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Old 06-05-2014, 10:28 PM  
Tribal Warfare Tribal Warfare is offline
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Paylor:How Alex Smith’s next contract could be affected by Colin Kaepernick’s

How Alex Smith’s next contract could be affected by Colin Kaepernick’s $126 million deal


San Francisco’s Colin Kaepernick went out of his way Wednesday to thank current Chiefs quarterback Alex Smith, the man whose job he usurped two years ago.

“I don’t think I would be at this point so quickly if he hadn’t been such a great mentor to me and helped me along with things,” Kaepernick, 26, said after news broke about his six-year, $126 million contract extension.

But it’s also easy to think Kaepernick may have returned the favor by setting the market for Smith, who is seeking a new deal of his own.

“If I represented Alex Smith,” said former agent Joel Corry, “I’d be telling the Chiefs that my numbers on where the quarterback market is and will be going is correct.”

Kaepernick’s extension is actually worth just $13 million guaranteed but includes roster bonuses that can push that number up. There are also de-escalators, according to media reports, and the contract is constructed in such a way that the 49ers could get out of the deal after a few years with minimal consequence.

Corry said the Chiefs might push for a similar structure, citing Kaepernick as a reference, though he suspects Smith’s agent, Tom Condon, would never go for it.

“If you ask me to take my agent hat off, I don’t think this deal is going to have any real impact on Alex Smith’s negotiation,” Corry said. “It’s two different (situations). The problem is, the Chiefs still aren’t going to want to want to pay him in that Matthew Stafford, Tony Romo, Jay Cutler range. He’s got the same problem Andy Dalton has.”

Like Dalton, Cincinnati’s quarterback, Smith is generally regarded as a second-tier quarterback in the same class as Stafford, Romo and Cutler, who are all making around $18 million per season.

That could prove to be a bit too rich for the Chiefs’ and Bengals’ liking, if that is indeed what Smith and Dalton — who will be free agents after the season — are asking for. Both teams also invested fifth-round draft picks in talented, developmental quarterbacks (Aaron Murray and A.J. McCarron) this year.

“Anything over $15 million a year on the average and $35 million in guarantees, the Chiefs should not want to do,” Corry said. “The problem is there’s nobody (making that) because the middle class (of quarterbacks) is gone. Matt Sanchez got cut. Matt Schaub got cut. You really have no middle class.”

This is one of the reasons the 49ers likely felt compelled to lock up Kaepernick, provided he can play well enough to keep the 49ers from extricating themselves from the deal.

“They don’t have a viable option,” Corry said. “Once they traded (Smith) away, they were all in on Kaepernick. They were like, ‘You’re the guy, it’s your ball and run with it.’ ”

Corry also noted that the 49ers could have waited a year to sign Kaepernick, but that might have cost them.

“They ran the risk of him going out and being Joe Flacco, where they win a Super Bowl and then he’s asking to be the highest-paid player in the league,” Corry said. “That’s just kind of the game you have to play with quarterbacks. If you have one that’s young and has a lot of potential, even if he hasn’t reached it, you’re going to have to overpay him.”

The Chiefs, on the other hand, may be willing to take their chances with Smith. Despite an 11-5 record last season, a tougher schedule and a younger supporting cast may conspire to make it difficult for Smith to duplicate his 2013 numbers, even with a respected offensive mind like Andy Reid calling the plays.

“I would tell him: ‘You want that money? Go out and justify it through your play this year,’ ” Corry said. “I’d gamble with him on that one. If he goes out and lights it up, that’s a nice problem to have because then you could always franchise him.”

Both the Chiefs and Smith have said there have been some discussions about a new contract. But Smith, who will make $7.5 million this season, has said he isn’t thinking about an extension and isn’t worried if he doesn’t get one before training camp starts.

“Smith kind of has a little bit of leverage too because KC gave up two second-round picks for him and you really don’t want to see someone walk after giving up two second-round picks,” Corry said. “But I don’t think Kansas City is going to be persuaded to make a substantial bump in their offer based on Kaepernick’s deal.”
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Old 06-06-2014, 11:55 AM   #16
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Originally Posted by Chiefnj2 View Post
Look at the first year of DV's offense. Everyone thought DV and Green were bums, it was a horrible trade, etc. Alex played pretty well the last half of the season and in the playoffs. It doesn't appear that he will be the limiting factor.

People will have better luck putting their faith in Smith than they will in the mythical "Don't pay him and draft a first round QB" legend.
So, Andy Reid is such a good QB coach that he helped Alex improve over the year...and we should give Alex Smith 18-20 million per year...disregarding the fact that if we drafted a talented QB and Andy Reid helped develop him, we could get similar output while saving 15 million per year that can be used to bolster the rest of the roster to try and make a run similar to the one SF, Sea and other teams with cheap quarterbacks and talent stacked teams have done.
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Old 06-06-2014, 11:58 AM   #17
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Originally Posted by jd1020 View Post
So you don't think hitting a wide open receiver for an easy TD would have made a difference in a 1 point game?

Interesting.

I don't remember anyone being within 10 ****ing yards of Gray on that pass. You don't have to be cute with the throw in that situation... just throw it right at him.
How many times do you think Alex Smith has thrown passes to Gray in practice?

My point is he is used to throwing that pass to Davis or Charles and the timing of the pass is based on the speed of the receiver.

I don't blame Alex for that pass because Davis or Charles would have scored on it and I bet he hasn't ever thrown that pass to a guy with substandard wheels.

There's a reason we drafted another RB with wheels...
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Old 06-06-2014, 12:00 PM   #18
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Originally Posted by Chief Roundup View Post
Never happened.
You are right-it was worse than I stated.

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7 games in which Alex did not throw a TD. So 43% of the games Alex started he could not manage to throw a TD to help his team. So actually much higher than a quarter of the season in which I stated. My bad.

If a top QB is worth 20 million a year and Alex is only effective 43% of the time-that puts his number at 8,600,000 per year. Pretty much exactly were he is getting paid for next year. His ave salary is 8,416,667. So Alex is already getting more than what he is worth. His base is 7.5 mil with 500k in incentives. But since he got 9 million up front it pushes it to 8.4 according to Sports Illustrated.

The incentive is to lock him up-fear of the future-that we can't find a QB that is effective at least 57% of the games he starts while being paid 8.4 million to not throw TD's in 7 games including the last two losses to the Colts and Chargers.

Smart money is to let him finish this contract in which he will be slightly overpaid. And then Franchise him-if he does improve or god help us-we actually win a playoff game.
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Old 06-06-2014, 12:00 PM   #19
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Originally Posted by BossChief View Post
How many times do you think Alex Smith has thrown passes to Gray in practice?

My point is he is used to throwing that pass to Davis or Charles and the timing of the pass is based on the speed of the receiver.

I don't blame Alex for that pass because Davis or Charles would have scored on it and I bet he hasn't ever thrown that pass to a guy with substandard wheels.

There's a reason we drafted another RB with wheels...
You don't put any blame on a guy missing a receiver open by a mile and a half?

Holy shit...

Even Alex wants that one back, but the fans.... "well, he just didn't have enough practice throwing to Gray."
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Old 06-06-2014, 12:05 PM   #20
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Originally Posted by MahiMike View Post
So 44 points is garbage now? That's the most points this franchise has ever scored in a playoff game. Come on man.
Where did I state that was garbage-I stated Alex missed a wide open receiver that would have won the game. Yes he was great the first half-much better than all of us hoped-but when the game was on the line-he failed. No it was not ALL on him-I even put the D was gassed and giving big plays.

That easy wide open TD would have changed the game.
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Old 06-06-2014, 12:06 PM   #21
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Originally Posted by jd1020 View Post
You don't put any blame on a guy missing a receiver open by a mile and a half?

Holy shit...

Even Alex wants that one back, but the fans.... "well, he just didn't have enough practice throwing to Gray."
yep exactly!!
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Old 06-06-2014, 12:07 PM   #22
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Originally Posted by Halfcan View Post
You are right-it was worse than I stated.

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7 games in which Alex did not throw a TD. So 43% of the games Alex started he could not manage to throw a TD to help his team. So actually much higher than a quarter of the season in which I stated. My bad.

If a top QB is worth 20 million a year and Alex is only effective 43% of the time-that puts his number at 8,600,000 per year. Pretty much exactly were he is getting paid for next year. His ave salary is 8,416,667. So Alex is already getting more than what he is worth. His base is 7.5 mil with 500k in incentives. But since he got 9 million up front it pushes it to 8.4 according to Sports Illustrated.

The incentive is to lock him up-fear of the future-that we can't find a QB that is effective at least 57% of the games he starts while being paid 8.4 million to not throw TD's in 7 games including the last two losses to the Colts and Chargers.

Smart money is to let him finish this contract in which he will be slightly overpaid. And then Franchise him-if he does improve or god help us-we actually win a playoff game.
He was in shorts and a ballcap for the last San Diego game...
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Old 06-06-2014, 12:16 PM   #23
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He was in shorts and a ballcap for the last San Diego game...
So he was not paid $525,000 to hold the clipboard?? Yes it was not his choice to sit- but he was still paid for it which further changes his numbers in his favor. Fact is he added nothing to that game but was still paid for it, much like a lot of the chiefs players last year. That is part of it. Alex has made what 57 million so far-so asking him to prove he can do better than not throwing a TD in 6 of the 15 games he started (40%) ineffective rate including one game on the bench and being ineffective in the last half of a horrible playoff loss-is not asking too much while he will still be cashing a fat 8 million check.
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Old 06-06-2014, 12:22 PM   #24
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Originally Posted by jd1020 View Post
You don't put any blame on a guy missing a receiver open by a mile and a half?

Holy shit...

Even Alex wants that one back, but the fans.... "well, he just didn't have enough practice throwing to Gray."
I'm sorry that you don't know how it works, but the starting quarterback NEVER takes reps with third string players in practice. Well, almost never anyway. Especially before a playoff game. The WCO is almost strictly based on timing throws...meaning the quarterback has to anticipate the break and throw to a spot...which is what he did.

He threw it to the perfect spot that the guys he practices with would get to for an easy score.

It's just a shame that we lost our top 2 running backs in the game and Alex had zero timing with Gray.

Deanthony Thomas would have scored on that play, too.
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Old 06-06-2014, 12:26 PM   #25
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I'm sorry that you don't know how it works, but the starting quarterback NEVER takes reps with third string players in practice. Well, almost never anyway. Especially before a playoff game. The WCO is almost strictly based on timing throws...meaning the quarterback has to anticipate the break and throw to a spot...which is what he did.

He threw it to the perfect spot that the guys he practices with would get to for an easy score.

It's just a shame that we lost our top 2 running backs in the game and Alex had zero timing with Gray.

Deanthony Thomas would have scored on that play, too.
I'm sorry you are stupid enough to believe that missing a guy as WIDE OPEN as Gray has nothing to do with the throw.

Alex sees it. You dont.

Give my condolences to your immediate family.
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Old 06-06-2014, 12:27 PM   #26
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Originally Posted by BossChief View Post
I'm sorry that you don't know how it works, but the starting quarterback NEVER takes reps with third string players in practice. Well, almost never anyway. Especially before a playoff game. The WCO is almost strictly based on timing throws...meaning the quarterback has to anticipate the break and throw to a spot...which is what he did.

He threw it to the perfect spot that the guys he practices with would get to for an easy score.

It's just a shame that we lost our top 2 running backs in the game and Alex had zero timing with Gray.

Deanthony Thomas would have scored on that play, too.

So even though the guy is wide open - you throw it waaayyy ahead of him and hope he is fast enough and the timing is right to make the completion- even though Gray was close enough and wide open enough to hit him right in the freaking numbers???

Gray sucks!!
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Old 06-06-2014, 01:25 PM   #27
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Originally Posted by jd1020 View Post
You don't put any blame on a guy missing a receiver open by a mile and a half?

Holy shit...

Even Alex wants that one back, but the fans.... "well, he just didn't have enough practice throwing to Gray."
And IF he had that one back, he'd have completed it knowing what he knows now. However, as it happened, in real time, he only knew how it was supposed to go and he threw to the spot where Gray should have been. It's all based on timing, especially that route. Sure, Smith should get some of the blame, but he did as he does in practice every day.
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Old 06-06-2014, 01:41 PM   #28
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You don't put any blame on a guy missing a receiver open by a mile and a half?
I put more blame on the 3rd string RB who slowed down to look for the ball and ended up not having enough time to recover to make the catch.
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Old 06-06-2014, 01:50 PM   #29
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Old 06-06-2014, 01:57 PM   #30
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I put more blame on the 3rd string RB who slowed down to look for the ball and ended up not having enough time to recover to make the catch.
That's not what happened at all.
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