM   #29
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Of the 4 threads on this, I think this was discussed in two of them. Not saying you should know that--there's 4 ****ing threads. Thanks, HCF
Are you suggesting we need a 5th?
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Old 02-05-2014, 04:15 PM   #30
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Originally Posted by GloryDayz View Post
Other than fry cooks getting hours cut back to help the company avoid coverage, I'm not sure how ObamaCare makes a person leave a job. Then again, if it does, it sort of tells you the mindset a certain part of our population.

I think they just don't want to work and this is the perfect excuse...
For people with incomes near the cut off line for Obamacare subsidies, working full time means no subsidies (and the person has to pay full price for coverage either directly or as part of his employment compensation). Not working or working part time means you get exchange provided healthcare subsidized plus extra leisure time. Forbes describes this as an implicit tax for those who choose full time work of ~15%.

It's similar to other aspects of our welfare system where a person who ends up in the system essentially has to take an hourly paycut to go back to work. It's a social safety web rather than a social safety net (or better yet a social safety trampoline).
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