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Old 06-06-2014, 11:21 AM  
Cochise Cochise is offline
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Scientist confesses he made up polar bear population estimates

http://www.americanthinker.com/blog/...estimates.html



Scientist confesses he made up polar bear population estimates
Thomas Lifson
May 31, 2014

The greatest scientific fraud in history is slowly but surely unraveling, and the breadth of the corruption revealed is stunning. As any good con man knows, and emotional appeal is necessary, and the warmists found their cuddly-looking icon of endangerment in the polar bear, an animal frequently chosen as stuffed toys for children to hug. Pictures of polar bears on ice floes, presumably doomed to death by drowning as the Arctic ice disappeared, were used to tug on the heartstrings of adults and children alike, in order to scare them into willingly handing over power over their economic destiny to global mandarins who would reduce their standard of living.

But it was necessary to come up with “scientific” estimates of polar bear populations that showed them in danger. With all the billions of dollars available for global warming-related research, and the level of peer pressure that money generates, it wasn’t that difficult.


Polar bear populations became the centerpiece of the effort to fight global warming due to claims that melting polar ice caps would cause the bears to become endangered in the near future. Years ago some scientists predicted the Arctic would be virtually ice free by now.

Polar bears became the first species listed under the Endangered Species Act because they could potentially be harmed by global warming. But some recent studies have found that some polar bear subpopulations have actually flourished in recent years.


As with the hockey stick graph and many other elements of the concocted story, honest scientists working in the finest tradition of skeptical scientific inquiry, started to unravel fuzzy numbers and lies. One such hero is polar bear scientist Dr. Susan Crockford, who publishes the website Polar Bear Science. In it she documents how a scientist responsible for an alarmist lowball estimate of polar bear population is backing away from numbers that she has been questioning:

Quote:
Last week (May 22), I received an unsolicited email from Dr. Dag Vongraven, the current chairman of the IUCN [International Union for the Conservation of Nature – TL] Polar Bear Specialist Group (PBSG).

The email from Vongraven began this way:

“Dr. Crockford

Below you’ll find a footnote that will accompany a total polar bear population size range in the circumpolar polar bear action plan that we are currently drafting together with the Parties to the 1973 Agreement. This might keep you blogging for a day or two.”

It appears the PBSG have come to the realization that public outrage (or just confusion) is brewing over their global population estimates and some damage control is perhaps called for. Their solution — bury a statement of clarification within their next official missive (which I have commented upon here).

Instead of issuing a press release to clarify matters to the public immediately, Vongraven decided he would let me take care of informing the public that this global estimate may not be what it seems.
Wow! Burying the news in a footnote and letting a critic know instead of issuing a press release. That is certainly a signal. Here’s the news:

Here is the statement that the PBSG proposes to insert as a footnote in their forthcoming Circumpolar Polar Bear Action Plan draft:

Quote:
“As part of past status reports, the PBSG has traditionally estimated a range for the total number of polar bears in the circumpolar Arctic. Since 2005, this range has been 20-25,000. It is important to realize that this range never has been an estimate of total abundance in a scientific sense, but simply a qualified guess given to satisfy public demand. It is also important to note that even though we have scientifically valid estimates for a majority of the subpopulations, some are dated. Furthermore, there are no abundance estimates for the Arctic Basin, East Greenland, and the Russian subpopulations.Consequently, there is either no, or only rudimentary, knowledge to support guesses about the possible abundance of polar bears in approximately half the areas they occupy. Thus, the range given for total global population should be viewed with great caution as it cannot be used to assess population trend over the long term.”
“A guess to satisfy public demand” but wrapped in the prestige of settled science.
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Old 06-07-2014, 02:25 PM   #61
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BCD View Post
I don't argue climate change. It's real.

I just don't believe humans are causing it.

Who changed the climate that started the Ice Age?
Why would you think changes occurring over a period of decades have the same causes as changes happening over a periods of tens of thousands of years?
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Old 06-07-2014, 02:25 PM   #62
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HAHA. OUCH that's has GOT to sting a little.

Funny that when you look at the same data with a different subjective view you get strikingly different results.

I would wager that if you ran a new study today and asked the public if the most recent IPCC "study" on climate was correct (or even less alarmists than it needs to be) you'd get something close to 30% or more agreement. I doubt the scientific community would reach HALF that.
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Old 06-07-2014, 02:27 PM   #63
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Quote:
Originally Posted by AustinChief View Post
HAHA. OUCH that's has GOT to sting a little.

Funny that when you look at the same data with a different subjective view you get strikingly different results.

I would wager that if you ran a new study today and asked the public if the most recent IPCC "study" on climate was correct (or even less alarmists than it needs to be) you'd get something close to 30% or more agreement. I doubt the scientific community would reach HALF that.
You thinks that 85% of climate scientists dispute the major findings of the IPCC report?
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Old 06-07-2014, 02:38 PM   #64
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Quote:
Originally Posted by cdcox View Post
You thinks that 85% of climate scientists dispute the major findings of the IPCC report?
Absolutely. The IPCC report stated that humans were the DOMINANT cause of all global warming since 1950. I hope you realize how utterly ridiculous that statement is. Let's be clear here... they are not saying any deviation from what the temperature would have been. They are stating all warming. Period.

So yes I think that 85% of scientists would take a far less drastic view of things.
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Old 06-07-2014, 02:40 PM   #65
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Originally Posted by cdcox View Post
Why would you think changes occurring over a period of decades have the same causes as changes happening over a periods of tens of thousands of years?
Link.
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Old 06-07-2014, 02:51 PM   #66
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97% of scientists agree that the Sun revolves around the Earth except that heretic Earth-centric denier Nicolaus Coperincus!

97% of scientists agree that while the Earth revolves around the Sun it is a perfect circle, only that idiot Johannes Kepler thinks that it is actually an ellipse. I mean who are you going to believe Galileo and Descartes or some mad German in Prague?
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Old 06-07-2014, 02:58 PM   #67
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Quote:
Originally Posted by AustinChief View Post
HAHA. OUCH that's has GOT to sting a little.

Funny that when you look at the same data with a different subjective view you get strikingly different results.

I would wager that if you ran a new study today and asked the public if the most recent IPCC "study" on climate was correct (or even less alarmists than it needs to be) you'd get something close to 30% or more agreement. I doubt the scientific community would reach HALF that.
See post #59. It's false and has been retracted.
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Old 06-07-2014, 03:05 PM   #68
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Fish View Post
That Peiser study that the graphic and articles are based on? That author has since retracted his statement. Here's what he said about it:
Strange some think that tragic events are gods punishment for our behavior others think climate change is earths punishment for our behavior. Seems to be a pattern here~
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Old 06-07-2014, 03:18 PM   #69
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Originally Posted by AustinChief View Post
Absolutely. The IPCC report stated that humans were the DOMINANT cause of all global warming since 1950. I hope you realize how utterly ridiculous that statement is. Let's be clear here... they are not saying any deviation from what the temperature would have been. They are stating all warming. Period.

So yes I think that 85% of scientists would take a far less drastic view of things.
Ok, here figure 10.19 from the 2013 IPCC report. It shows the attribution of various natural and anthropogenic causes to climate change. It includes four different studies, that basically come to the same conclusion. Their attributions are able to reproduced the actual temperature variations to a high degree. This is the basis of the statement in the IPCC report. If 85% of climate scientists disagree with this conclusion, where are the studies that attribute most of the warming to natural causes? Surly if 85% of climate scientists disagree with this statement, there are (85/15)*4 = 23 studies that attribute the warming to natural causes. Chapter 10 of the IPCC report has over 70 contributing authors. So where is the list of (85/15)*70 = 396 climate scientists who attribute warming since 1950 to natural causes? Each should have dozens of publications in the climate field. Where are the thousands of scientific papers that attribute warming since the 1950s to natural causes?
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Old 06-07-2014, 03:21 PM   #70
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Fish View Post
See post #59. It's false and has been retracted.
No. No in fact it hasn't. He retracted one POINT of his critique not the entire critique. He still feels that the 97% figure isn't accurate. But that is not the point. Did you bother actually reading the article? The graphic/Peiser study was only one part.

Again, the 97% figure is likely to be completely accurate if you throw a wide enough net. Look at the various methodologies involved in getting that figure and you SHOULD see what I mean. They don't exactly use rigorous, strict criteria for including people in the "97% pile".
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Old 06-07-2014, 03:23 PM   #71
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Originally Posted by digger View Post
Link.


http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedi...emperature.png
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Old 06-07-2014, 03:35 PM   #72
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I didn't know that we were able to record thing that far back. Must be Mr Sherman's Wayback machine.
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Old 06-07-2014, 03:37 PM   #73
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Originally Posted by digger View Post
I didn't know that we were able to record thing that far back. Must be Mr Sherman's Wayback machine.
Maybe the ice ages didn't even happen? No one was around to record anything.
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Old 06-07-2014, 03:44 PM   #74
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No one was around to record anything.
You did get my point, good fro you.
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Old 06-07-2014, 03:48 PM   #75
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The fact that you don't think scientists have methods to determine temperature and ice volume changes from hundreds of thousands of years before thermometers were invented tells me you don't know a damn thing about science. I know that they can, and I'm not even a scientist.
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