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Old 06-12-2014, 10:29 AM  
Direckshun Direckshun is offline
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Jobs are opening up like crazy, but companies aren't really hiring.

This is a super interesting trend that I'd like your guys thoughts on.

Right now, we've reached a seemingly positive development, where there are now just 2.2 unemployed folks for every job opening. This is a really good spike over the past couple years -- yet companies are extremely hesitant to hire.

The question is, why?

My theory is two-fold, and perhaps you guys can offer your own theories.

1. Companies have jacked up the expected productivity of their workers to such a ridiculous extent that even though job openings are technically presenting themselves, companies aren't feeling the need to fill them. The ridiculous rise in productivity without a subsequent rise in wages has allowed companies to get more out of each employee for less.

2. Companies have trillions of dollars sitting in their coffers that they simply haven't invested since the recession hit. Companies cut tons of workers, went into extreme austerity, and now that the economy has come out of the recession and their sheets show them deep in the black, they simply haven't invested it like they normally would have prior to the recession. And this can be borne out in the (non-)hiring trends.

Thoughts?

http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/f...g-a-job-hasnt/

Finding a Job Opening Has Gotten Easier, But Getting a Job Hasn’t
By Ben Casselman
1:27 PMJun 10



Companies posted more job openings in April. Now if only they’d fill them.

There were 4.5 million jobs available in the U.S. at the end of April, the most since August 2007, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported Tuesday. Job postings are up 16.5 percent over the past year and have more than doubled since their 2009 low.

Actual hiring, however, is a different story. Hires were essentially flat in April and are up less than 6 percent over the past year. This has been a persistent pattern in the recovery, as the above chart shows.

One reason for the faster rebound in openings is that they fell further during the recession; companies pulled back on posting jobs even more than they did on hiring. But that isn’t the whole story. The ratio of hires to openings, which spiked during the recession, has fallen steadily through the recovery and is now below normal levels. That suggests companies aren’t filling available jobs at their usual pace.



(An important note on this chart: The BLS reports hires and openings differently. Openings are counted at a moment in time — the number of jobs available at the end of the month — while hires are a total for the whole month. So a one-to-one hires-to-openings ratio doesn’t mean every job was filled, because some jobs get posted and filled within a month, and therefore never show up in the data. So pay attention to the trend, not the absolute numbers.)

It isn’t clear what’s behind that reluctance to hire. Many employers, particularly in industries such as construction, blame a shortage of workers with the necessary skills. Some economists, meanwhile, argue that companies are struggling to fill jobs because there are fewer available workers than the 6.3 percent unemployment rate might suggest. But there’s reason for skepticism about both claims: Wage growth remains anemic (though that may, at last, be changing), which suggests employers aren’t being forced to pay more to attract workers.

The most likely explanation remains the simplest: the weak recovery. Companies are seeing more demand for their products, so they’re posting job openings, but that demand isn’t yet strong enough for them to fill those positions quickly. They’re content to wait for the perfect candidate to show up. (In economics jargon, companies’ “recruiting intensity” remains low, as it has been throughout the recovery.)

The good news for the unemployed is that more openings means more chances to land a job. There were 2.2 jobseekers for every available position in April, the best ratio since before the recession began. But those openings don’t mean much if companies won’t fill them.

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Old 06-12-2014, 11:54 AM   #16
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Originally Posted by Direckshun View Post
If businesses were somehow able to hire all 4.5 million jobs, the employment rate would fall to 3.4%. No shit.
see post #9
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Old 06-12-2014, 11:56 AM   #17
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Hiring people is what I do for a living. Lack of qualified candidates is #1 for sure. Companies aren't going to train people these days. You need to have this, that and the other just to get a phone screen.

Pay is another issue but not usually at the level I deal with. For some reason people come out of college expecting $60k. I'm not sure who's telling them this but those expectations need to be adjusted earlier in the process. I'm guessing that it's the schools that are selling them on the idea of getting a degree. Only 10% of the position I work on (Fortune 100 company) require a degree and it's usually because the hiring manager spent a fortune on an MBA and only wants people like them.
Yes you are exactly right about the schools. They are making non experienced graduates believe they will walk off that stage and have multiple hiring managers waiting right there to hire them. For a job that starts the following Monday that pays 60K with a 10K signing bonus, 4 weeks of vacation, 10 days of sick leave, and company paid lunches every day. Yes that is a bit of an exaggeration but the colleges are feeding the students unrealistic expectations. Especially those with little to no real world experience in their chosen field.
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Old 06-12-2014, 12:27 PM   #18
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As long as productivity keeps pace there isn't really a need in the eyes of a lot of employers to hire. You have to look at the current environment and question why they would want to hire:

1. Employees are working longer for less
2. Benefits such as 401k matches and such have been cut
3. Raises and bonuses are non-existant
4. 10 people are lined up to replace the person that doesn't like the above 3
5. People put up with #'s 1-3 because of #4
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Old 06-12-2014, 12:35 PM   #19
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Old 06-12-2014, 12:37 PM   #20
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Originally Posted by blaise View Post
"It's companies holding Obama back. He would be a massive success if people weren't just working against him."

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Old 06-12-2014, 12:42 PM   #21
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I forgot that is what you do. What field do you work in?
I specialize in building sales teams and the operations teams that support them on the back-end.

I get a lot of sales openings where they only want candidates that have the exact same industry experience and who have previously sold into a target account that they want. These often require a huge increase in pay in order to get the person to jump and 7 times out of 10 they're gone before their first anniversary but hiring manager love the idea of making the same mistake 12 times.
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Old 06-12-2014, 12:47 PM   #22
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Many large corporations keep "open" jobs on the books. It is easier to budget and plan for a position you will end up not needing/filling thank creating a new position during a fiscal year. A lot of times when companies such as Sprint say they are eliminating 500 jobs...that doesn't always mean 500 people are actually being fired. Those "open" positions are just being taken off the books to shift the money.
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Old 06-12-2014, 12:48 PM   #23
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Originally Posted by petegz28 View Post
As long as productivity keeps pace there isn't really a need in the eyes of a lot of employers to hire. You have to look at the current environment and question why they would want to hire:

1. Employees are working longer for less
2. Benefits such as 401k matches and such have been cut
3. Raises and bonuses are non-existant
4. 10 people are lined up to replace the person that doesn't like the above 3
5. People put up with #'s 1-3 because of #4
I used to be really against unions but I am getting to the point where I think they are inevitable for most jobs.
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Old 06-12-2014, 12:48 PM   #24
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Quote:
Originally Posted by petegz28 View Post
As long as productivity keeps pace there isn't really a need in the eyes of a lot of employers to hire. You have to look at the current environment and question why they would want to hire:

1. Employees are working longer for less
2. Benefits such as 401k matches and such have been cut
3. Raises and bonuses are non-existant
4. 10 people are lined up to replace the person that doesn't like the above 3
5. People put up with #'s 1-3 because of #4
That nails it.
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Old 06-12-2014, 12:51 PM   #25
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*Anecdotal evidence here*

My company is owned by two private equity firms and some of our executives. We are as lean as can be and could probably benefit from some additional hires. For the amount of AUM that our firm has, we operate with about half the staff (on a size adjusted basis) as comparable firms.

We have been picking up the hiring in many areas, but could use additional help for my boss and I (which we won't get because we're getting the job done now).
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Old 06-12-2014, 12:52 PM   #26
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Old 06-12-2014, 12:55 PM   #27
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Mojo Jojo View Post
Many large corporations keep "open" jobs on the books. It is easier to budget and plan for a position you will end up not needing/filling thank creating a new position during a fiscal year. A lot of times when companies such as Sprint say they are eliminating 500 jobs...that doesn't always mean 500 people are actually being fired. Those "open" positions are just being taken off the books to shift the money.
This too. My company is pretty small (aprox. 200-500 home office employees and 3500-4500 field advisors). We have several openings listed that aren't actively being recruited, but could be filled if a manager has to have someone.
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Old 06-12-2014, 01:06 PM   #28
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Originally Posted by WhawhaWhat View Post
I used to be really against unions but I am getting to the point where I think they are inevitable for most jobs.
and what will the union do?

Let's ask the auto industry, airline industry, coal industry, Hostess Twinkie, and certain there are many others.
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Old 06-12-2014, 01:07 PM   #29
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Does Direkshun think that Wal Mart employs everyone in the country?

Geezus. This seems to be a liberal thing where every business owner is is viewed as sitting on a few trillion dollars. Thats, you know, not how it actually is.
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Old 06-12-2014, 01:17 PM   #30
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Originally Posted by WhawhaWhat View Post
I used to be really against unions but I am getting to the point where I think they are inevitable for most jobs.
In an ideal world, Unions would only help 2 and 3.. And make item three dependent solely on tenure rather than performance.

All that and it still wouldn't help hiring
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