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Old 06-06-2014, 11:21 AM  
Cochise Cochise is offline
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Scientist confesses he made up polar bear population estimates

http://www.americanthinker.com/blog/...estimates.html



Scientist confesses he made up polar bear population estimates
Thomas Lifson
May 31, 2014

The greatest scientific fraud in history is slowly but surely unraveling, and the breadth of the corruption revealed is stunning. As any good con man knows, and emotional appeal is necessary, and the warmists found their cuddly-looking icon of endangerment in the polar bear, an animal frequently chosen as stuffed toys for children to hug. Pictures of polar bears on ice floes, presumably doomed to death by drowning as the Arctic ice disappeared, were used to tug on the heartstrings of adults and children alike, in order to scare them into willingly handing over power over their economic destiny to global mandarins who would reduce their standard of living.

But it was necessary to come up with “scientific” estimates of polar bear populations that showed them in danger. With all the billions of dollars available for global warming-related research, and the level of peer pressure that money generates, it wasn’t that difficult.


Polar bear populations became the centerpiece of the effort to fight global warming due to claims that melting polar ice caps would cause the bears to become endangered in the near future. Years ago some scientists predicted the Arctic would be virtually ice free by now.

Polar bears became the first species listed under the Endangered Species Act because they could potentially be harmed by global warming. But some recent studies have found that some polar bear subpopulations have actually flourished in recent years.


As with the hockey stick graph and many other elements of the concocted story, honest scientists working in the finest tradition of skeptical scientific inquiry, started to unravel fuzzy numbers and lies. One such hero is polar bear scientist Dr. Susan Crockford, who publishes the website Polar Bear Science. In it she documents how a scientist responsible for an alarmist lowball estimate of polar bear population is backing away from numbers that she has been questioning:

Quote:
Last week (May 22), I received an unsolicited email from Dr. Dag Vongraven, the current chairman of the IUCN [International Union for the Conservation of Nature – TL] Polar Bear Specialist Group (PBSG).

The email from Vongraven began this way:

“Dr. Crockford

Below you’ll find a footnote that will accompany a total polar bear population size range in the circumpolar polar bear action plan that we are currently drafting together with the Parties to the 1973 Agreement. This might keep you blogging for a day or two.”

It appears the PBSG have come to the realization that public outrage (or just confusion) is brewing over their global population estimates and some damage control is perhaps called for. Their solution — bury a statement of clarification within their next official missive (which I have commented upon here).

Instead of issuing a press release to clarify matters to the public immediately, Vongraven decided he would let me take care of informing the public that this global estimate may not be what it seems.
Wow! Burying the news in a footnote and letting a critic know instead of issuing a press release. That is certainly a signal. Here’s the news:

Here is the statement that the PBSG proposes to insert as a footnote in their forthcoming Circumpolar Polar Bear Action Plan draft:

Quote:
“As part of past status reports, the PBSG has traditionally estimated a range for the total number of polar bears in the circumpolar Arctic. Since 2005, this range has been 20-25,000. It is important to realize that this range never has been an estimate of total abundance in a scientific sense, but simply a qualified guess given to satisfy public demand. It is also important to note that even though we have scientifically valid estimates for a majority of the subpopulations, some are dated. Furthermore, there are no abundance estimates for the Arctic Basin, East Greenland, and the Russian subpopulations.Consequently, there is either no, or only rudimentary, knowledge to support guesses about the possible abundance of polar bears in approximately half the areas they occupy. Thus, the range given for total global population should be viewed with great caution as it cannot be used to assess population trend over the long term.”
“A guess to satisfy public demand” but wrapped in the prestige of settled science.
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Old 06-06-2014, 11:23 AM   #2
planetdoc planetdoc is offline
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too much of scientific research (including those in healthcare) have inadequate peer-review, are fradulent, and have not been reproduced.
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Old 06-06-2014, 11:36 AM   #3
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Make up some numbers and write a paper
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Old 06-06-2014, 11:44 AM   #4
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The number of polar bears, and scientific (or unscientific) studies regarding same, aren't exactly evidence of climate change, or lack thereof.
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Old 06-06-2014, 12:03 PM   #5
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Quote:
Polar bear populations became the centerpiece of the effort to fight global warming due to claims that melting polar ice caps would cause the bears to become endangered in the near future.
No they didn't. That's an incredible exaggeration...

The only reason this is an issue, is because throughout the past when the media has produced global warming articles, they very often have accompanied it with the iconic bear on a melting hunk of ice pics. Just like you did in this thread. But that was the media's doing. Not scientists.

This was actually explained away 7 or 8 years ago. Actual polar bear experts corrected the declining polar bear population myth then. Not sure why it's being revisited now.
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Old 06-06-2014, 12:09 PM   #6
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Fish View Post
This was actually explained away 7 or 8 years ago. Actual polar bear experts corrected the declining polar bear population myth then. Not sure why it's being revisited now.
It may have been disproven some time ago, but the article concerns the behind the myth admitting it was made up.
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Old 06-06-2014, 12:18 PM   #7
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One more example of why the majority of people think the global warming crowd is a collection a freaking loons.
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Old 06-06-2014, 12:20 PM   #8
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Well there's no denying that there are climate change alarmists out there, that have made shit up and lied to support their cause. There always have been. But that doesn't negate the validity of climate change.
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Old 06-06-2014, 12:25 PM   #9
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Fish View Post
Well there's no denying that there are climate change alarmists out there, that have made shit up and lied to support their cause. There always have been. But that doesn't negate the validity of climate change.
Perhaps, but most people really don't worry about it much.

http://www.gallup.com/poll/167843/cl...top-worry.aspx
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Old 06-06-2014, 12:41 PM   #10
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Bwana View Post
One more example of why the majority of people think the global warming crowd is a collection a freaking loons.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Bwana View Post
Perhaps, but most people really don't worry about it much.

http://www.gallup.com/poll/167843/cl...top-worry.aspx

Which, really, is the problem. Never in my memory has there been a greater disconnect between scientific beliefs/understanding and public beliefs. The vast, vast, VAST majority of scientists who have looked at it agree the climate change is occurring.

http://climate.nasa.gov/scientific-consensus

And yet somehow people want to write it all off to some kind of liberal, tree-hugging lunacy.



http://www.theguardian.com/environme...haracteristics
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Old 06-06-2014, 12:46 PM   #11
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Quote:
Originally Posted by planetdoc View Post
too much of scientific research (including those in healthcare) have inadequate peer-review, are fradulent, and have not been reproduced.
you've hinted that you're fairly educated. not in academia? yeah, try getting a journal article through peer-review these days. while there are certainly times when it's not rigorous enough (especially if you happen to know the right people, aka, those who are doing the reviewing OR are the editor themselves), for the most part, VERY rigorous.
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Old 06-06-2014, 12:49 PM   #12
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Amnorix View Post
Which, really, is the problem. Never in my memory has there been a greater disconnect between scientific beliefs/understanding and public beliefs. The vast, vast, VAST majority of scientists who have looked at it agree the climate change is occurring.

http://climate.nasa.gov/scientific-consensus

And yet somehow people want to write it all off to some kind of liberal, tree-hugging lunacy.



http://www.theguardian.com/environme...haracteristics
How many agree on the cause? Not picking here just curious. I tend to believe the climate is changing and will continue to change just as it always has done. Doesn't matter much what we here in the good ol USA do.
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Old 06-06-2014, 12:53 PM   #13
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Amnorix View Post
Which, really, is the problem. Never in my memory has there been a greater disconnect between scientific beliefs/understanding and public beliefs. The vast, vast, VAST majority of scientists who have looked at it agree the climate change is occurring.

http://climate.nasa.gov/scientific-consensus

And yet somehow people want to write it all off to some kind of liberal, tree-hugging lunacy.



http://www.theguardian.com/environme...haracteristics
The issue is the cause. I think we can all agree that Climate Change is occurring, however why that is exactly is what keeps people skeptical.
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Old 06-06-2014, 12:53 PM   #14
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Originally Posted by 2bikemike View Post
How many agree on the cause? Not picking here just curious. I tend to believe the climate is changing and will continue to change just as it always has done. Doesn't matter much what we here in the good ol USA do.
Pretty much how i feel. The Earth is gonna do its thing, with or with out us.
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Old 06-06-2014, 12:59 PM   #15
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Part of the reason for that vast disconnect, is that there are many entities contributing millions of dollars to promote climate change denial. Over half a billion dollars in 7 years, to encourage this idea of "So what?" Some of them are (surprise) energy corporations that currently lead the world in profits.

Quote:
The largest, most-consistent money fueling the climate denial movement are a number of well-funded conservative foundations built with so-called "dark money," or concealed donations, according to an analysis released Friday afternoon.

The study, by Drexel University environmental sociologist Robert Brulle, is the first academic effort to probe the organizational underpinnings and funding behind the climate denial movement.

It found that the amount of money flowing through third-party, pass-through foundations like DonorsTrust and Donors Capital, whose funding cannot be traced, has risen dramatically over the past five years.

In all, 140 foundations funneled $558 million to almost 100 climate denial organizations from 2003 to 2010.

[...]

Brulle developed a list of 118 influential climate denial organizations in the United States. He then coded data on philanthropic funding for each organization, combining information from the Foundation Center, a database of global philanthropy, with financial data submitted by organizations to the Internal Revenue Service.

According to Brulle, the largest and most consistent funders where a number of conservative foundations promoting "ultra-free-market ideas" in many realms, among them the Searle Freedom Trust, the John Williams Pope Foundation, the Howard Charitable Foundation and the Sarah Scaife Foundation.

Another key finding: From 2003 to 2007, Koch Affiliated Foundations and the ExxonMobil Foundation were "heavily involved" in funding climate change denial efforts. But Exxon hasn't made a publically traceable contribution since 2008, and Koch's efforts dramatically declined, Brulle said.

Coinciding with a decline in traceable funding, Brulle found a dramatic rise in the cash flowing to denial organizations from DonorsTrust, a donor-directed foundation whose funders cannot be traced. This one foundation, the assessment found, now accounts for 25 percent of all traceable foundation funding used by organizations promoting the systematic denial of climate change.

http://www.scientificamerican.com/ar...denial-effort/
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