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Old 03-20-2014, 11:16 AM  
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Janet Yellen could be the economic saviour we've been waiting for..

Yesterday Yellen announced that The Fed will continue to taper off bond buying and forecast interest rates starting to rise as early as next year. This is already starting to show signs that contrary to Wall St.'s economic guru's, will bolster the economy.

Copper Falls Most in Week as Fed Signals Higher Interest Rates
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-0...e-outlook.html

Gold’s Biggest Drop in 5 Months Underscores Goldman View
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-0...tes-in-15.html

WTI Crude Futures Decline for First Time in Three Days
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-0...ap-widens.html

While the Wall St. talking heads will cry about increased borrowing rates and prices for metals going down due to lack of demand and a slowing economy due to higher rates, the truth could not be further away.

Interest rates are at such low levels they have negative impacts on most American's, again this is contrary to the Wall St. mouthpieces. What rising rates will do is increase the value of the $ which in turn will increase purchasing power of Americans as well as lower the cost of commodities such as copper and oil thus lowering the costs of goods.

While Wall St. will cry over their "Bernanke Put" going bye-bye and paint pictures of doom because rates might go to 1%, every day Americans will slowly start to see things like increased rates on their savings accounts and lower prices at the pump.

Why Wall St. fears the rate increases is obvious. They have enjoyed a guaranteed environment of stocks rising and super low interest rates on borrowing coupled with the inflow of cash from people who typically would not invest in the market but are forced to in efforts to find some sort of yield on their savings.

As disposable income increases for people on fixed incomes via higher rates on less risky investments, as well as others who typically choose the safety of CD's and savings accounts, the economy will start to boom.

Putting money back in the pockets of those who spend it is the only way to get the economy going again. Forget the doom and gloom about how this will cost people more to get a loan for a house or whathaveyou, that's a bogus line in order to instill fear. Main St. has been left out of this "recovery" while Wall St. has benefited more than any other time in history and it has been due to excessively low rates and safety nets implemented by the Fed. Janet Yellen may be the one to finally get the Fed out of the way of Main St. which has been sorely needed. Let's hope so.
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Old 03-20-2014, 12:41 PM   #16
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Originally Posted by InChiefsHell View Post
I don't pretend to understand any of this, really. But it seems we've had record low interest rates for a very very long time now. Don't they have to come up at some point?
They do and should and should never have been allowed to be this low in the first place for this long. All these people talk like everyone is a 6 figure earner and Wall St. insider.

What they don't get is how the lower middle and lower classes are impacted significantly by things like rising oil and food prices. How savers are actually saving more and spending less because they are earning less on their savings.

Or, the little cute trick they avoid altogether, how people are having to assume excessive risk for minimal returns and being forced to put their money in the very mechanism that took them out 5 short years ago.
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Old 03-20-2014, 12:48 PM   #17
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http://www.macrotrends.net/1335/doll...last-ten-years

Seems I have to do this every time Amnorix and others start spouting off the Wall St. bullshit.

Next they will say oil has nothing to do with the price of gas, etc....(I keed)

Seriously though, it doesn't take a rocket scientist to see the relationship of the $ vs Oil and we know when oil goes up, gas goes up and that hurts the economy, save Wall St., of course.
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Old 03-20-2014, 12:55 PM   #18
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Quote:
Originally Posted by InChiefsHell View Post
I don't pretend to understand any of this, really. But it seems we've had record low interest rates for a very very long time now. Don't they have to come up at some point?

Yes, I'd say so. There's always a balance between interest rates, inflation, growth etc. etc. which the Fed is trying to maintain.
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Old 03-20-2014, 12:57 PM   #19
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Quote:
Originally Posted by petegz28 View Post
http://www.macrotrends.net/1335/doll...last-ten-years

Seems I have to do this every time Amnorix and others start spouting off the Wall St. bullshit.

Next they will say oil has nothing to do with the price of gas, etc....(I keed)

Seriously though, it doesn't take a rocket scientist to see the relationship of the $ vs Oil and we know when oil goes up, gas goes up and that hurts the economy, save Wall St., of course.
The dollar decline isn't the only factor in the increase in oil though. Emerging market demand (China in particular) has grown dramatically over that time frame as well.
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Old 03-20-2014, 12:58 PM   #20
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Quote:
Originally Posted by InChiefsHell View Post
I don't pretend to understand any of this, really. But it seems we've had record low interest rates for a very very long time now. Don't they have to come up at some point?
Yes. There's really only one direction that they can move from where they are now.

Now, the debate is whether they move more sideways or do they spike up?
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Old 03-20-2014, 01:01 PM   #21
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Originally Posted by Amnorix View Post
Yes, I'd say so. There's always a balance between interest rates, inflation, growth etc. etc. which the Fed is trying to maintain.
HEH! Are you new to this game or something? The Fed has never acted on time. It's common knowledge that by the time The Fed starts to take action hey are late in the game thus they should have started tapering and raising rates a couple years ago.

**** man, anyone who has paid any attention to Wall St. for any significant amount of time knows that The Fed is always a day late and a $ short.
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Old 03-20-2014, 01:01 PM   #22
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Quote:
Originally Posted by petegz28 View Post
They do and should and should never have been allowed to be this low in the first place for this long. All these people talk like everyone is a 6 figure earner and Wall St. insider.

What they don't get is how the lower middle and lower classes are impacted significantly by things like rising oil and food prices. How savers are actually saving more and spending less because they are earning less on their savings.

Or, the little cute trick they avoid altogether, how people are having to assume excessive risk for minimal returns and being forced to put their money in the very mechanism that took them out 5 short years ago.
Disagree on the duration of low rates. The Fed has been fighting deflationary pressure since 2008 (we're still not completely out of the woods). If inflation were to pick up, then rates need to come up, but it's still not showing up.

Also, this market is completely different than '08. Valuations are no where close to being as extended as they were back then. Now, you can't expect huge returns if you're putting in new money right now but you're not paying what you were paying back in 2007.
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Old 03-20-2014, 01:02 PM   #23
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The dollar decline isn't the only factor in the increase in oil though. Emerging market demand (China in particular) has grown dramatically over that time frame as well.
I agree there are more geopolitical and global economy issues at play but nonetheless math is math. while demand has increased you will find economists or oil trade gurus that will tell you that the low $ is still playing a significant part of high oil prices.
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Old 03-20-2014, 01:10 PM   #24
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Disagree on the duration of low rates. The Fed has been fighting deflationary pressure since 2008 (we're still not completely out of the woods). If inflation were to pick up, then rates need to come up, but it's still not showing up.

Also, this market is completely different than '08. Valuations are no where close to being as extended as they were back then. Now, you can't expect huge returns if you're putting in new money right now but you're not paying what you were paying back in 2007.
We can agree to disagree then. I stand by my earlier comments that The Fed always acts long after they should have. Much like how when Economists finally declare we are in a recession we have already been in one for quite some time.

As far as your last comment goes I have to take issue. While not getting huge returns we ARE paying more than in 07 for daily needs and having to assume significantly higher levels of risk to manage meager yields. So what I may not be paying as much in the order of interest on a mortgage I am paying more for gas, food and energy and at a time where wages are stagnant.

I will reiterate, Main St. was left out of this recovery.
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Old 03-20-2014, 01:12 PM   #25
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HEH! Are you new to this game or something? The Fed has never acted on time. It's common knowledge that by the time The Fed starts to take action hey are late in the game thus they should have started tapering and raising rates a couple years ago.

**** man, anyone who has paid any attention to Wall St. for any significant amount of time knows that The Fed is always a day late and a $ short.

Where did I ever say the Fed was always on time, or has a stellar track record of being ahead of the curve, or has a crystal ball?
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Old 03-20-2014, 01:15 PM   #26
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Originally Posted by petegz28 View Post
HEH! Are you new to this game or something? The Fed has never acted on time. It's common knowledge that by the time The Fed starts to take action hey are late in the game thus they should have started tapering and raising rates a couple years ago.

**** man, anyone who has paid any attention to Wall St. for any significant amount of time knows that The Fed is always a day late and a $ short.
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Originally Posted by petegz28 View Post
We can agree to disagree then. I stand by my earlier comments that The Fed always acts long after they should have. Much like how when Economists finally declare we are in a recession we have already been in one for quite some time.

As far as your last comment goes I have to take issue. While not getting huge returns we ARE paying more than in 07 for daily needs and having to assume significantly higher levels of risk to manage meager yields. So what I may not be paying as much in the order of interest on a mortgage I am paying more for gas, food and energy and at a time where wages are stagnant.

I will reiterate, Main St. was left out of this recovery.

Yes it has, but not because consumer prices have spiked due to easy money policy. CPI has been relatively tame for the last several years.
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Old 03-20-2014, 01:15 PM   #27
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Where did I ever say the Fed was always on time, or has a stellar track record of being ahead of the curve, or has a crystal ball?
When you disagreed with the point I made of them needing to take this action a couple years ago????
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Old 03-20-2014, 01:21 PM   #28
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Yes it has, but not because consumer prices have spiked due to easy money policy. CPI has been relatively tame for the last several years.
Okay see there is what the economist's charts say and then there is the reality on the ground. Just like how the Fed Gov says unemployment is 6.5% and we know that isn't the real number.

Now I am not blaming Obama for this, it's just the title of the article but you have a hard time telling a working, middle-class or lower-class family that inflation has been "tame" when they are paying almost double at the pump than they were 5 years ago.

Price of Gallon of Gas Up 96% Under Obama
- See more at: http://cnsnews.com/news/article/pric....1d6oXqFr.dpuf
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Old 03-20-2014, 03:18 PM   #29
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When you disagreed with the point I made of them needing to take this action a couple years ago????

I don't think too many at the Fed think they were too slow to do this. Hell, they haven't even DONE it YET.

And I certainly don't think bringing interest rates back up is three years overdue.
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Old 03-20-2014, 03:22 PM   #30
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Okay see there is what the economist's charts say and then there is the reality on the ground. Just like how the Fed Gov says unemployment is 6.5% and we know that isn't the real number.

Now I am not blaming Obama for this, it's just the title of the article but you have a hard time telling a working, middle-class or lower-class family that inflation has been "tame" when they are paying almost double at the pump than they were 5 years ago.

Price of Gallon of Gas Up 96% Under Obama
- See more at: http://cnsnews.com/news/article/pric....1d6oXqFr.dpuf

Randomly selecting ONE particular day five years ago to compare gas prices to is pathetically misleading.

Gas isn't really up significantly over the last six or seven years.

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