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Old 03-20-2014, 11:16 AM  
petegz28 petegz28 is offline
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Janet Yellen could be the economic saviour we've been waiting for..

Yesterday Yellen announced that The Fed will continue to taper off bond buying and forecast interest rates starting to rise as early as next year. This is already starting to show signs that contrary to Wall St.'s economic guru's, will bolster the economy.

Copper Falls Most in Week as Fed Signals Higher Interest Rates
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-0...e-outlook.html

Gold’s Biggest Drop in 5 Months Underscores Goldman View
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-0...tes-in-15.html

WTI Crude Futures Decline for First Time in Three Days
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-0...ap-widens.html

While the Wall St. talking heads will cry about increased borrowing rates and prices for metals going down due to lack of demand and a slowing economy due to higher rates, the truth could not be further away.

Interest rates are at such low levels they have negative impacts on most American's, again this is contrary to the Wall St. mouthpieces. What rising rates will do is increase the value of the $ which in turn will increase purchasing power of Americans as well as lower the cost of commodities such as copper and oil thus lowering the costs of goods.

While Wall St. will cry over their "Bernanke Put" going bye-bye and paint pictures of doom because rates might go to 1%, every day Americans will slowly start to see things like increased rates on their savings accounts and lower prices at the pump.

Why Wall St. fears the rate increases is obvious. They have enjoyed a guaranteed environment of stocks rising and super low interest rates on borrowing coupled with the inflow of cash from people who typically would not invest in the market but are forced to in efforts to find some sort of yield on their savings.

As disposable income increases for people on fixed incomes via higher rates on less risky investments, as well as others who typically choose the safety of CD's and savings accounts, the economy will start to boom.

Putting money back in the pockets of those who spend it is the only way to get the economy going again. Forget the doom and gloom about how this will cost people more to get a loan for a house or whathaveyou, that's a bogus line in order to instill fear. Main St. has been left out of this "recovery" while Wall St. has benefited more than any other time in history and it has been due to excessively low rates and safety nets implemented by the Fed. Janet Yellen may be the one to finally get the Fed out of the way of Main St. which has been sorely needed. Let's hope so.
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Old 03-21-2014, 12:09 PM   #46
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Originally Posted by petegz28 View Post
You obviously don't understand as much as you think. You can sit there and pour over all the balance sheets you want, what it all comes down to is price. The market is nothing else but price. It's that simple. There is no other factor that matters other than price. All those financial statements and whatnot are nothing more than tools to help derive what price levels are under, over or properly valued. The market is based on speculation driven 90% by emotion, not P\E ratios and EPS reports. You would do yourself a service to quit being so arrogant and come to grips with this fundamental fact.

Having said that, for someone who wants to champion fundamentals you obviously have trouble grasping the effects of currencies on an inter-market basis.

Right.

Quote:
Abstract:
Over 5,000 popular technical trading rules are not consistently profitable in the 49 country indices that comprise the Morgan Stanley Capital Index once data snooping bias is accounted for. Each market has some rules that are profitable when considered in isolation but these profits are not statistically significant after data snooping bias adjustment. There is some evidence that technical trading rules perform better in emerging markets than developed markets, which is consistent with the finding of previous studies that these markets are less efficient, but this result is not strong. While we cannot rule out the possibility that these trading rules compliment other market timing techniques or that trading rules we do not test are profitable, we do show that over 5,000 trading rules do not add value beyond what may be expected by chance when used in isolation during the time period we consider.
http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.c...act_id=1181367.

http://userfiles.talniri.co.il/ForumFiles/444898.pdf

Basically these guys studied 50 different technical analysis rules in 50 markets over 6 years and determined "meh, not so much".
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Old 03-21-2014, 12:12 PM   #47
petegz28 petegz28 is offline
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Originally Posted by Amnorix View Post
Right.



http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.c...act_id=1181367.

http://userfiles.talniri.co.il/ForumFiles/444898.pdf

Basically these guys studied 50 different technical analysis rules in 50 markets over 6 years and determined "meh, not so much".
, you really are just a Wall St. bystander, aren't you? Do you actually do any trading? Save your BS about these rules don't work and those rules don't work but these rules will of this thing does that thing and the other thing is really going to be that other thing.

There is a reason index funds outperform most people on both the technical and fundamental side. Yes, your precious fundamentalists get their ass handed to them year after year by a non-actively managed fund.
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Old 03-21-2014, 12:23 PM   #48
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Originally Posted by petegz28 View Post
, you really are just a Wall St. bystander, aren't you? Do you actually do any trading? Save your BS about these rules don't work and those rules don't work but these rules will of this thing does that thing and the other thing is really going to be that other thing.

There is a reason index funds outperform most people on both the technical and fundamental side. Yes, your precious fundamentalists get their ass handed to them year after year by a non-actively managed fund.

I don't do any trading. Never said I did.
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Old 03-21-2014, 12:38 PM   #49
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Originally Posted by Amnorix View Post
I don't do any trading. Never said I did.
You didn't have too. It was more than obvious.
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Old 03-21-2014, 01:27 PM   #50
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Originally Posted by petegz28 View Post
You didn't have too. It was more than obvious.

I'm sure you have tightly held beliefs about your investing philosophy. The data generally suggests your system isn't any better than random luck, but suit yourself.

Not really any point in arguing about it. Besides, I honestly don't care.
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Old 03-21-2014, 01:34 PM   #51
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Originally Posted by petegz28 View Post
You obviously don't understand as much as you think. You can sit there and pour over all the balance sheets you want, what it all comes down to is price. The market is nothing else but price. It's that simple. There is no other factor that matters other than price. All those financial statements and whatnot are nothing more than tools to help derive what price levels are under, over or properly valued. The market is based on speculation driven 90% by emotion, not P\E ratios and EPS reports. You would do yourself a service to quit being so arrogant and come to grips with this fundamental fact.

Having said that, for someone who wants to champion fundamentals you obviously have trouble grasping the effects of currencies on an inter-market basis.
Sorry, but P/E ratios are one of the best predictors of future investment returns (it's not ironclad), but GMO's work in this area is fantastic and shows that if you overpay for earnings then subsequent returns are less than stellar.

Valuation is incredibly important. Technicals can give you a decent idea if what you've identified has already moved on it, but they are not sufficient on their own.
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Old 03-21-2014, 01:42 PM   #52
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Sorry, but P/E ratios are one of the best predictors of future investment returns (it's not ironclad), but GMO's work in this area is fantastic and shows that if you overpay for earnings then subsequent returns are less than stellar.

Valuation is incredibly important. Technicals can give you a decent idea if what you've identified has already moved on it, but they are not sufficient on their own.
I could point you to Bill O'Neil's investment guidelines that actually have you buying companies when their P\E ratio is showing the stock as well over valued but yet the price kept going up.

I have never said that technicals on their own are the end-ball be-all. Regardless as I said earlier it all comes down to 1 thing and 1 thing only...price. Period. End of discussion. How one chooses evaluate price and act upon it is as varied as the flavors a Baskin Robins squared to infinity.

Where techinicals have the advantage is no matter what the fundamentals, the actions taken based on them as well as news, etc is always, always, always reflected in the price. There is no getting around it. And the better you become at analyzing price and price action the more you position yourself to take advantage of price movement well ahead of when the fundamentals come to fruition. The market as you know is about speculation.
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Old 03-23-2014, 12:24 PM   #53
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I don't claim to know much about stuff like this, but i do feel that there is a lot more inflation that what the government says. I know the government excludes certain factors in calculating it (food is one I know for sure, and isn't energy/ultilities one as well?).

Everyone says inflation is flat...but go to a grocery store and look at the prices. Beef prices are rising, milk is at almost 5 bucks a gallon.

Electric and gas companies all over the country are trying to pass or implement rate hikes.

Maybe inflation is flat on fancy real estate, cars, etc...but inflation is real on the things most people need to live...

People keep saying the economy is getting better...I just don't see it. And the fact is, once prices go up, they very rarely come down. Look as gasoline....the hikes are significantly higher than any drops (typically goes up .15-20 cents, but then only will drop .05-.10 cents when supply outweighs demand)

Ask and economic analyst on tv and you will hear that the economy is getting better...ask someone on the street and you get a different answer. People on the street maybe not be experts, but they know when inflation is hitting their pocketbook...they feel the effects, whether they can explain it or not.
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Old 03-23-2014, 12:26 PM   #54
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Originally Posted by mnchiefsguy View Post
I don't claim to know much about stuff like this, but i do feel that there is a lot more inflation that what the government says. I know the government excludes certain factors in calculating it (food is one I know for sure, and isn't energy/ultilities one as well?).

Everyone says inflation is flat...but go to a grocery store and look at the prices. Beef prices are rising, milk is at almost 5 bucks a gallon.

Electric and gas companies all over the country are trying to pass or implement rate hikes.

Maybe inflation is flat on fancy real estate, cars, etc...but inflation is real on the things most people need to live...

People keep saying the economy is getting better...I just don't see it. And the fact is, once prices go up, they very rarely come down. Look as gasoline....the hikes are significantly higher than any drops (typically goes up .15-20 cents, but then only will drop .05-.10 cents when supply outweighs demand)

Ask and economic analyst on tv and you will hear that the economy is getting better...ask someone on the street and you get a different answer. People on the street maybe not be experts, but they know when inflation is hitting their pocketbook...they feel the effects, whether they can explain it or not.
CPI excludes food and energy, that is correct.
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Old 03-23-2014, 02:22 PM   #55
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mnchiefsguy View Post
I don't claim to know much about stuff like this, but i do feel that there is a lot more inflation that what the government says. I know the government excludes certain factors in calculating it (food is one I know for sure, and isn't energy/ultilities one as well?).

Everyone says inflation is flat...but go to a grocery store and look at the prices. Beef prices are rising, milk is at almost 5 bucks a gallon.

Electric and gas companies all over the country are trying to pass or implement rate hikes.

Maybe inflation is flat on fancy real estate, cars, etc...but inflation is real on the things most people need to live...

People keep saying the economy is getting better...I just don't see it. And the fact is, once prices go up, they very rarely come down. Look as gasoline....the hikes are significantly higher than any drops (typically goes up .15-20 cents, but then only will drop .05-.10 cents when supply outweighs demand)

Ask and economic analyst on tv and you will hear that the economy is getting better...ask someone on the street and you get a different answer. People on the street maybe not be experts, but they know when inflation is hitting their pocketbook...they feel the effects, whether they can explain it or not.
You have far too much common sense. These debates rage from time to time and die off once all the theory guys have had their shot. Inflation cannot help but to follow the printing of cash the fed has done and anyone who thinks otherwise has a rude awakening in the not so distant future
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Old 03-23-2014, 02:31 PM   #56
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You have far too much common sense. These debates rage from time to time and die off once all the theory guys have had their shot. Inflation cannot help but to follow the printing of cash the fed has done and anyone who thinks otherwise has a rude awakening in the not so distant future
Seems like you're cool with it as long as the rich get richer in the process.
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Old 03-23-2014, 02:39 PM   #57
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Seems like you're cool with it as long as the rich get richer in the process.
Inflation helps no one. And the type of inflation we will see is hardest on fixed income and poor people. Beef chicken and pork are on the verge of major increases at consumer level. The entire QE process has been highly questionable since day one. Politics drove it at the start and it all will balance out at some point. Nothing can be done to address your need to impose a penalty on the rich while helping the poor out of their state.
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Old 03-23-2014, 02:43 PM   #58
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Inflation helps no one. And the type of inflation we will see is hardest on fixed income and poor people. Beef chicken and pork are on the verge of major increases at consumer level. The entire QE process has been highly questionable since day one. Politics drove it at the start and it all will balance out at some point. Nothing can be done to address your need to impose a penalty on the rich while helping the poor out of their state.
Seems just the other day you were bashing on me for criticizing QE. I will have to go back and get your exact words but they were to the effect of "let the rich get richer, who cares". And you still don't ****ing get it. It's not about penalizing the rich. It's about calling out the mechanisms that favor the rich and leave the middle class behind without 2 shits given, such as the Fed and QE.
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Old 03-23-2014, 02:49 PM   #59
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No i didn't bash you. I may disagree with you. I may be a butthead and poke you and push your buttons. I may find your ranting about the rich poor issue to be over the top. But bash you ? No. I don't think anyone bettering their financial position is a bad thing. You have this anti rich, anti ceo thing going on. I don't.
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Old 03-23-2014, 02:54 PM   #60
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No i didn't bash you. I may disagree with you. I may be a butthead and poke you and push your buttons. I may find your ranting about the rich poor issue to be over the top. But bash you ? No. I don't think anyone bettering their financial position is a bad thing. You have this anti rich, anti ceo thing going on. I don't.
No, you need to slow it down and read more. I don't have an anti-rich thing. I do have an anti-large corporate CEO thing going and I do have an anti-fluff the rich only thing going. You don't see me calling for higher taxes on the rich or anything like that, do you? In fact I have defended "the rich" on here for years. But bad behavior is something everyone can be guilty of and I will call out everyone who commits such, like the Fed, like our establishment government, etc.
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