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Old 03-20-2014, 12:16 PM  
petegz28 petegz28 is offline
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Janet Yellen could be the economic saviour we've been waiting for..

Yesterday Yellen announced that The Fed will continue to taper off bond buying and forecast interest rates starting to rise as early as next year. This is already starting to show signs that contrary to Wall St.'s economic guru's, will bolster the economy.

Copper Falls Most in Week as Fed Signals Higher Interest Rates
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-0...e-outlook.html

Gold’s Biggest Drop in 5 Months Underscores Goldman View
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-0...tes-in-15.html

WTI Crude Futures Decline for First Time in Three Days
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-0...ap-widens.html

While the Wall St. talking heads will cry about increased borrowing rates and prices for metals going down due to lack of demand and a slowing economy due to higher rates, the truth could not be further away.

Interest rates are at such low levels they have negative impacts on most American's, again this is contrary to the Wall St. mouthpieces. What rising rates will do is increase the value of the $ which in turn will increase purchasing power of Americans as well as lower the cost of commodities such as copper and oil thus lowering the costs of goods.

While Wall St. will cry over their "Bernanke Put" going bye-bye and paint pictures of doom because rates might go to 1%, every day Americans will slowly start to see things like increased rates on their savings accounts and lower prices at the pump.

Why Wall St. fears the rate increases is obvious. They have enjoyed a guaranteed environment of stocks rising and super low interest rates on borrowing coupled with the inflow of cash from people who typically would not invest in the market but are forced to in efforts to find some sort of yield on their savings.

As disposable income increases for people on fixed incomes via higher rates on less risky investments, as well as others who typically choose the safety of CD's and savings accounts, the economy will start to boom.

Putting money back in the pockets of those who spend it is the only way to get the economy going again. Forget the doom and gloom about how this will cost people more to get a loan for a house or whathaveyou, that's a bogus line in order to instill fear. Main St. has been left out of this "recovery" while Wall St. has benefited more than any other time in history and it has been due to excessively low rates and safety nets implemented by the Fed. Janet Yellen may be the one to finally get the Fed out of the way of Main St. which has been sorely needed. Let's hope so.
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Old 03-20-2014, 04:23 PM   #31
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Originally Posted by petegz28 View Post
This is just moronic. The price of risk is so ****ed up right now. I don't know where you get this notion that a strong $ is bad considering at the moment the purchasing power of the $ is eroded on a daily basis for anyone not willing to take a excessive amount of risk for a minimal yield.

I won't even get into the economics of $-denominated assets because I don't think you are informed on such.
Wow that's an incredible amount of fail in one post.
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Old 03-20-2014, 04:34 PM   #32
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Originally Posted by Amnorix View Post
Randomly selecting ONE particular day five years ago to compare gas prices to is pathetically misleading.

Gas isn't really up significantly over the last six or seven years.

You made the claim that CPI has been tame the last few years and I showed you a data of what gas has done over that time. If you wish to move the goal posts then fine but just say you're doing so.
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Old 03-20-2014, 04:35 PM   #33
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Wow that's an incredible amount of fail in one post.
stick to theology and astronomy
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Old 03-20-2014, 04:40 PM   #34
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Originally Posted by petegz28 View Post
Janet Yellen could be the economic saviour we've been waiting for.
She's female and not attractive at all, so there is no way she'll be effective at anything.

/CP
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Old 03-20-2014, 05:11 PM   #35
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Originally Posted by petegz28 View Post
You made the claim that CPI has been tame the last few years and I showed you a data of what gas has done over that time. If you wish to move the goal posts then fine but just say you're doing so.

That's complete horseshit. You did NOT show me "data of what gas has done over that time" you showed me data of what gas did from ONE PARTICULAR DAY years ago to now. That's nice, but it's horribly skewed and presents a very misleading picture.

The article you reference notes that gas is up 96% under Obama, by comparing current gas prices to the price on the day that he came into office.

Quote:
According to EIA data, the average price of a gallon of regular unleaded gasoline in the United States was $1.838 on Jan. 19, 2009--the day before Obama took office. As of Monday, Feb. 11, 2013, the per-gallon price had risen to an average of $3.611--an increase of 96 percent. - See more at: http://cnsnews.com/news/article/pric....PxUTnpPh.dpuf

As the chart I posted shows, however, gas was even HIGHER than it currently is in the summer of 2008, so I could say "Gas is DOWN 15% [or whatever] from June X, 2008 to now".

Which would ALSO BE MISLEADING BULLSHIT. Cherry picking one day from X years ago and comparing everything against that day, ESPECIALLY when it's clearly an outlier relative to the prices during the months before and after it, is just meant to mislead and deceive.
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Old 03-20-2014, 05:13 PM   #36
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Originally Posted by petegz28 View Post
You made the claim that CPI has been tame the last few years and I showed you a data of what gas has done over that time. If you wish to move the goal posts then fine but just say you're doing so.

Second point of your epic fail. CPI includes far more than just gas. I say "CPI is relatively flat" and you say "Gas is up" and post a misleading statistic about gas.

Great, but first your statistic is misleading because it cherry-picks, and second CPI involves the price of far more than just gas.

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Old 03-20-2014, 05:21 PM   #37
petegz28 petegz28 is offline
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Originally Posted by Amnorix View Post
Second point of your epic fail. CPI includes far more than just gas. I say "CPI is relatively flat" and you say "Gas is up" and post a misleading statistic about gas.

Great, but first your statistic is misleading because it cherry-picks, and second CPI involves the price of far more than just gas.

Yeah, yeah, you say the same thing most of the Wall St. Eco's say and anyone who lives in the real world can point to more than just gas to prove that wrong.

But hey, don't let that stop you from patting yourself on the back for parroting Wall St. bullshit.

And what I actually said was you have a hard time telling people CPI is flat when the price of gas is doubled in 5 years. You can kick, stomp and spin all you want but that's the fact.

Oh and um, Mr. Professor, you do realize most of these CPI reports toss out food and energy right off the top, right???
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Old 03-20-2014, 06:51 PM   #38
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When did Petz turn into a lib on economics?
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Old 03-20-2014, 08:30 PM   #39
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When did Petz turn into a lib on economics?
It has nothing to do with being Lib or Con. It's basic ****ing economics. I just happen to take into account economics outside of Wall St.

To get the economy going you have to provide people with spending power not just borrowing power. The flaw in the current strategy of low rates is no one can afford to take advantage of the low rates because they are not getting raises, they are paying more at the pump, more at the grocery check out and now even more for their health care thanks to the Dems.

So WTF good is low rates for anyone outside of Wall St.? Not to mention to get any kind of yield on your savings you have to assume more and more risk at a time when you can't afford to take on additional risk. Again, winner=Wall St., loser=Main St.

I have been active in the financial markets for almost 25 years and learned long ago how to sift through their double speak.

On the other hand, an uptick in interest rates at this point provides Main St. with additional purchasing power, lower prices at the pump and grocery store, a better return on their savings with less risk and that ultimately leads to more disposable income for the middle and lower classes to now do things like borrow and spend more.

Some here though can't see the forest through the trees.
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Old 03-21-2014, 10:24 AM   #40
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When did Petz turn into a lib on economics?

He was pounding the board pretty hard a few years ago saying that higher interest rates, and more inflation IIRC, is better for America's middle class and lower classes.

His economic views aren't really liberal as much as whacky. IIRC he also does that ridiculous "head and shoulders" type stock investing, "charting" or whatever it's called, which is a pretty damn silly way to try to invest.
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Old 03-21-2014, 10:32 AM   #41
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He was pounding the board pretty hard a few years ago saying that higher interest rates, and more inflation IIRC, is better for America's middle class and lower classes.

His economic views aren't really liberal as much as whacky. IIRC he also does that ridiculous "head and shoulders" type stock investing, "charting" or whatever it's called, which is a pretty damn silly way to try to invest.
It's called Technical Analysis and it's only silly because you don't understand it. Obviously there is a lot regarding the markets that you are not very informed about. I can understand why Technical Analysis would be a difficult concept for you to grasp as it focuses primarily on price and not much more thus sorting out all the noise and BS people like you cling to like religion.
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Old 03-21-2014, 10:43 AM   #42
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It's called Technical Analysis and it's only silly because you don't understand it. Obviously there is a lot regarding the markets that you are not very informed about. I can understand why Technical Analysis would be a difficult concept for you to grasp as it focuses primarily on price and not much more thus sorting out all the noise and BS people like you cling to like religion.

Right, technical analysis. I understand enough to understand that it's silly. Rather than caring at all about what a company is, or does, or where it's going, it basically looks at trends in PAST prices to determine FUTURE prices.

You're not studying what the companies are or do, but rather how the investors in those stocks invest. It's more of a psychological analysis of investors' behavior patterns than anything else.

I suppose in the end those that evaluate a company's fundamentals don't hit 100% of the time either, but the most successful investors in the stock market over time typically aren't from the technical analysis school.
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Old 03-21-2014, 11:34 AM   #43
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Right, technical analysis. I understand enough to understand that it's silly. Rather than caring at all about what a company is, or does, or where it's going, it basically looks at trends in PAST prices to determine FUTURE prices.

You're not studying what the companies are or do, but rather how the investors in those stocks invest. It's more of a psychological analysis of investors' behavior patterns than anything else.

I suppose in the end those that evaluate a company's fundamentals don't hit 100% of the time either, but the most successful investors in the stock market over time typically aren't from the technical analysis school.

You obviously don't understand as much as you think. You can sit there and pour over all the balance sheets you want, what it all comes down to is price. The market is nothing else but price. It's that simple. There is no other factor that matters other than price. All those financial statements and whatnot are nothing more than tools to help derive what price levels are under, over or properly valued. The market is based on speculation driven 90% by emotion, not P\E ratios and EPS reports. You would do yourself a service to quit being so arrogant and come to grips with this fundamental fact.

Having said that, for someone who wants to champion fundamentals you obviously have trouble grasping the effects of currencies on an inter-market basis.
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Old 03-21-2014, 12:48 PM   #44
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Fair enough, allow me to explain:

Oil, copper, sugar, etc. are denominated in US $'s. Thus we use basic math, the lower the value of the $, the higher the cost of said goods. The higher the cost of said goods the higher the price of the end product in which they are used in.

So, logic and math dictate that if the $ rises it is worth more and therefore assets denominated in $'s come down in price because, you guessed it, the $ is worth more so can buy more of said asset.

Rising interest rates are what make the $ worth more and like anything they can be both good and bad. At this point rates are so low they are hurting so some uptick in rates would benefit the economy, contrary to the Wall St. talking heads mantra.

There is a real effect on the economy via interest rates and the effect is, as KC Native accurately pointed out and FD is refusing to acknowledge is when rates are too low for artificial reasons then it becomes damaging as as stated, we are repeating what Greenspan did only imo to a higher degree.
Perhaps I'm just obtuse but throughout my lifetime ( I am pushing 50) the times of high interest rates coincided with higher prices of goods and services. John Q public having higher car payments, higher mortgage payments, higher student loan payments, higher sba loans and so forth.

In a semi related topic regarding inflation there is something occurring this very minute that will start pushing the price of everything upward. When the economy tanked the lower end of the transportation industry was devastated. Many of the small freight companies and owner operators simply could not make it. The large companies exacerbated the issue by moving freight at a loss to keep their employees busy and to drive out the competition.
Now back to the present. The winter storms brought transportation to a standstill including many of the ports. The freight piled up and the already inadequate number of trucks found their selves able to pick and choose what to haul and name their own price. If one looks at the ratio of loads per truck you will find 10 or 20 to 1 in most areas. So in short the price to haul a truckload of product has doubled in the last 90 days and produce season is just getting ready to start in the south. Expect things to cost more,
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Old 03-21-2014, 01:06 PM   #45
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Perhaps I'm just obtuse but throughout my lifetime ( I am pushing 50) the times of high interest rates coincided with higher prices of goods and services. John Q public having higher car payments, higher mortgage payments, higher student loan payments, higher sba loans and so forth.

In a semi related topic regarding inflation there is something occurring this very minute that will start pushing the price of everything upward. When the economy tanked the lower end of the transportation industry was devastated. Many of the small freight companies and owner operators simply could not make it. The large companies exacerbated the issue by moving freight at a loss to keep their employees busy and to drive out the competition.
Now back to the present. The winter storms brought transportation to a standstill including many of the ports. The freight piled up and the already inadequate number of trucks found their selves able to pick and choose what to haul and name their own price. If one looks at the ratio of loads per truck you will find 10 or 20 to 1 in most areas. So in short the price to haul a truckload of product has doubled in the last 90 days and produce season is just getting ready to start in the south. Expect things to cost more,
Well it's like anything in life for the most part, too much of anything is bad. Yes rising rates will increase the cost of some goods while lowering the cost of others. The trick is to find the sweet spot. The problem I contend we have is the rates have been too low for too long and really for the wrong reasons. The Fed has kept them low, not the market itself. So while an uptick in rates is going to raise mortgages from 4%-6% it will also reduce the costs of food and energy as well as lower the risk price on yield meaning you might actually make some interest on your savings account instead of being forced to put your savings into a brokerage account. If rates go too high then we have the situation you talked about but that's the pendulum. It swings from one side to the other and right now we are stuck on one side and need to head towards the other.
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