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Old 02-04-2014, 04:37 PM  
Loneiguana Loneiguana is offline
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What the CPO actually Said

You may want to sit down for this, because it may shock you, but...

Why the new CBO report on Obamacare is good news

Quote:
The Congressional Budget Office is out with its latest report on the Affordable Care Act, and here are a few bottom lines:
— The ACA is cheaper than it expected.
— It will "markedly increase" the number of Americans with health insurance.
— The risk-adjustment provisions, which Congressional Republicans want to overturn as a "bailout" of the insurance industry, will actually turn a profit to the U.S. Treasury.

Given all this, why are the first news headlines on the CBO report depicting it as calling Obamacare a job killer?

You can chalk up some of that to the crudity of headline-writing, and some to basic innumeracy in the press. But it's important to examine what the CBO actually says about the ACA's impact on the labor market. (You can find it at pages 117-127, excerpted here.)

The CBO projects that the act will reduce the supply of labor, not the availability of jobs. There's a big difference. In fact, it suggests that aggregate demand for labor (that is, the number of jobs) will increase, not decrease; but that many workers or would-be workers will be prompted by the ACA to leave the labor force, many of them voluntarily.

As economist Dean Baker points out, this is, in fact, a beneficial effect of the law, and a sign that it will achieve an important goal. It helps "older workers with serious health conditions who are working now because this is the only way to get health insurance. And (one for the family-values crowd) many young mothers who return to work earlier than they would like because they need health insurance. This is a huge plus."

The ACA will reduce the total hours worked by about 1.5% to 2% in 2017 to 2024, the CBO forecasts, "almost entirely because workers will choose to supply less labor — given the new taxes and other incentives they will face and the financial benefits some will receive." That translates into about 2.5 million full-time equivalents by 2024 — not the number of workers, because some will reduce their number of hours worked rather than leaving the workforce entirely.

The overall impact on the community will be muted, moreover, because most of that effect will be seen at the lowest levels of the wage-earning scale. The effect will be "small or negligible for most categories of workers," the CBO says, because there will be almost no impact on workers who get their insurance from their employers or who earn more than 400% of the federal poverty line (for a family of three, that's $78,120), the point at which eligibility for federal premium disappears.

As for labor demand, the CBO estimates that on balance, the ACA will increase aggregate demand for goods and services, in part by relieving lower-income people of the burden of health insurance or healthcare expenses, so they can increase their spending on other things. In turn, that will "boost demand for labor," especially in the near term, while the economy remains slack.

The rest of the CBO's economic and budgetary analysis has only modest changes from previous projections. It reduced its estimate of the net costs of the ACA by a vanishingly small $9 billion over 10 years compared to its previous estimate, issued in May. In part this is because many states failed to expand Medicaid, which would be almost entirely paid for by the federal government, and also because premiums are lower than it previously projected. Also, the problems of the healthcare.gov website reduced enrollments, cutting the government's bill for premium subsidies. Overall, the CBO reaffirmed its conclusion that that "the total effect of the ACA would be to reduce federal deficits."

The CBO report cuts the legs out from the GOP's attack on "risk corridors," a provision of the ACA that balances costs and expenses for insurance companies participating in the act by paying insurers whose coverage expenses exceed expectations by a certain margin in the first few years of the act, and collecting excess revenues from those whose expenses come in unexpectedly lower.

We've previously identified this GOP position as the most cynical attack on the ACA of all — the Republicans choose to call it a "bailout" of insurers; actually, it's a way of keeping premiums for some plans from getting out of hand, until the industry has more experience dealing with its new clientele. Unsurprisingly, the GOP is doubling down on this dishonesty by talking about eliminating the risk corridors as a condition for raising the federal debt limit.
The CBO, in any case, says that in 2015-2024, the government will pay out $8 billion in risk subsidies to the insurers but collect $16 billion. Real-world math says this is a gain to the Treasury of $8 billion; GOP math says it's a "bailout." You be the judge.

Regarding its most important bottom-line finding, the CBO says enrollment in individual insurance exchanges may reach only 6 million this year, down from its previous estimate of 7 million, thanks to the problems with the federal enrollment website, healthcare.gov. But it says enrollment will likely surge as the April 1 deadline for signing up approaches, and the 7-million goal is still attainable.

The ACA will increase the number of Americans with health insurance by 13 million this year, 20 million next year, and 25 million each year from then through 2024. Some 80% of those enrollees will be receiving federal subsidies to keep their coverage affordable.
There will be fewer uninsured people living in the United States, and most of those with individual coverage will be getting help to pay for it. Is there another other conclusion to draw from those statistics than the Affordable Care Act is working?
http://www.latimes.com/business/hilt...#axzz2sOnNHEGd
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Old 02-05-2014, 11:21 AM   #76
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Originally Posted by patteeu View Post
Even if it's misleading (and I'm not agreeing that it is), it doesn't mean it's not a fact in the sense that it's an accurate description of what the report says. That's a quote directly from the report.

CBO boys getting an opportunity to explain.
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Old 02-05-2014, 11:24 AM   #77
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Originally Posted by patteeu View Post
Even if it's misleading (and I'm not agreeing that it is), it doesn't mean it's not a fact in the sense that it's an accurate description of what the report says.
See page 117 of the report. It's a direct quote.
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Old 02-05-2014, 11:34 AM   #78
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Originally Posted by cosmo20002 View Post
It is a fact that someone wrote this about the report. It is not a fact that it is accurate. #1 is particularly misleading.
I forgot:

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Old 02-05-2014, 03:07 PM   #79
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Originally Posted by Loneiguana View Post
That is not what the CBO said.

The hours worked aren't being reduced.

People who worked just to get health insurance don't have to work to get it now, and may choose to not work anymore.

That is what the CBO said.
If you are too stupid to understand a report, you REALLY shouldn't comment on it. Jesus, clown music should play every time you make a post.

The CBO specifically states that the overall hours worked WILL BE REDUCED. To the tune of what would be the equivalent of 2.3ish million full time workers.

Since this whole thing is obviously very confusing to you. Here is an article you should read and try to maybe understand what the CBO is saying...

http://www.forbes.com/sites/scottgot...-wage-workers/

Here are some select quotes for you...

Quote:
forgoing Obamacare subsidies and returning to full time work with health benefits (for lower wage and middle class workers) amounts to an average, implicit tax of about 15% paid by each worker. CBO does note that these considerations only affect a segment of the workforce – specifically the middle class and working class who earn annual incomes that put them below 400% of the Federal poverty level (about $95,000 for a family of four). But that represents a large portion of the labor market.
Quote:
Translation? The old employer sponsored system forced people to stay in jobs they didn’t like because they needed the health insurance coverage. The new Obamacare system will force people to stay out of jobs they do want because they need to maximize their subsidies. And this is social progress?
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Old 02-05-2014, 04:21 PM   #80
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Quote:
Originally Posted by patteeu View Post
If we're going to have subsidies, I want them limited to people who need them. You're cheerleading a system where the government pays people not to work.
No.

The government isn't paying people not to work.

I see you got your talking points in.
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Old 02-05-2014, 04:22 PM   #81
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Originally Posted by patteeu View Post
Pretty dumb take. You're in loneiguana territory.
Great rebuttal, you really proved wrong the fact that billions of tax payer dollars are going to workers who don't earn enough to afford the basics.
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Old 02-05-2014, 04:25 PM   #82
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Originally Posted by patteeu View Post
Why do you keep making things up? Have you abandoned the argument about how great it is that the ACA discourages some people from working?
Not really since it's only disincentivizing work that only occurs because of duress; it's not like giving everyone a house and xbox and a blowjob machine, disincentivizing having a career, it is just allowing people to purchase independently things that they could only purchase through an employer.

People still have to work for what they buy, they just no longer have to work for the right to get a fair price on it.

But go ahead and be for making a elderly person work just to get healthcare when they would like to retire. That's a great position to take. Let me know how it works out for you.
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Old 02-05-2014, 04:26 PM   #83
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Originally Posted by stonedstooge View Post
Can't believe they are holding hearings on Capitol Hill concerning the CBO report in spite of Longenious implying there won't be any jobs lost. Why would they do that?
The CBO itself says that.
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Old 02-05-2014, 04:28 PM   #84
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Originally Posted by HonestChieffan View Post
Amazing how this positive report has the White House on DefCon5 and all hands are working to explain it away. They should pipe the Titanic Theme through the sounds system there today.



“All our analysis led us to conclude the effects of [Obamacare] on labor force participation would be a good deal larger than we had though originally,” CBO Director Doug Elmendorf said.

“Fundamentally, the Affordable Care Act provides subsidies to lower income people and those subsidies phase out … that will have some effects on discouraging labor supply.”

In other words, “the 2010 Affordable Care Act is driving businesses and people to choose government-sponsored benefits rather than work.”

Most of those work hours lost will be of the low-wage, low-skilled variety held by just the people Democrats claim to care so much about. According to the Washington Post “low-wage workers are the most likely to drop out of the workforce as a result of the law,” meaning they’re not going to have any prospects of moving up in income.
Again, people still have to work.

Those who will choose not too will be those who were only working for the health insurance. Liked the elderly.

You know, what the CBO said.

And it is a good thing, because it frees up jobs for those who want to work.
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Old 02-05-2014, 04:31 PM   #85
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Originally Posted by cosmo20002 View Post
It is a fact that someone wrote this about the report. It is not a fact that it is accurate. #1 is particularly misleading.
That is why it is called the Faux outraged machine.

They want it to be true. So that is what they are sold by the media.
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Old 02-05-2014, 04:39 PM   #86
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Originally Posted by AustinChief View Post
If you are too stupid to understand a report, you REALLY shouldn't comment on it. Jesus, clown music should play every time you make a post.

The CBO specifically states that the overall hours worked WILL BE REDUCED. To the tune of what would be the equivalent of 2.3ish million full time workers.

Since this whole thing is obviously very confusing to you. Here is an article you should read and try to maybe understand what the CBO is saying...

http://www.forbes.com/sites/scottgot...-wage-workers/

Here are some select quotes for you...
You right, they are select quotes to frame the false narrative.

Or to put bluntly, lying, by leaving out important context and other quotes.

Ready for me to show you how stupid you are, again?

That huge number you guys like to throw around, equals 1.5% to 2% of the total hours worked. Not a big deal. Also, according to the CBO "almost entirely because workers will choose to supply less labor — given the new taxes and other incentives they will face and the financial benefits some will receive."

That is workers choosing not to work because they don't have to in order to get healthcare.

That is a big difference than the narrative of hours available to work being reduced.

"The CBO projects that the act will reduce the supply of labor, not the availability of jobs." If you don't understand that, you shouldn't be in this discussion.

And the CBO goes on to say The effect will be "small or negligible for most categories of workers," the CBO says, because there will be almost no impact on workers who get their insurance from their employers or who earn more than 400% of the federal poverty line (for a family of three, that's $78,120), the point at which eligibility for federal premium disappears.

On the demand side of the equation -- "As for labor demand, the CBO estimates that on balance, the ACA will increase aggregate demand for goods and services, in part by relieving lower-income people of the burden of health insurance or healthcare expenses, so they can increase their spending on other things. In turn, that will "boost demand for labor," especially in the near term, while the economy remains slack. "

What does increase in demand do?

Increase jobs.

So, if you were able to keep up, you should have learned that the ACA, according to the CBO, allows workers who only work to receive health insurance to exit the labor market voluntarily while also increasing demand for goods and services, which is job creation; not decrease jobs or hours available.
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Old 02-05-2014, 04:42 PM   #87
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Originally Posted by Loneiguana View Post
Not really since it's only disincentivizing work that only occurs because of duress;
No, this is false. There are at least two groups of people impacted. There's one group that would rather not work but currently keep their job for the insurance. These people get a great deal because they can quit and get their exchange insurance subsidized. But there's another group that wants to work, but the compensation they'll get for working isn't enough to make it worth losing the subsidy they get for not working. Obamacare is discouraging these people who want to work by making it financially disadvantageous.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Loneiguana View Post
People still have to work for what they buy, they just no longer have to work for the right to get a fair price on it.
Leave your communist vocabulary at the door please. Outside of the red diaper baby circles you come from, working for what you buy means paying the non-subsidized price. Fair price means the same price everyone else pays not a discounted price based on what an able-bodied non-worker is "able" to pay.
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Old 02-05-2014, 04:44 PM   #88
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Loneiguana View Post
The CBO itself says that.
The CBO says our economy will lose the equivalent of 2+ million jobs.
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Old 02-05-2014, 04:45 PM   #89
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Originally Posted by Loneiguana View Post
That is why it is called the Faux outraged machine.

They want it to be true. So that is what they are sold by the media.
It was a quote directly from the report.
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Old 02-05-2014, 04:48 PM   #90
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Originally Posted by Loneiguana View Post
That huge number you guys like to throw around, equals 1.5% to 2% of the total hours worked. Not a big deal. Also, according to the CBO "almost entirely because workers will choose to supply less labor — given the new taxes and other incentives they will face and the financial benefits some will receive."

That is workers choosing not to work because they don't have to in order to get healthcare.

That is a big difference than the narrative of hours available to work being reduced.
Man you have ZERO reading comprehension skill. please point out where I stated that AVAILABLE hours will be reduced? YOU stated that HOURS WORKED will not be reduced. You are WRONG (according to the CBO). The CBO specifically states that total hours worked will be reduced. Period.

What's funny is how clear it is that you can't comprehend this simple concept.
You keep stating...

Quote:
Originally Posted by Loneiguana View Post
And it is a good thing, because it frees up jobs for those who want to work.
How are you not getting this?

ok moving on...

Quote:
Originally Posted by Loneiguana View Post
"The CBO projects that the act will reduce the supply of labor, not the availability of jobs." If you don't understand that, you shouldn't be in this discussion.

And the CBO goes on to say The effect will be "small or negligible for most categories of workers," the CBO says, because there will be almost no impact on workers who get their insurance from their employers or who earn more than 400% of the federal poverty line (for a family of three, that's $78,120), the point at which eligibility for federal premium disappears.

On the demand side of the equation -- "As for labor demand, the CBO estimates that on balance, the ACA will increase aggregate demand for goods and services, in part by relieving lower-income people of the burden of health insurance or healthcare expenses, so they can increase their spending on other things. In turn, that will "boost demand for labor," especially in the near term, while the economy remains slack. "

What does increase in demand do?

Increase jobs.

So, if you were able to keep up, you should have learned that the ACA, according to the CBO, allows workers who only work to receive health insurance to exit the labor market voluntarily while also increasing demand for goods and services, which is job creation; not decrease jobs or hours available.
None of this garbage has anything to do with my rebuttal of your nonsensical posts. Again, I never stated hours AVAILABLE would be affected (according to the CBO report) I stated that your claim that hours WORKED would not be reduced was false (again according to the CBO).

Learn to read, you ****ing moron.
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