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Old 04-06-2014, 10:00 AM  
petegz28 petegz28 is offline
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Chicago’s newly armed residents send murder rate plummeting

http://www.bizpacreview.com/2014/04/...mmeting-110575
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Old 04-06-2014, 10:33 AM   #2
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Good news! Chicago's first-quarter 2014 homicide rate is down from the same time last year, and way down from 2012. They also just passed new concealed-carry laws. Here's the question you have to ask, though: Do you think the drop in crime is entirely, mostly, partly, or not at all because of the passage of the new gun laws?

Before you answer, here's an article from the AP (via Yahoo News) that shows that the Chicago homicide rate was indeed high in the first quarter of 2013, but then dropped all year to actually finish 2013 below average. Therefore, the homicide rate has been dropping steadily in Chicago since the second quarter of 2013. Also, here is another article from last July saying that the concealed carry licenses wouldn't be issued until 2014, and sure enough, here is a third from February 28th of this year - barely a month ago - showing that the first were being sent out just then.

So given that no one in Illinois had a legal concealed carry license until at least two months into the three months covered by bizpacreview's article, and that those same statistics show the continuation of a trend that started a full year ago, could the shrinking homicide rate logically be the result of the passage of the concealed carry laws?

Or is it more likely that bizpacreview is deliberately warping the story to advance their own agenda?
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Old 04-06-2014, 11:02 AM   #3
vailpass vailpass is offline
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So correlation is not causality? Who'd a thunk it?
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Old 04-06-2014, 08:52 PM   #4
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Aries Walker View Post
Good news! Chicago's first-quarter 2014 homicide rate is down from the same time last year, and way down from 2012. They also just passed new concealed-carry laws. Here's the question you have to ask, though: Do you think the drop in crime is entirely, mostly, partly, or not at all because of the passage of the new gun laws?

Before you answer, here's an article from the AP (via Yahoo News) that shows that the Chicago homicide rate was indeed high in the first quarter of 2013, but then dropped all year to actually finish 2013 below average. Therefore, the homicide rate has been dropping steadily in Chicago since the second quarter of 2013. Also, here is another article from last July saying that the concealed carry licenses wouldn't be issued until 2014, and sure enough, here is a third from February 28th of this year - barely a month ago - showing that the first were being sent out just then.

So given that no one in Illinois had a legal concealed carry license until at least two months into the three months covered by bizpacreview's article, and that those same statistics show the continuation of a trend that started a full year ago, could the shrinking homicide rate logically be the result of the passage of the concealed carry laws?

Or is it more likely that bizpacreview is deliberately warping the story to advance their own agenda?
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Old 04-07-2014, 01:43 AM   #5
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great post!
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Old 04-08-2014, 01:15 AM   #6
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no-one seems to want to argue with you mr. a walker...

you have done well but i would have loved to see the comments of the usual crew...

what's that you say?

*crickets*
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Old 04-08-2014, 01:04 PM   #7
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Old 04-08-2014, 01:48 PM   #8
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It's been a long cold winter in Chicago the gangs didn't get out much the murder rate dropped.
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Old 04-08-2014, 02:00 PM   #9
BucEyedPea BucEyedPea is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by vailpass View Post
So correlation is not causality? Who'd a thunk it?
No something is left out of that statement. It doesn't always indicate causality if there are other factors that could have affect a matter too.
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Old 04-08-2014, 02:50 PM   #10
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Fairplay View Post
It's been a long cold winter in Chicago the gangs didn't get out much the murder rate dropped.
That was my first thought too.
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Old 04-08-2014, 02:51 PM   #11
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BucEyedPea View Post
No something is left out of that statement. It doesn't always indicate causality if there are other factors that could have affect a matter too.
Correlation does not imply causality. That's all I'm saying. It's not like I made it up...
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Old 04-08-2014, 05:15 PM   #12
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Quote:
Originally Posted by vailpass View Post
Correlation does not imply causality. That's all I'm saying. It's not like I made it up...
but but, as aw pointed out, there is no correlation here...

the decline in the murder rate was an ongoing trend that predated the issuance of ccw permits...

not causality, not correlation, the premise of the op's headline is simply false...
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Old 04-08-2014, 07:10 PM   #13
vailpass vailpass is offline
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Originally Posted by go bowe View Post
but but, as aw pointed out, there is no correlation here...

the decline in the murder rate was an ongoing trend that predated the issuance of ccw permits...

not causality, not correlation, the premise of the op's headline is simply false...
Was responding to aw's post, but agreed...now am I free to continue defiling myself in preparation for my lady friend's arrival?
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Old 04-08-2014, 07:22 PM   #14
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Originally Posted by vailpass View Post
Was responding to aw's post, but agreed...now am I free to continue defiling myself in preparation for my lady friend's arrival?
only if she brings a friend...
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Old 04-08-2014, 10:17 PM   #15
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as a former Chicago-land resident
I think the CCW will help
But I think the numbers are reflecting the temperature - When the weather gets nice - watch out

People be gettin shot
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