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Old 04-03-2014, 05:00 AM  
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Restating the obvious, Dorsey learned from Ted Thompson

http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2014/04/03/packers-prefer-compensatory-picks-over-unrestricted-free-agents/


Packers General Manager Ted Thompson has a formula for building his team, and heís sticking with it.

Thompson believes in building through the draft, not free agency, and that includes acquiring more draft picks by declining to sign unrestricted free agents. In the NFL, teams that lose more in free agency than they acquire get compensatory picks, and the Packersí moves in free agency this year indicate that theyíre already thinking about acquiring compensatory picks for next year. The NFL doesnít public the precise formula used to determine compensatory picks, but the simple version is that if the unrestricted free agents you lose are better, higher-paid players than the unrestricted free agents you sign, then the NFL will compensate you the following year with compensatory picks.

As the Green Bay Press-Gazette points out, even the one big name the Packers have signed this offseason, Julius Peppers, was a free agent because he was released by the Bears, not because his previous contract expired. That means he wonít count as an unrestricted free agent addition for the Packers for the purpose of determining their compensatory picks next year.

Last year the Packers lost two key players, receiver Greg Jennings and linebacker Erik Walden, as unrestricted free agents. And the Packers didnít sign any unrestricted free agents last year. As a result, this year theyíre getting an extra third-round pick and an extra fifth-round pick as compensatory selections.

This year the Packers have again not signed away any players whose previous contract expired, but they have lost four players, center Evan Dietrich-Smith, receiver James Jones, defensive lineman C.J. Wilson and offensive lineman Marshall Newhouse. That means the Packers will almost certainly do well when the compensatory picks are passed out a year from now.

Building through the draft and declining to overspend in free agency would be a smart strategy even if the NFL didnít have a compensatory pick system to reward frugal teams. But when compensatory picks are added to the equation, itís easy to see why Thompson declines to go after free agents. The Packers have been successful this way. Itís surprising more teams havenít copied them.


May not be popular here but Dorsey is doing exactly the same thing Thompson and Ozzie Newsome are doing, stockpile draft picks and let UFAs get overpaid elsewhere.
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Old 04-03-2014, 10:50 AM   #121
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Originally Posted by htismaqe View Post
I don't even "hate" what they gave up for him.

I think it's EXTREMELY disingenuous to try and sell people on the "What would Ted Thompson do" angle when Ted Thompson never traded 2 high draft picks for his QB.

I'm not the one talking out of both sides of my mouth. I'm not the one saying they HAD to trade for Alex Smith (for any number of reason last year) but that the long-term approach is to build through the draft.

This is not, and never has been since the day the season ended, about what I wanted. I wanted Geno Smith. I was wrong. I didn't want Alex Smith. I again, was wrong.

This isn't about being mad or being unhappy about what the Chiefs are (or aren't) doing. This isn't about them following (or not following) the blueprint that I want the team to take.

This is about the CLEAR and OBVIOUS differences between what the Chiefs did last year and what they're doing this year. People that explain them away as somehow complimentary are simply choosing to ignore reality.
Last year was the first year of a new regime. They went and got a QB and then signed some middle of the road FAs in hopes of turning things around in their first year. Some people have decided that meant we are in a "win now" mode and that we would go after more FAs and not just middle of the road guys. People actually thinking the Chiefs were going to go all in in year two of the new regime and sign more FAs got a reality check. So the clear and obvious difference this year is we didn't need to trade for a QB and the FAs we've talked with signed elsewhere. It's not really that much different at all. I'm more disturbed that we haven't signed Houston, Berry and Alex Smith to new deals and not having restructured a guy like Flowers. I expected that and then for us to look at middle of the road FAs or FA steals like we got with Schwartz last year. It does suck watching the Donks load up while we stay conservative though.
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Old 04-03-2014, 10:58 AM   #122
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Originally Posted by philfree View Post
Last year was the first year of a new regime. They went and got a QB and then signed some middle of the road FAs in hopes of turning things around in their first year. Some people have decided that meant we are in a "win now" mode and that we would go after more FAs and not just middle of the road guys. People actually thinking the Chiefs were going to go all in in year two of the new regime and sign more FAs got a reality check. So the clear and obvious difference this year is we didn't need to trade for a QB and the FAs we've talked with signed elsewhere. It's not really that much different at all. I'm more disturbed that we haven't signed Houston, Berry and Alex Smith to new deals and not having restructured a guy like Flowers. I expected that and then for us to look at middle of the road FAs or FA steals like we got with Schwartz last year. It does suck watching the Donks load up while we stay conservative though.
There's a little wrench in the gears though, in the form of those 2 picks given up for Alex Smith. I don't care if you spent those 2 picks on a 27-year old John Elway, you still have to surround him with talent. If you're not going to pick-up anything other than marginal depth in free agency, you have to get playmakers in the draft.

If Dorsey is a good GM, those 2 picks equal 2 solid starters. Given the standard probabilities for all teams in the draft, 2 solid starters is basically almost one entire draft.

That doesn't mean that they won't be successful. They've just essentially cut off their nose to spite their face. 2 steps forward, one step back. However you want to look at it.

I'm not saying Alex Smith was a bad move. I'm not saying two picks was too much to give up.

All I'm saying is that giving up those 2 picks make the rest of the "plan" that much harder to execute, thus the probability said "plan" working goes down...
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Old 04-03-2014, 11:05 AM   #123
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I also don't think this conversation happens if the 49ers just kept it at a 2013 2nd rounder and then some change. Maybe a 5th or a 4th in 2014. Instead, the second half turned into a 3rd or a 2nd, with the qualifier for the 2nd being a ridiculously low benchmark (reach 8-8 on the year). It wasn't even a playoff berth. Just 8-8.

The Niners probably wanted this deal. But since the negotiations were being conducted at the combine behind closed doors, it wasn't like there was a bidding war going on or anything. I'll bet they would have accepted the lower offer.
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Old 04-03-2014, 11:26 AM   #124
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Quote:
Originally Posted by htismaqe View Post
It was two critical picks. A good GM will get 2 solid starters out of 2nd round picks. He essentially traded two of them for Alex Smith.



They didn't HAVE to draft a QB. Again, a GOOD GM would find a way to get a good QB without mortgaging his own draft strategy.

For all of the talk about how "garbage" last year's draft was, this year's draft is one of the BEST in recent memory.

And we're missing a 2nd round pick.
2nd round picks have about a 50% hit rate. Alex Smith for 2 second round picks means you, by the odds, traded away 1 likely starter for your starting QB.

http://www.aolnews.com/2009/04/20/ca...nchez-jenkins/

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Old 04-03-2014, 11:29 AM   #125
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Originally Posted by philfree View Post
Last year was the first year of a new regime. They went and got a QB and then signed some middle of the road FAs in hopes of turning things around in their first year. Some people have decided that meant we are in a "win now" mode and that we would go after more FAs and not just middle of the road guys. People actually thinking the Chiefs were going to go all in in year two of the new regime and sign more FAs got a reality check. So the clear and obvious difference this year is we didn't need to trade for a QB and the FAs we've talked with signed elsewhere. It's not really that much different at all. I'm more disturbed that we haven't signed Houston, Berry and Alex Smith to new deals and not having restructured a guy like Flowers. I expected that and then for us to look at middle of the road FAs or FA steals like we got with Schwartz last year. It does suck watching the Donks load up while we stay conservative though.
this.
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Old 04-03-2014, 11:34 AM   #126
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Originally Posted by htismaqe View Post
There's a little wrench in the gears though, in the form of those 2 picks given up for Alex Smith. I don't care if you spent those 2 picks on a 27-year old John Elway, you still have to surround him with talent. If you're not going to pick-up anything other than marginal depth in free agency, you have to get playmakers in the draft.

If Dorsey is a good GM, those 2 picks equal 2 solid starters. Given the standard probabilities for all teams in the draft, 2 solid starters is basically almost one entire draft.

That doesn't mean that they won't be successful. They've just essentially cut off their nose to spite their face. 2 steps forward, one step back. However you want to look at it.

I'm not saying Alex Smith was a bad move. I'm not saying two picks was too much to give up.

All I'm saying is that giving up those 2 picks make the rest of the "plan" that much harder to execute, thus the probability said "plan" working goes down...
A little perhaps but not as much as not having a quality starting QB. If this regimes success hinges off a late 2nd round draft pick then we're screwed anyway. IMO you're overvaluing a 2nd round draft pick and undervaluing Alex Smith. I'd take a quality QB over an unknown 2nd round pick any day. And I too hated the Smith trade at first. I like it now.
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Old 04-03-2014, 11:35 AM   #127
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The Niners probably wanted this deal. But since the negotiations were being conducted at the combine behind closed doors, it wasn't like there was a bidding war going on or anything. I'll bet they would have accepted the lower offer.
I'm not so sure about this... Really, why should have the niners traded Smith? They were going with a new exciting QB running a gimmick offense that had success when defenses didn't have time to prepare for it. Smith and Kap's combined salaries were less than what most teams spend on one QB let alone 2. If the niners don't trade Smith, they have a solid, reliable, veteran QB who can step in if their RUNNING QB sustains a season ending injury for 2 more years! Even if Kap doesn't go down, they had the benefit of Smith coaching him up for 2 more years. Harbaugh himself said that Smith was doing more QB coaching than he was. They weren't going to let him go for cheap. Even if no one else came looking Smith was incredibly valuable to the niners organization given what they were paying him and Kap.
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Old 04-03-2014, 11:38 AM   #128
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All I'm saying is that giving up those 2 picks make the rest of the "plan" that much harder to execute, thus the probability said "plan" working goes down...
I mentioned this a few hours ago, but in terms of discussing how it effects the "plan" (whatever that is) with regards to Alex Smith, it's actually only one pick. He isn't losing access to two playmakers because of the trade. Only one. Because he himself is the other. It's a two for one trade, not a two for zero trade. I know you know this, but it's a point that needs to be made.

In essence, it really boils down to what they're losing out of this year's 2nd round. This is the only time they really get nothing.
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Old 04-03-2014, 11:40 AM   #129
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I don't always follow lockstep, or have the exact same philosophy as my boss.

Why do we assume Dorsey will do the same with Thompson?
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Old 04-03-2014, 11:40 AM   #130
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Originally Posted by keg in kc View Post
I mentioned this a few hours ago, but in terms of discussing how it effects the "plan" (whatever that is) with regards to Alex Smith, it's actually only one pick. He isn't losing access to two playmakers because of the trade. Only one. Because he himself is the other. It's a two for one trade, not a two for zero trade.

So, in essence, it really boils down to what they're losing out of this year's 2nd round.
Fair enough. That's why I said "two steps forward, 1 step back".

It's a net gain, for sure.
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Old 04-03-2014, 11:42 AM   #131
htismaqe htismaqe is offline
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I don't always follow lockstep, or have the exact same philosophy as my boss.

Why do we assume Dorsey will do the same with Thompson?
Bingo.
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Old 04-03-2014, 11:42 AM   #132
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fine ... last year was a quick patch and now we are in normal grind mode.


Still doesn't change the fact that there is going to be a lull until Dorsey gets his draft core built up. Which means that this is a rebuild-ish and that our older core players aren't going to be part of it.

When this year's draft starts we might as well get on the phone and have a fire sale.

Try to trade as many vets for draft picks as we can.

I bet we can squeeze a 1st out of Alex Smith if the QB's go quick.

Charles to regain our 2nd?

What would Hali and DJ go for?


If you are going to build through the draft, then just do it.

Last edited by Mr. Laz; 04-03-2014 at 02:08 PM..
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Old 04-03-2014, 11:46 AM   #133
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So you're not going to be a man and prove that I was talking out of both sides of my mouth?

Gonna bow out before anybody realizes that you got ****ing owned?
Clay? Is that you?

It appears when htis left, as a parting shot he gave you his login info. I can't believe that the real htis typed the post I quoted.

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Old 04-03-2014, 11:47 AM   #134
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I don't see any way they get a 1st out of Alex Smith, particularly not on a one-year contract.

You're also talking about building through the draft like this is Madden and you just unload everybody. When in reality teams are usually still trying to win even when in a rebuild.

I think one of the problems we have in these discussions (myself included) is that everything is not black and white, either/or. You don't generally build a team just with the draft any more than you build one just with free agents. It's usually more like what they're doing, where you settle on a core to build around and go from there. They try to make it into a reloading situation as quickly as possible, rather than an extended rebuilding.
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Old 04-03-2014, 11:47 AM   #135
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Clay? Is that you?

It appears when htis left, as a parting shot he gave you his login info. I can't believe that the real htis typed the post I quoted.

Dinny
Nah, it's the real me.

When people pull pussy moves like he did, I'm gonna let it be known.
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