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Old 06-09-2014, 03:46 PM  
Direckshun Direckshun is offline
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Cap and trade has had no major suppression of growth for any state that's tried it.

And this is why you have to embrace federalism. Use the states as labs for policy experiments, and see what comes out. It worked out with Romneycare turning into the Affordable Care Act. And now it seems to be working out for the Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative, a pact signed by nine northeastern states to embrace cap and trade in 2009.

Since 2009, all nine states have enjoyed better economic growth than the other 41. Debunking the idea that this would, therefore, be a job-killing proposal.

Now, it's not solid proof that cap and trade is an economy-booster, nor is it proof that cap and trade has zero downside to an economy.

What it does prove is that cap and trade's effect on the economy of every single state that's tried it is marginal. At best.

And, oh yeah, let's not forget it's been very effective at reducing carbon emissions.

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/06/06/up...owth.html?_r=0

Best of Both Worlds? Northeast Cut Emissions and Enjoyed Growth
Hannah Fairfield
6/6/14

Some critics of the Environmental Protection Agency’s new requirements for power plants argue that forcing emissions reduction will curtail economic growth. But the recent experience of states that already cap carbon emissions reveals that emissions and economic growth are no longer tightly tied together.

One of the ways that states will be able to meet the new E.P.A. standards is by joining a Northeastern cap-and-trade program known as the Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative, which first put in a carbon cap in 2009. In a cap-and-trade system, the government places a ceiling on total carbon emissions and issues permits for those emissions, which companies can buy and sell from one another.

The nine states already in the program — Connecticut, Delaware, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, New York, Rhode Island and Vermont — have substantially reduced their carbon emissions in recent years. At the same time, those states have had stronger economic growth than the rest of the country.

Historically, the demand for electricity was closely tied to growth in the economy; only recently have the two decoupled.

These nine states had large emissions drops even before the program began in 2009, in part because the recession and warmer winters lowered the demand for power. The states also began switching to natural gas power, retiring coal units, and adding wind and solar energy generation. As the economy recovered, participation in the program spurred the states to find ways to meet the increasing demand for power without driving up emissions.

Since 2009, the nine states have cut their emissions by 18 percent, while their economies grew by 9.2 percent. By comparison, emissions in the other 41 states fell by 4 percent, while their economies grew by 8.8 percent.

The states in the program “were able to reduce emissions faster and more efficiently than was previously assumed,” said Peter Shattuck, director of market initiatives at ENE, a research and advocacy group based in Boston. “It was encouraging to see how quickly they hit the targets.”

Capping carbon emissions could still slow economic growth, and it is possible that the nine states that joined the cap-and-trade program would have had even better economic growth without the program. These states have more nuclear and natural-gas energy in their portfolios than do many other states; other states that depend primarily on coal power may not be able to reduce emissions as swiftly.

But the results in the nine states suggest that the effect of the cap-and-trade program on growth was, at most, modest. The sharp cut in emissions in the Northeast did not prevent the economy there from doing just as well as elsewhere.

Joining the Northeast cap-and-trade program, or another similar program in California that began in 2013, is one of many ways states can reach the new goals the E.P.A. has set. Other options include taking a series of individual steps — such as upgrading older power plants and expanding nuclear, wind and solar power generation — without a statewide cap. The states themselves will decide exactly how they will meet the goals set for them.

Economists have long praised cap-and-trade programs, compared with detailed mandates from regulators, because they create a market in which businesses are responsible for finding the cheapest way to comply with the regulation. Businesses that devise less expensive ways to reduce pollution can sell their permits to those that cannot change their habits so easily.

The administration of President George H.W. Bush began the original cap-and-trade program in the United States, for emissions related to acid rain. It is considered a major success, with sharp reductions in acid rain at little economic cost.
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Old 06-10-2014, 10:49 AM   #16
Direckshun Direckshun is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by lawrenceRaider View Post
No, the argument was that using warmer than normal winters as your base of logic is faulty. Also not going to work in states where coal is king due to the voting base that relies upon coal for jobs.
Again, the OP is about the economic impacts of cap and trade, not its political popularity.

And I am not understanding the stuff on warm winters -- I will need that explained to me.

The point being made here is that cap and trade is not the job killer that conservatives tout it as, since the states adopting it have had growth surpassing that of the country as a whole.
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Old 06-10-2014, 10:50 AM   #17
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Direckshun must have received a new subsidy or government handout. His posting volume has picked up lately.


I've been posting more regularly for two days, but thanks for noticing.
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Old 06-10-2014, 10:52 AM   #18
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Old 06-10-2014, 11:33 AM   #19
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Direckshun View Post
Again, the OP is about the economic impacts of cap and trade, not its political popularity.

And I am not understanding the stuff on warm winters -- I will need that explained to me.

The point being made here is that cap and trade is not the job killer that conservatives tout it as, since the states adopting it have had growth surpassing that of the country as a whole.
I am not staunchly against cap and trade as I see it as better than the alternative of EPA micromanagement... but this article is complete dogshit that only a partisan buffoon like Direckshun would see value in.

#1 check your sources. I don't generally take my economic advice from a GRAPHICS person at the Times. Yes, the author, Hannah Fairfield, is a graphics editor.

#2 Does anyone actually believe that Connecticut or New York or whatever other shit economies she trots out from the Northeast are doing better than states like Texas or Tennessee or the Carolinas even.

I have no clue if cap and trade has a significant economic effect but this fluff article is completely useless to the discussion.
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Old 06-11-2014, 05:04 PM   #20
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Quote:
Originally Posted by AustinChief View Post
I am not staunchly against cap and trade as I see it as better than the alternative of EPA micromanagement... but this article is complete dogshit that only a partisan buffoon like Direckshun would see value in.

#1 check your sources. I don't generally take my economic advice from a GRAPHICS person at the Times. Yes, the author, Hannah Fairfield, is a graphics editor.
Fair point, I suppose. Her article remains factually accurate, however.

Quote:
Originally Posted by AustinChief View Post
#2 Does anyone actually believe that Connecticut or New York or whatever other shit economies she trots out from the Northeast are doing better than states like Texas or Tennessee or the Carolinas even.
The article isn't arguing that the northeast is seeing more growth than any of those states, specifically. That wasn't a claim made in the article.

The claim made, and is factually true, is that the northeast is experiencing more growth than the rest of the country. Again, that's factually true.

And every single one of those states has signed on to a cap-and-trade bill.

So the argument goes -- that a cap-and-trade law would be some sort of drag on the country's economy, so far, is without any actual support. The evidence points to the opposite being true.
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Old 06-11-2014, 06:29 PM   #21
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Direckshun View Post
Fair point, I suppose. Her article remains factually accurate, however.



The article isn't arguing that the northeast is seeing more growth than any of those states, specifically. That wasn't a claim made in the article.

The claim made, and is factually true, is that the northeast is experiencing more growth than the rest of the country. Again, that's factually true.

And every single one of those states has signed on to a cap-and-trade bill.

So the argument goes -- that a cap-and-trade law would be some sort of drag on the country's economy, so far, is without any actual support. The evidence points to the opposite being true.
I disagree that the "evidence"points that way. I could believe it if I saw something resembling evidence.. this isn't it.

You make the mistake of claiming that the Northeast is better off than the rest of the US. The problem with this data is that it's based on gross product. A much much better metric for this discussion would be to look at job/company migrations. I would be very surprised if these 9 states would look very good then. BUT the people who are against cap and trade can't point to that as proof of their stance either since there are a myriad of factors that cause companies to leave shithole states like these.

You may actually be correct on this issue, I have no basis to say otherwise... but this superficial "analysis" doesn't prove your point. It's about what i would expect from a graphics editor... all show on the surface and no depth.
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Old 06-11-2014, 06:44 PM   #22
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Originally Posted by AustinChief View Post
I disagree that the "evidence"points that way. I could believe it if I saw something resembling evidence.. this isn't it.

You make the mistake of claiming that the Northeast is better off than the rest of the US. The problem with this data is that it's based on gross product. A much much better metric for this discussion would be to look at job/company migrations. I would be very surprised if these 9 states would look very good then. BUT the people who are against cap and trade can't point to that as proof of their stance either since there are a myriad of factors that cause companies to leave shithole states like these.

You may actually be correct on this issue, I have no basis to say otherwise... but this superficial "analysis" doesn't prove your point. It's about what i would expect from a graphics editor... all show on the surface and no depth.
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Old 06-11-2014, 09:48 PM   #23
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Originally Posted by AustinChief View Post
I disagree that the "evidence"points that way. I could believe it if I saw something resembling evidence.. this isn't it.

You make the mistake of claiming that the Northeast is better off than the rest of the US. The problem with this data is that it's based on gross product. A much much better metric for this discussion would be to look at job/company migrations. I would be very surprised if these 9 states would look very good then. BUT the people who are against cap and trade can't point to that as proof of their stance either since there are a myriad of factors that cause companies to leave shithole states like these.

You may actually be correct on this issue, I have no basis to say otherwise... but this superficial "analysis" doesn't prove your point. It's about what i would expect from a graphics editor... all show on the surface and no depth.
From my OP:

Quote:
Originally Posted by Direckshun View Post
Now, it's not solid proof that cap and trade is an economy-booster, nor is it proof that cap and trade has zero downside to an economy.
What you need to start doing is responding to the argument that is being presented, not constructing strawmen to knock down. I know we're relatively close on this issue, so we don't need to erect unnecessary barriers to having an honest conversation.

The fact that every single state that's embraced cap-and-trade has experienced zero economic blowback isn't proof that cap-and-trade has a negatory effect on the economy, but it's obviously evidence for the case.

That evidence comes in the form of GDP growth, which, again, has been more substantial for these states than it has been for the country at large.

Even if you claim that GDP isn't what's truly important, but jobs and businesses relocating, GDP growth highly correlates (one could easily argue it causes) both phenoema. Economies with more growth are more likely to reap more businesses and more jobs.

Therefore, it is evidence. You can debate how substantial that evidence is, but I'd say a GDP growth success rate of 100% is pretty damn substantial.
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Old 06-12-2014, 03:00 PM   #24
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RGGI's cap of 165m tons was never approached by actual emissions. The recession and cheap natural gas ensured that the carbon price never went high enough to force the demand destruction a cap and trade scheme is designed to produce. RGGI just lowered their cap to 91m tons so we'll see how the NE's economy does under this lower cap.
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Old 06-12-2014, 03:04 PM   #25
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So "employment growth" appears to assume a new normal of low employment under the Obama recession and proposes any growth from there constitutes growth. Can't get over the high bar? Then lower the bar.
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Old 06-12-2014, 03:08 PM   #26
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In fact, in 2009 when RGGI went into effect emissions among RGGI states was just over 100 tons. In 2010 emissions peaked at about 120 tons and have gone down ever since. The RGGI cap was 165 tons. As pointed out, emissions in the NE never tested the cap and therefor the market forces designed to kick in to create demand destruction through high prices never kicked in. Ergo, the entire thread title and premise of the article is ****ed. Cap and Trade didn't work. It didn't not work either. It wasn't used. Let's see what happens going forward since the RGGI states emissions are currently above the new cap of 91 tons/yr.

Face it Direck. You drank the Kool Aid and got busted. Again.
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Old 06-12-2014, 03:20 PM   #27
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Quote:
Originally Posted by RaiderH8r View Post
In fact, in 2009 when RGGI went into effect emissions among RGGI states was just over 100 tons. In 2010 emissions peaked at about 120 tons and have gone down ever since. The RGGI cap was 165 tons. As pointed out, emissions in the NE never tested the cap and therefor the market forces designed to kick in to create demand destruction through high prices never kicked in. Ergo, the entire thread title and premise of the article is ****ed. Cap and Trade didn't work. It didn't not work either. It wasn't used. Let's see what happens going forward since the RGGI states emissions are currently above the new cap of 91 tons/yr.

Face it Direck. You drank the Kool Aid and got busted. Again.
There is no koolaid involved he is trolling nothing more nothing less. He get his rocks off posting stupid shit to piss people off. It is a game to this worthless shitbag
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Old 06-12-2014, 04:38 PM   #28
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Old 06-12-2014, 06:20 PM   #29
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Quote:
Originally Posted by RaiderH8r View Post
In fact, in 2009 when RGGI went into effect emissions among RGGI states was just over 100 tons. In 2010 emissions peaked at about 120 tons and have gone down ever since. The RGGI cap was 165 tons. As pointed out, emissions in the NE never tested the cap and therefor the market forces designed to kick in to create demand destruction through high prices never kicked in. Ergo, the entire thread title and premise of the article is ****ed. Cap and Trade didn't work. It didn't not work either. It wasn't used. Let's see what happens going forward since the RGGI states emissions are currently above the new cap of 91 tons/yr.

Face it Direck. You drank the Kool Aid and got busted. Again.
That had to hurt.
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Old 06-13-2014, 10:06 AM   #30
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Quote:
Originally Posted by RaiderH8r View Post
RGGI's cap of 165m tons was never approached by actual emissions. The recession and cheap natural gas ensured that the carbon price never went high enough to force the demand destruction a cap and trade scheme is designed to produce. RGGI just lowered their cap to 91m tons so we'll see how the NE's economy does under this lower cap.
It'll definitely be worth watching.
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