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Old 04-02-2014, 06:13 PM  
HonestChieffan HonestChieffan is online now
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Jensen we need you. Tell us agin this isn't so...

The North Carolina State Board of Elections has found thousands of instances of voter fraud in the state, thanks to a 28-state crosscheck of voter rolls. Initial findings suggest widespread election fraud.

765 voters with an exact match of first and last name, DOB and last four digits of SSN were registered in N.C. and another state and voted in N.C. and the other state in the 2012 general election.
35,750 voters with the same first and last name and DOB were registered in N.C. and another state and voted in both states in the 2012 general election.
155,692 voters with the same first and last name, DOB and last four digits of SSN were registered in N.C. and another state and the latest date of registration or voter activity did not take place within N.C.
The second point is key, as double voting is election fraud under state and federal statutes. Punishment for double voting in federal elections can include jail time.

http://pjmedia.com/tatler/2014/04/02...2012-election/
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Old 04-03-2014, 12:06 AM   #76
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Originally Posted by AustinChief View Post
Nope, it's most likely a good portion absentee voting.


You have the most humorous ability to completely ignore faults in data that you agree with and attempt to completely destroy data that you don't agree with.
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Old 04-03-2014, 12:08 AM   #77
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Originally Posted by cosmo20002 View Post
Oh, he can still delete.
Oh yes, yes I very well could... but that requires work and is a pain in the ass. I fully admit I wasn't paying attention and made an idiotic mistake... but it doesn't change the fact that thinking 35k voters in NC alone are magic duplicates is ridiculous.
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Old 04-03-2014, 12:14 AM   #78
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Originally Posted by DayeMania View Post
while being completely and utterly wrong, you still think yourself qualified to judge the validity of my assertions?

You just took a pretty hard hit, might want to sit a few plays out there bud.
I was not wrong on my assertion that A) you're an idiot and B) it's ridiculous to think NC has 35k magic duplicate voters

I was wrong on my idiotic critique of your equally idiotic John Smith assertion. You got me there!
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Old 04-03-2014, 12:20 AM   #79
DayeMania DayeMania is offline
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Again, if I'm an idiot, what does that make you after the beating you just took?
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Old 04-03-2014, 12:29 AM   #80
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Originally Posted by KC native View Post


You have the most humorous ability to completely ignore faults in data that you agree with and attempt to completely destroy data that you don't agree with.
So you disagree with the Interstate Crosscheck's data? It's a pretty simple program. Participating states ftp their voter data on Jan 15th every year to Arkansas (don't ask me why) then the Kansas Secretary of State IT Dept compares it all and puts the comparison data up for each state to download.

What exactly is the fault? The data represents exactly what each state's voters are according to that state's records

Which is what I am bitching about. The entire system is antiquated and lends itself to fraud that can only be caught (sometimes) after the fact.

In NC there are 765 cases without a doubt of fraud. That figure no one is disputing. An additional 81 dead people voted. No one is disputing that.

The dispute is over the 35k records which have matching names and DOB. We don't have enough data to say definitively that they are all fraud cases. Daye here thinks they are all magic duplicates. I agree that some of course will be.. not 35k. That is ridiculous.

The other issue is that this is only 28 states so who knows what the true figures are.

There is no excuse today to have a voting system that has so many holes in it.
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Old 04-03-2014, 12:30 AM   #81
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DayeMania View Post


Again, if I'm an idiot, what does that make you after the beating you just took?
It's not a beating dumbass... I made one mistake but yes it makes me a dumbass as well.

Just not so dumb to think 35k magic duplicates voted in NC.
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Old 04-03-2014, 12:41 AM   #82
'Hamas' Jenkins 'Hamas' Jenkins is offline
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Originally Posted by AustinChief View Post
The crosscheck db? Why would I tear it apart? The results are laid out clearly and they admit to having incomplete data. That doesn't mean you can't draw conclusions from the data based on simple statistics.
You are so ****ing full of shit it absolutely amazes me.
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Old 04-03-2014, 12:47 AM   #83
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Quote:
Originally Posted by cosmo20002 View Post
Well, you started to answer your own question. I've seen you work, and you don't put up with shitty data and methods.

Honest question--It was reported that X number voted in NC and another state. Why don't they mention the other state(s)? If these are true double-voters, I'd assume they would be mostly bordering states. If they are scattered across the country, that would be really odd.

Why are we only hearing from NC? 28 states were involved in this project? What were their results?
Sorry missed this before.

Check my post to KCNative on how the program works. Last I heard (quite a while back) some states weren't uploading complete data so the SSN check can only be used to show the ones that are for certain duplicates not all possible duplicates. This may have changed, I have no clue.

The other states have similar results to NC actually. There are a couple dozen cases every year that are sent to prosecution because of it. It's hard though because most states don't make it illegal unless it was intentional and that is a bitch to prove. The vast majority are seen as "mistakes" and nothing happens.

See why I keep bitching about our system? It's a joke.
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Old 04-03-2014, 12:49 AM   #84
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Originally Posted by 'Hamas' Jenkins View Post
You are so ****ing full of shit it absolutely amazes me.
Coming from you that's pretty amazing! As far as obnoxious blowhards go you make me look like a complete amateur.
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Old 04-03-2014, 12:49 AM   #85
DayeMania DayeMania is offline
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Originally Posted by AustinChief View Post
It's not a beating dumbass... I made one mistake but yes it makes me a dumbass as well.

Just not so dumb to think 35k magic duplicates voted in NC.
71% of eligible voters are registered
67% of Americans are age 18-65

48% of people with a given name are registered voters 18-65

22000 John Smiths are registered voters 18-65
age 18-65 is a period of 17,167 days

assume even distribution for first 17,167 voting John Smiths, that leaves 4,833 Johns who are necessarily sharing birthdays; if distributed evenly, that means they match up with 4,833 of the John Smiths from the first distribution, making 9,666 John Smiths sharing birthdays (if you don't see why this is, picture ten John Smiths born across 10 days, all on a different day - now add an 11th John Smith in the same timeframe - it's not one John Smith who's now sharing a birthday, it's two)

So, 9,666 registered to vote and <65 yo John Smiths sharing birthdays live nationwide in the USA

3% of the USA lives in NC

So, as a conservative estimate (you may or may not realize this but assuming even distribution is actually the most generous possible measurement for you), 290 John Smiths (just the under 65s!) who share the same birthday as another John Smith are registered to vote in North Carolina.

Nearly 1% of the entire list of your "voter fraud" candidates is explained by one. common. name.

I have done loads more work to support my position (all the math posted here - well, the correct math anyway) than you have to discredit it (posted lots of wrong math, blindly asserting "that's stupid", generally being a moron). Time to do some ****ing work of your own if you want to keep asserting that.
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Old 04-03-2014, 01:10 AM   #86
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DayeMania View Post
71% of eligible voters are registered
67% of Americans are age 18-65

48% of people with a given name are registered voters 18-65

22000 John Smiths are registered voters 18-65
age 18-65 is a period of 17,167 days

assume even distribution for first 17,167 voting John Smiths, that leaves 4,833 Johns who are necessarily sharing birthdays; if distributed evenly, that means they match up with 4,833 of the John Smiths from the first distribution, making 9,666 John Smiths sharing birthdays (if you don't see why this is, picture ten John Smiths born across 10 days, all on a different day - now add an 11th John Smith in the same timeframe - it's not one John Smith who's now sharing a birthday, it's two)

So, 9,666 registered to vote and <65 yo John Smiths sharing birthdays live nationwide in the USA

3% of the USA lives in NC

So, as a conservative estimate (you may or may not realize this but assuming even distribution is actually the most generous possible measurement for you), 290 John Smiths (just the under 65s!) who share the same birthday as another John Smith are registered to vote in North Carolina.

Nearly 1% of the entire list of your "voter fraud" candidates is explained by one. common. name.

I have done loads more work to support my position (all the math posted here - well, the correct math anyway) than you have to discredit it (posted lots of wrong math, blindly asserting "that's stupid", generally being a moron). Time to do some ****ing work of your own if you want to keep asserting that.
Just skimming your math, you skipped a step. The figures are not for registered voters. They are for actual voters who voted recently in NC. Significantly lower %.

The idea that you think can justify your numbers by the 2nd most common name in America is also ridiculous. Let's assume that 1% was accurate (it's obviously not though). That makes sense given the commonality of the name. There are not many name combinations that reach that level. Joseph Wilson (the 10th most common first and last names) falls off to 6500 nationwide. So what does that equal by your math? Around .14%? It will keep diminishing and you'd be lucky to hit 10% of the 35k.
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Old 04-03-2014, 01:21 AM   #87
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Originally Posted by AustinChief View Post
So you disagree with the Interstate Crosscheck's data? It's a pretty simple program. Participating states ftp their voter data on Jan 15th every year to Arkansas (don't ask me why) then the Kansas Secretary of State IT Dept compares it all and puts the comparison data up for each state to download.

What exactly is the fault? The data represents exactly what each state's voters are according to that state's records

Which is what I am bitching about. The entire system is antiquated and lends itself to fraud that can only be caught (sometimes) after the fact.

In NC there are 765 cases without a doubt of fraud. That figure no one is disputing. An additional 81 dead people voted. No one is disputing that.

The dispute is over the 35k records which have matching names and DOB. We don't have enough data to say definitively that they are all fraud cases. Daye here thinks they are all magic duplicates. I agree that some of course will be.. not 35k. That is ridiculous.

The other issue is that this is only 28 states so who knows what the true figures are.
not true
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Old 04-03-2014, 01:27 AM   #88
DayeMania DayeMania is offline
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"lucky to hit 10%"

Assuming a linear decrease from 1% down to 0.14%, the top ten names alone would get you all the way to ~5%. Out of tens of thousands of possible name combinations.

You started off the thread here:

Quote:
Originally Posted by AustinChief View Post
Do you have any idea what the odds are of having the same name and DOB as someone else in the US is? Even with EXTREMELY common names the odds are ridiculous.
It's good that you've managed to learn a little from this thread and coming out of this exceptionally ignorant opinion you held (you have, right?), but it's also become clear along the way that anything related to mathematics, statistics, and distributions is not your strong suit.

Do you still think thirty five thousand people crossed state lines to vote both somewhere else and in NC in 2008 and overwhelmingly voted Democrat enough (would have to be 70-30 Dem if every single one of the 35k was fraudulent, required margin gets higher the more of them are false positives) to cost John McCain the election?
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Old 04-03-2014, 01:30 AM   #89
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Quote:
Originally Posted by AustinChief View Post
Sorry missed this before.

Check my post to KCNative on how the program works. Last I heard (quite a while back) some states weren't uploading complete data so the SSN check can only be used to show the ones that are for certain duplicates not all possible duplicates. This may have changed, I have no clue.

The other states have similar results to NC actually. There are a couple dozen cases every year that are sent to prosecution because of it. It's hard though because most states don't make it illegal unless it was intentional and that is a bitch to prove. The vast majority are seen as "mistakes" and nothing happens.

See why I keep bitching about our system? It's a joke.
It is. Especially for a country that should be the world's example.
IM NOT trying to re-do the 2000 election, but just looking at Florida shows some of the BS. The hanging chad nonsense.
The butterfly ballots--Want to vote for the person listed 2nd vertically? Oh, well, fill in the 3rd circle vertically. It is nuts. But what appears to be reports based on incomplete and incredible-sounding data isn't going to help.
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Old 04-03-2014, 01:32 AM   #90
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So, attempting to think critically on the numbers I have come up with the argument you should have made and a major flaw in my argument.

The database shows people who voted during a given year in two states. Let's assume that 30k in NC did just that and aren't duplicates.

Ok, something I didn't think about but it is a distinct possibility for a significant portion of these is... people who moved and voted legally and correctly. The data doesn't distinguish between national and local elections.

If I lived in NC and voted in some podunk election in March then moved to Missouri and voted again in November... I would show up twice in the data.

THAT makes a hell of a lot more sense than your magic duplicates.

It also explains why states like Missouri and Kansas (with large border communities) see numbers over 100k every year.
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