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Old 06-06-2014, 11:21 AM  
Cochise Cochise is offline
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Scientist confesses he made up polar bear population estimates

http://www.americanthinker.com/blog/...estimates.html



Scientist confesses he made up polar bear population estimates
Thomas Lifson
May 31, 2014

The greatest scientific fraud in history is slowly but surely unraveling, and the breadth of the corruption revealed is stunning. As any good con man knows, and emotional appeal is necessary, and the warmists found their cuddly-looking icon of endangerment in the polar bear, an animal frequently chosen as stuffed toys for children to hug. Pictures of polar bears on ice floes, presumably doomed to death by drowning as the Arctic ice disappeared, were used to tug on the heartstrings of adults and children alike, in order to scare them into willingly handing over power over their economic destiny to global mandarins who would reduce their standard of living.

But it was necessary to come up with “scientific” estimates of polar bear populations that showed them in danger. With all the billions of dollars available for global warming-related research, and the level of peer pressure that money generates, it wasn’t that difficult.


Polar bear populations became the centerpiece of the effort to fight global warming due to claims that melting polar ice caps would cause the bears to become endangered in the near future. Years ago some scientists predicted the Arctic would be virtually ice free by now.

Polar bears became the first species listed under the Endangered Species Act because they could potentially be harmed by global warming. But some recent studies have found that some polar bear subpopulations have actually flourished in recent years.


As with the hockey stick graph and many other elements of the concocted story, honest scientists working in the finest tradition of skeptical scientific inquiry, started to unravel fuzzy numbers and lies. One such hero is polar bear scientist Dr. Susan Crockford, who publishes the website Polar Bear Science. In it she documents how a scientist responsible for an alarmist lowball estimate of polar bear population is backing away from numbers that she has been questioning:

Quote:
Last week (May 22), I received an unsolicited email from Dr. Dag Vongraven, the current chairman of the IUCN [International Union for the Conservation of Nature – TL] Polar Bear Specialist Group (PBSG).

The email from Vongraven began this way:

“Dr. Crockford

Below you’ll find a footnote that will accompany a total polar bear population size range in the circumpolar polar bear action plan that we are currently drafting together with the Parties to the 1973 Agreement. This might keep you blogging for a day or two.”

It appears the PBSG have come to the realization that public outrage (or just confusion) is brewing over their global population estimates and some damage control is perhaps called for. Their solution — bury a statement of clarification within their next official missive (which I have commented upon here).

Instead of issuing a press release to clarify matters to the public immediately, Vongraven decided he would let me take care of informing the public that this global estimate may not be what it seems.
Wow! Burying the news in a footnote and letting a critic know instead of issuing a press release. That is certainly a signal. Here’s the news:

Here is the statement that the PBSG proposes to insert as a footnote in their forthcoming Circumpolar Polar Bear Action Plan draft:

Quote:
“As part of past status reports, the PBSG has traditionally estimated a range for the total number of polar bears in the circumpolar Arctic. Since 2005, this range has been 20-25,000. It is important to realize that this range never has been an estimate of total abundance in a scientific sense, but simply a qualified guess given to satisfy public demand. It is also important to note that even though we have scientifically valid estimates for a majority of the subpopulations, some are dated. Furthermore, there are no abundance estimates for the Arctic Basin, East Greenland, and the Russian subpopulations.Consequently, there is either no, or only rudimentary, knowledge to support guesses about the possible abundance of polar bears in approximately half the areas they occupy. Thus, the range given for total global population should be viewed with great caution as it cannot be used to assess population trend over the long term.”
“A guess to satisfy public demand” but wrapped in the prestige of settled science.
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Old 06-06-2014, 01:05 PM   #16
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Amnorix View Post
Which, really, is the problem. Never in my memory has there been a greater disconnect between scientific beliefs/understanding and public beliefs. The vast, vast, VAST majority of scientists who have looked at it agree the climate change is occurring.

http://climate.nasa.gov/scientific-consensus

And yet somehow people want to write it all off to some kind of liberal, tree-hugging lunacy.



http://www.theguardian.com/environme...haracteristics
How many times does this idiocy need to be debunked? Jesus. That 97% number is COMPLETELY meaningless in the context you are trying to apply it.
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Old 06-06-2014, 01:05 PM   #17
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Amnorix View Post
Which, really, is the problem. Never in my memory has there been a greater disconnect between scientific beliefs/understanding and public beliefs. The vast, vast, VAST majority of scientists who have looked at it agree the climate change is occurring.

http://climate.nasa.gov/scientific-consensus

And yet somehow people want to write it all off to some kind of liberal, tree-hugging lunacy.



http://www.theguardian.com/environme...haracteristics
So tell me. Where does the 97% of scientists agree figure come from? It's just as much a myth as the polar bear extinction myth. Yet you have no problem passing it along as fact. Do you forward chain emails too?
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Old 06-06-2014, 01:09 PM   #18
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The climate has never changed in billions of years until America became an industrial power.
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Old 06-06-2014, 01:17 PM   #19
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Quote:
Originally Posted by 2bikemike View Post
How many agree on the cause? Not picking here just curious. I tend to believe the climate is changing and will continue to change just as it always has done. Doesn't matter much what we here in the good ol USA do.

I agree that there may well be room to debate to what degree HUMAN factors are causing climate change. I don't know that that is well settled.

But many seem to think either that climate change is not occurring, or that scientists aren't pretty dang sure that it is. In fact, the overwhelming majority ARE in agreement that climate change is occurring.

Which means, if nothing else, that we should be doing things like building that...thing....gate, whatever...in New York harbor or wherever, because, you know, there's like eleventy billion dollars worth of property and businesses that will be affected if the water level goes up by a couple feet. Even if you can't agree on WHY, you can agree on some "WHAT DO WE DO NOW" in terms of mitigating the effect.
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Old 06-06-2014, 01:17 PM   #20
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Amnorix View Post
Which, really, is the problem. Never in my memory has there been a greater disconnect between scientific beliefs/understanding and public beliefs. The vast, vast, VAST majority of scientists who have looked at it agree the climate change is occurring.

http://climate.nasa.gov/scientific-consensus

And yet somehow people want to write it all off to some kind of liberal, tree-hugging lunacy.



http://www.theguardian.com/environme...haracteristics
In other news, the Infiniti dealer definitely thinks I should bring my car back to them every 3,000 miles so they can do a few hundred dollars of whatever to it. There is probably a great deal of consensus among dealerships on that.
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Old 06-06-2014, 01:20 PM   #21
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Amnorix View Post
I agree that there may well be room to debate to what degree HUMAN factors are causing climate change. I don't know that that is well settled.

But many seem to think either that climate change is not occurring, or that scientists aren't pretty dang sure that it is. In fact, the overwhelming majority ARE in agreement that climate change is occurring.

Which means, if nothing else, that we should be doing things like building that...thing....gate, whatever...in New York harbor or wherever, because, you know, there's like eleventy billion dollars worth of property and businesses that will be affected if the water level goes up by a couple feet. Even if you can't agree on WHY, you can agree on some "WHAT DO WE DO NOW" in terms of mitigating the effect.
But can you see how things like the "consensus project" are bunk? If you couch the survey questions in similar terms I guarantee the general public will agree that "climate change" is a fact. You have two totally different questions being asked and then an attempt to conflate the two.

97%+ of the people here in the DC forum agree that climate change is happening... that should tell you something.
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Old 06-06-2014, 01:21 PM   #22
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Quote:
Originally Posted by AustinChief View Post
How many times does this idiocy need to be debunked? Jesus. That 97% number is COMPLETELY meaningless in the context you are trying to apply it.

Quick link? Maybe I've been through this discussion before, but if so I don't remember...

The link does not, of course, have to be to a CP site.

I specifically note that IF you think I'm saying 97% of scientists think that humans are the CAUSE of climate change, then I don't agree with that. I think it's 97% agree climate change is occurring, regardless of cause. If there is a percentage that think human factors are the cause, then I don't know what it is (but would be interested in seeing that).
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Old 06-06-2014, 01:21 PM   #23
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Originally Posted by 2bikemike View Post
How many agree on the cause? Not picking here just curious. I tend to believe the climate is changing and will continue to change just as it always has done. Doesn't matter much what we here in the good ol USA do.
The real concern is the current acceleration of many aspects of climate change. Climate change has definitely always happened. What matters is that the current acceleration of climate change is very different than normal cycles we have evidence for in in the past.

The confidence level of the causes is greater than you think.
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Old 06-06-2014, 01:23 PM   #24
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Cochise View Post
In other news, the Infiniti dealer definitely thinks I should bring my car back to them every 3,000 miles so they can do a few hundred dollars of whatever to it. There is probably a great deal of consensus among dealerships on that.

I'm pretty confident that 97% of scientists studying this don't have the same economic incentive to say that climate change is occurring that your Infiniti dealer does.

Furthermore, have you MET many scientists? They're the polar opposite of a car salesman. By definition a car salesman will say anything to get you to buy the car. Most scientists are far more focused on "good science" and universal truths and proving stuff one way or the other, regardless of external factors. Not that they are immune to economic incentives altogether, of course, but still, not remotely the same.
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Old 06-06-2014, 01:24 PM   #25
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Old 06-06-2014, 01:25 PM   #26
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Amnorix View Post
Quick link? Maybe I've been through this discussion before, but if so I don't remember...

The link does not, of course, have to be to a CP site.

I specifically note that IF you think I'm saying 97% of scientists think that humans are the CAUSE of climate change, then I don't agree with that. I think it's 97% agree climate change is occurring, regardless of cause. If there is a percentage that think human factors are the cause, then I don't know what it is (but would be interested in seeing that).
I think I answered this in my last post but if you want a "link" it was a poll I ran here in DC specifically to show how the wording of the question completely changes the outcome.

I don;t think you are claiming that 97% of scientists are crazy alarmists or anything. I am simply stating that the 45% figure is bullshit.

You are basically asking scientists if they believe in climate change and that there is SOME human influence. (it should be closer to 99.99%) BUT then you ask the public if humans are the sole or major cause for climate change. (at least that is how most people take it when asked)
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Old 06-06-2014, 01:28 PM   #27
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I'm pretty confident that 97% of scientists studying this don't have the same economic incentive to say that climate change is occurring that your Infiniti dealer does.
BULL

SHIT
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Old 06-06-2014, 01:29 PM   #28
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Originally Posted by Amnorix View Post
I'm pretty confident that 97% of scientists studying this don't have the same economic incentive to say that climate change is occurring that your Infiniti dealer does.

Furthermore, have you MET many scientists? They're the polar opposite of a car salesman. By definition a car salesman will say anything to get you to buy the car. Most scientists are far more focused on "good science" and universal truths and proving stuff one way or the other, regardless of external factors. Not that they are immune to economic incentives altogether, of course, but still, not remotely the same.
Sadly, this isn't completely true anymore (if ever). Recent studies have shown RAMPANT "fudging" of data in the scientific community. There was a big psych study that addressed this. I'll go find it if you want, but basically it showed an OVERWHELMING amount of "bad science" simply to support a preconceived idea. The amazing part was not just scientists pointing out how much their colleagues "cheat" but also how many admitted to it themselves.
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Old 06-06-2014, 01:30 PM   #29
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Obviously any non-Rain Man poll is subject to criticism.

What is of particular concern to me is that people who don't know science from Scientology are adamant that human activity can't possibly be having an impact. I really have no idea why they take that stance. Some seem to argue that it's unbelievable hubris to believe that humans can affect the world so much, while others seem to want to bury our heads in the sand because any steps we take may hurt American economic competitiveness (a position that I can at least understand).

It's amazing to me that this topic generates so much passionate hatred by...conservatives? ...not even sure what to call the anti-climate change crowd.
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Old 06-06-2014, 01:33 PM
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Old 06-06-2014, 01:33 PM   #30
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Originally Posted by ptlyon View Post
BULL

SHIT

What does the Crop Science Society of America really gain from "pushing" that climate change is influenced by human factors to as significant degree? The Society for Industrial and Applied Mathematics?

http://www.aaas.org/sites/default/fi...te_letter1.pdf


Do you think all scientific findings should be ignored because maybe someone somewhere has an economic incentive involved? Do you also believe that 9/11 was a vast conspiracy? That Sandy Hook didn't happen?

Live in your little cocoon of paranoia if you like. Doesn't matter to me.
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