Home Mail MemberMap Chat (0) Wallpapers
Go Back   ChiefsPlanet > The Royal Lounge > D.C.

View Poll Results: When will the Stock Market Crash.
Within a week-get out now!! 2 12.50%
Within 2-3 weeks. 0 0%
By the end of summer. 1 6.25%
By the end of fall-after the back to school sales. 2 12.50%
Before Christmas-just in time to ruin the holdiay. 1 6.25%
Most likely January when businesses already are hurting for sales. 5 31.25%
It won't crash-too much money pouring in to prop up the market. 6 37.50%
Multiple Choice Poll. Voters: 16. You may not vote on this poll

Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
Old 07-10-2014, 05:27 PM  
Halfcan Halfcan is offline
Queen Anne's Revenge!
 
Halfcan's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2005
Location: Independence, Missouri
Casino cash: $7240
When will the stock market crash again?

Most every stock worth something is either at its all time high or getting close.

Today was a minor 1 % correction on fears of a bank in Portugal crashing. If that is making investors jittery - stories of the old buzzard Carl Icahn -who loves to pick the bones of corporate carcasses- warning that the market is over valued- won't help much.

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/exclus...200312212.html

Even some are already predicting (hoping) for a major market crash- most likely to discount shop after most investors are fleeced of their 401k's again.

http://www.cnbc.com/id/101823798?__s...sh,%20just%20d


So when will it happen?

Last edited by Halfcan; 07-10-2014 at 05:33 PM..
Posts: 24,493
Halfcan is blessed with 50/50 Hindsight.Halfcan is blessed with 50/50 Hindsight.Halfcan is blessed with 50/50 Hindsight.Halfcan is blessed with 50/50 Hindsight.Halfcan is blessed with 50/50 Hindsight.Halfcan is blessed with 50/50 Hindsight.Halfcan is blessed with 50/50 Hindsight.Halfcan is blessed with 50/50 Hindsight.Halfcan is blessed with 50/50 Hindsight.Halfcan is blessed with 50/50 Hindsight.Halfcan is blessed with 50/50 Hindsight.
  Reply With Quote
Old 07-11-2014, 09:17 AM   #16
KC native KC native is online now
a toda madre o un desmadre
 
KC native's Avatar
 

Join Date: Feb 2009
Location: Fort Worth, TX
Casino cash: $11270
Quote:
Originally Posted by banyon View Post
This being said, I have been at 100% bonds for
at least 6 months.
Holy **** man. I'm normally not one to tell people to sell something immediately, but sell them unless they're unconstrained bond funds (who get their risk exposure from credit, currency, and rates).

You're taking a tremendous amount of interest rate risk (duration). Everyone expected rates to go to start the year but they have grinded lower. You should have some decent gains but there's not much more on the table in terms of gains. Spreads have tightened and rates have gone down so prices have gone up.
__________________
The diameter of your knowledge is the circumference of your actions. Ras Kass

Quote:
Originally Posted by Iowanian View Post
I'm just a little pussy from Iowa
Posts: 18,047
KC native is too fat/Omaha.KC native is too fat/Omaha.KC native is too fat/Omaha.KC native is too fat/Omaha.KC native is too fat/Omaha.KC native is too fat/Omaha.KC native is too fat/Omaha.KC native is too fat/Omaha.KC native is too fat/Omaha.KC native is too fat/Omaha.KC native is too fat/Omaha.
  Reply With Quote
Old 07-11-2014, 09:19 AM   #17
KC native KC native is online now
a toda madre o un desmadre
 
KC native's Avatar
 

Join Date: Feb 2009
Location: Fort Worth, TX
Casino cash: $11270
Quote:
Originally Posted by Halfcan View Post
It is amazing to me- "investors" are paying the most ever paid for stocks with zero dividends- because they have a name brand.
If that brand's growth is above average/market then it makes sense.
__________________
The diameter of your knowledge is the circumference of your actions. Ras Kass

Quote:
Originally Posted by Iowanian View Post
I'm just a little pussy from Iowa
Posts: 18,047
KC native is too fat/Omaha.KC native is too fat/Omaha.KC native is too fat/Omaha.KC native is too fat/Omaha.KC native is too fat/Omaha.KC native is too fat/Omaha.KC native is too fat/Omaha.KC native is too fat/Omaha.KC native is too fat/Omaha.KC native is too fat/Omaha.KC native is too fat/Omaha.
  Reply With Quote
Old 07-11-2014, 09:20 AM   #18
KC native KC native is online now
a toda madre o un desmadre
 
KC native's Avatar
 

Join Date: Feb 2009
Location: Fort Worth, TX
Casino cash: $11270
Quote:
Originally Posted by Halfcan View Post
Most every stock worth something is either at its all time high or getting close.

Today was a minor 1 % correction on fears of a bank in Portugal crashing. If that is making investors jittery - stories of the old buzzard Carl Icahn -who loves to pick the bones of corporate carcasses- warning that the market is over valued- won't help much.

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/exclus...200312212.html

Even some are already predicting (hoping) for a major market crash- most likely to discount shop after most investors are fleeced of their 401k's again.

http://www.cnbc.com/id/101823798?__s...sh,%20just%20d


So when will it happen?
Also, define crash.

Are we talking a 10% correction (which we are over due for)? A 20% sell off? More?
__________________
The diameter of your knowledge is the circumference of your actions. Ras Kass

Quote:
Originally Posted by Iowanian View Post
I'm just a little pussy from Iowa
Posts: 18,047
KC native is too fat/Omaha.KC native is too fat/Omaha.KC native is too fat/Omaha.KC native is too fat/Omaha.KC native is too fat/Omaha.KC native is too fat/Omaha.KC native is too fat/Omaha.KC native is too fat/Omaha.KC native is too fat/Omaha.KC native is too fat/Omaha.KC native is too fat/Omaha.
  Reply With Quote
Old 07-11-2014, 09:38 AM   #19
LiveSteam LiveSteam is offline
All aboard the crazy train
 
LiveSteam's Avatar
 

Join Date: Dec 2009
Location: homeof43conferencetitles
Casino cash: $7431
Quote:
Originally Posted by Halfcan View Post
Stocks down again today- looks like a Red weekend.

Gold is heading up for all you gold hoarders.
Posts: 16,961
LiveSteam is obviously part of the inner Circle.LiveSteam is obviously part of the inner Circle.LiveSteam is obviously part of the inner Circle.LiveSteam is obviously part of the inner Circle.LiveSteam is obviously part of the inner Circle.LiveSteam is obviously part of the inner Circle.LiveSteam is obviously part of the inner Circle.LiveSteam is obviously part of the inner Circle.LiveSteam is obviously part of the inner Circle.LiveSteam is obviously part of the inner Circle.LiveSteam is obviously part of the inner Circle.
  Reply With Quote
Old 07-11-2014, 11:32 AM   #20
LoneWolf LoneWolf is offline
BAMF
 
LoneWolf's Avatar
 

Join Date: Oct 2010
Location: Wichita
Casino cash: $8792
Quote:
Originally Posted by Halfcan View Post
Most every stock worth something is either at its all time high or getting close.

Today was a minor 1 % correction on fears of a bank in Portugal crashing. If that is making investors jittery - stories of the old buzzard Carl Icahn -who loves to pick the bones of corporate carcasses- warning that the market is over valued- won't help much.

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/exclus...200312212.html

Even some are already predicting (hoping) for a major market crash- most likely to discount shop after most investors are fleeced of their 401k's again.

http://www.cnbc.com/id/101823798?__s...sh,%20just%20d


So when will it happen?
Only the people that moved their investments from stocks to bonds were "fleeced" of anything in their 401k. Anyone who didn't panic and let everything ride has made any losses back plus a decent percentage increase. The stock market/401k is a chess game not checkers.
__________________
Quote:
Originally Posted by Chiefs Pantalones View Post
If we win 8 games I'll post a nude selfie.
Posts: 5,576
LoneWolf has enough rep power to blowy ou to bits.LoneWolf has enough rep power to blowy ou to bits.LoneWolf has enough rep power to blowy ou to bits.LoneWolf has enough rep power to blowy ou to bits.LoneWolf has enough rep power to blowy ou to bits.LoneWolf has enough rep power to blowy ou to bits.LoneWolf has enough rep power to blowy ou to bits.LoneWolf has enough rep power to blowy ou to bits.LoneWolf has enough rep power to blowy ou to bits.LoneWolf has enough rep power to blowy ou to bits.LoneWolf has enough rep power to blowy ou to bits.
  Reply With Quote
Old 07-12-2014, 12:45 AM   #21
Dayze Dayze is offline
Resident Glue Sniffer
 
Dayze's Avatar
 

Join Date: Nov 2003
Location: Overland Park
Casino cash: $10456
we just cashed out our 401ks.
we didn't have hardly anything in there. but are preparing for the doom.


j/k....we pulled the cash because of yet another lay off and absolutely needed to do so to re-arrange things in our lives so we can afford to live. in 2008, I lost about 75% of my 401k in a one month span....so yeah, that was pretty awesome.
__________________
Life is 99% inspiration, 1% Perspiration, and 1% Attention to Detial.
Posts: 26,190
Dayze is obviously part of the inner Circle.Dayze is obviously part of the inner Circle.Dayze is obviously part of the inner Circle.Dayze is obviously part of the inner Circle.Dayze is obviously part of the inner Circle.Dayze is obviously part of the inner Circle.Dayze is obviously part of the inner Circle.Dayze is obviously part of the inner Circle.Dayze is obviously part of the inner Circle.Dayze is obviously part of the inner Circle.Dayze is obviously part of the inner Circle.
  Reply With Quote
Old 07-12-2014, 12:47 AM   #22
Discuss Thrower Discuss Thrower is online now
<3 <3 <3 <3 <3
 
Discuss Thrower's Avatar
 

Join Date: Jun 2006
Location: No, where do YOU live?
Casino cash: $12472
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dayze View Post
we just cashed out our 401ks.
we didn't have hardly anything in there. but are preparing for the doom.


j/k....we pulled the cash because of yet another lay off and absolutely needed to do so to re-arrange things in our lives so we can afford to live. in 2008, I lost about 75% of my 401k in a one month span....so yeah, that was pretty awesome.
Jesus.. you got laid off again? You need to start gathering blackmail material on your bosses or something bro.
__________________

- credit goes to BoneKrusher for the pic

Chiefs 2015 Opponents:
Home: CLE, PIT, CHI, DET, AFC East. Away: BAL, CIN, GB, MIN, AFC South
Chiefs 2016 Opponents:
Home: JAX, TEN, NO, TB, AFC East. Away: HOU, IND, ATL, CAR, AFC North
Chiefs 2017 Opponents:
Home: BUF, MIA, PHI, WSH, AFC North. Away: NE, NYJ, NYG, DAL, AFC South
Posts: 12,246
Discuss Thrower 's phone was tapped by Scott Pioli.Discuss Thrower 's phone was tapped by Scott Pioli.Discuss Thrower 's phone was tapped by Scott Pioli.Discuss Thrower 's phone was tapped by Scott Pioli.Discuss Thrower 's phone was tapped by Scott Pioli.Discuss Thrower 's phone was tapped by Scott Pioli.Discuss Thrower 's phone was tapped by Scott Pioli.Discuss Thrower 's phone was tapped by Scott Pioli.Discuss Thrower 's phone was tapped by Scott Pioli.Discuss Thrower 's phone was tapped by Scott Pioli.Discuss Thrower 's phone was tapped by Scott Pioli.
  Reply With Quote
Old 07-12-2014, 12:58 AM   #23
Direckshun Direckshun is offline
Black for Palestine
 
Direckshun's Avatar
 

Join Date: Oct 2006
Location: Springpatch
Casino cash: $12651
I think there will be another bubble bursting in about 10 years if we don't do more to make student loans manageable.
__________________
Posts: 45,064
Direckshun is obviously part of the inner Circle.Direckshun is obviously part of the inner Circle.Direckshun is obviously part of the inner Circle.Direckshun is obviously part of the inner Circle.Direckshun is obviously part of the inner Circle.Direckshun is obviously part of the inner Circle.Direckshun is obviously part of the inner Circle.Direckshun is obviously part of the inner Circle.Direckshun is obviously part of the inner Circle.Direckshun is obviously part of the inner Circle.Direckshun is obviously part of the inner Circle.
  Reply With Quote
Old 07-12-2014, 09:15 PM   #24
Dayze Dayze is offline
Resident Glue Sniffer
 
Dayze's Avatar
 

Join Date: Nov 2003
Location: Overland Park
Casino cash: $10456
Quote:
Originally Posted by Discuss Thrower View Post
Jesus.. you got laid off again? You need to start gathering blackmail material on your bosses or something bro.
lol. yeah. Project based work blows Though I have a non-project job interview on Tuesday, so that's great news. Sooooo ready to get out project based workd.
__________________
Life is 99% inspiration, 1% Perspiration, and 1% Attention to Detial.
Posts: 26,190
Dayze is obviously part of the inner Circle.Dayze is obviously part of the inner Circle.Dayze is obviously part of the inner Circle.Dayze is obviously part of the inner Circle.Dayze is obviously part of the inner Circle.Dayze is obviously part of the inner Circle.Dayze is obviously part of the inner Circle.Dayze is obviously part of the inner Circle.Dayze is obviously part of the inner Circle.Dayze is obviously part of the inner Circle.Dayze is obviously part of the inner Circle.
  Reply With Quote
Old 07-14-2014, 11:21 AM   #25
Halfcan Halfcan is offline
Queen Anne's Revenge!
 
Halfcan's Avatar
 

Join Date: Aug 2005
Location: Independence, Missouri
Casino cash: $7240
Quote:
Originally Posted by KC native View Post
Also, define crash.

Are we talking a 10% correction (which we are over due for)? A 20% sell off? More?
Even 10% would cause a lot of panic. Something huge would have to happen for 20% or more imo- but more "experts" are predicting doom.

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/indivi...083111149.html
Posts: 24,493
Halfcan is blessed with 50/50 Hindsight.Halfcan is blessed with 50/50 Hindsight.Halfcan is blessed with 50/50 Hindsight.Halfcan is blessed with 50/50 Hindsight.Halfcan is blessed with 50/50 Hindsight.Halfcan is blessed with 50/50 Hindsight.Halfcan is blessed with 50/50 Hindsight.Halfcan is blessed with 50/50 Hindsight.Halfcan is blessed with 50/50 Hindsight.Halfcan is blessed with 50/50 Hindsight.Halfcan is blessed with 50/50 Hindsight.
  Reply With Quote
Old 07-14-2014, 11:27 AM   #26
Halfcan Halfcan is offline
Queen Anne's Revenge!
 
Halfcan's Avatar
 

Join Date: Aug 2005
Location: Independence, Missouri
Casino cash: $7240
Quote:
Originally Posted by LoneWolf View Post
Only the people that moved their investments from stocks to bonds were "fleeced" of anything in their 401k. Anyone who didn't panic and let everything ride has made any losses back plus a decent percentage increase. The stock market/401k is a chess game not checkers.
That game is much harder for small investors. Having a major player like Street or an Investment company downgrade a stock can send it into a free fall. That is why I am looking for high dividend paying companies.

The new American oil boom is practically printing money. U.S passed Saudi and Russia in oil production this month- but oil prices have went up?

I just bought Legacy- today. Looks to be a solid earner and big Div. Payer.


http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=lgcy

also own Linn Co. and Breitburn Energy so far.
Posts: 24,493
Halfcan is blessed with 50/50 Hindsight.Halfcan is blessed with 50/50 Hindsight.Halfcan is blessed with 50/50 Hindsight.Halfcan is blessed with 50/50 Hindsight.Halfcan is blessed with 50/50 Hindsight.Halfcan is blessed with 50/50 Hindsight.Halfcan is blessed with 50/50 Hindsight.Halfcan is blessed with 50/50 Hindsight.Halfcan is blessed with 50/50 Hindsight.Halfcan is blessed with 50/50 Hindsight.Halfcan is blessed with 50/50 Hindsight.
  Reply With Quote
Old 07-14-2014, 11:31 AM   #27
Halfcan Halfcan is offline
Queen Anne's Revenge!
 
Halfcan's Avatar
 

Join Date: Aug 2005
Location: Independence, Missouri
Casino cash: $7240
Quote:
Originally Posted by banyon View Post
This being said, I have been at 100% bonds for
at least 6 months.
Many are pulling out of bonds-maybe now is the time to buy? I will probably get into a couple of bond funds to level off my risk a little.


http://finance.yahoo.com/blogs/talki...225700066.html
Posts: 24,493
Halfcan is blessed with 50/50 Hindsight.Halfcan is blessed with 50/50 Hindsight.Halfcan is blessed with 50/50 Hindsight.Halfcan is blessed with 50/50 Hindsight.Halfcan is blessed with 50/50 Hindsight.Halfcan is blessed with 50/50 Hindsight.Halfcan is blessed with 50/50 Hindsight.Halfcan is blessed with 50/50 Hindsight.Halfcan is blessed with 50/50 Hindsight.Halfcan is blessed with 50/50 Hindsight.Halfcan is blessed with 50/50 Hindsight.
  Reply With Quote
Old 07-14-2014, 11:45 AM   #28
KC native KC native is online now
a toda madre o un desmadre
 
KC native's Avatar
 

Join Date: Feb 2009
Location: Fort Worth, TX
Casino cash: $11270
Quote:
Originally Posted by Halfcan View Post
Even 10% would cause a lot of panic. Something huge would have to happen for 20% or more imo- but more "experts" are predicting doom.

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/indivi...083111149.html
10% sell offs are part of a healthy market and happen quite regularly. We've been quite awhile without one so you're going to see a lot of calls for it to happen.

And predictions should be taken with a grain of salt.
__________________
The diameter of your knowledge is the circumference of your actions. Ras Kass

Quote:
Originally Posted by Iowanian View Post
I'm just a little pussy from Iowa
Posts: 18,047
KC native is too fat/Omaha.KC native is too fat/Omaha.KC native is too fat/Omaha.KC native is too fat/Omaha.KC native is too fat/Omaha.KC native is too fat/Omaha.KC native is too fat/Omaha.KC native is too fat/Omaha.KC native is too fat/Omaha.KC native is too fat/Omaha.KC native is too fat/Omaha.
  Reply With Quote
Old 07-14-2014, 11:49 AM   #29
KC native KC native is online now
a toda madre o un desmadre
 
KC native's Avatar
 

Join Date: Feb 2009
Location: Fort Worth, TX
Casino cash: $11270
Quote:
Originally Posted by Halfcan View Post
Even 10% would cause a lot of panic. Something huge would have to happen for 20% or more imo- but more "experts" are predicting doom.

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/indivi...083111149.html
And funny you linked that article (I didn't read it before my response).

http://www.bloombergview.com/article...k-you-re-worse
Quote:
Pro Forecasters Stink, You're Worse

This morning, I want to direct your attention to a Bloomberg News article titled ``Individuals Pile Into Stocks as Pros Say Bull Is Spent.'' It is a worthwhile read, but a bit of context is required.

The article notes that Main Street and Wall Street are allocating money in diametrically opposed ways:
Individual investors are plowing money back into the U.S. stock market just as professional strategists say gains for this year are over. About $100 billion has been added to equity mutual funds and exchange-traded funds in the past year, 10 times more than the previous 12 months, according to data compiled by Bloomberg and the Investment Company Institute.
At the same time, various big-name forecasters are predicting the “stock market will be stagnant.” They further observe “valuations are at four-year highs.”

Individuals pile into equities while the pros pull out? The knee-jerk response is to run for the hills, or Treasuries, or whatever your favored disaster trade might be.

Unfortunately, it is never quite that simple. A little bit of context explains why neither of these indicators is of much significance.

Let’s begin with the forecasting portion of our discussion. The abilities of strategists and economists to foresee the future run from merely horrible to embarrassingly foolish. Someone gets it right each year more or less at random, but there is little reason to put much faith in the predictions of the pros. As we discussed last week, expert forecasts are statistically indistinguishable from random guesses. And, there is little or no penalty for being wildly inaccurate.

The joke on trading desks was that the World Cup predictions from investment banks were meant to make their analysts’ calls look prescient.

Recall none of the pros forecasted last year's 30-percent-plus rally in the Standard & Poor's 500 Index. In the beginning of this year, all 72 economists surveyed by Bloomberg predicted higher rates and falling bonds. Treasuries have rallied about 10 percent so far this year as yields fell.

Now that we are reminded how awful the pros are in forecasting markets, are the individual investors any better? As it turns out, they are even worse. First, they chase performance, not value. At best, they are a lagging, not leading, indicator. Secondly, individuals don't move the needle very much. Money flows into equities have been negative for almost the entire rally since the March 2009 lows.

If we can't rely on strategists’ or economists’ forecasts, and individuals' trading is of no value as an indicator, what should we be looking at? I would suggest two areas worthy of your attention: Institutional flows and extremes in sentiment.

The day-to-day flows into retirement accounts, exchange-traded funds, pension funds and 401(k)s have been creating a fairly steady demand for equities. If and when that reverses, it will be much closer to the end of the bull cycle than the beginning.

Second, once individuals become enthusiastic equity investors once again, that will also be near the top. It would be the opposite of the capitulation we saw in March 2009, and would represent a buying climax. Be forewarned: It takes more than a few months of stock buying for that full-on exuberance to make an appearance. When former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan described the “irrational exuberance” of stocks investors in 1996, it took almost four more years until that climax was reached. If we even go half as long, we might see another year or two before small investors become too bullish.

Today, they are barely putting their toes back into the water. Draw your own conclusions.
__________________
The diameter of your knowledge is the circumference of your actions. Ras Kass

Quote:
Originally Posted by Iowanian View Post
I'm just a little pussy from Iowa
Posts: 18,047
KC native is too fat/Omaha.KC native is too fat/Omaha.KC native is too fat/Omaha.KC native is too fat/Omaha.KC native is too fat/Omaha.KC native is too fat/Omaha.KC native is too fat/Omaha.KC native is too fat/Omaha.KC native is too fat/Omaha.KC native is too fat/Omaha.KC native is too fat/Omaha.
  Reply With Quote
Old 07-14-2014, 11:55 AM   #30
KC native KC native is online now
a toda madre o un desmadre
 
KC native's Avatar
 

Join Date: Feb 2009
Location: Fort Worth, TX
Casino cash: $11270
Quote:
Originally Posted by Halfcan View Post
Many are pulling out of bonds-maybe now is the time to buy? I will probably get into a couple of bond funds to level off my risk a little.


http://finance.yahoo.com/blogs/talki...225700066.html
Now would be a terrible time to buy US bonds. The price of bonds and interest rates move in opposite directions. Since rates are close to the lows again (US 10 yr is at 2.55% as I type this), that means you're buying in at high prices. When rates do increase, you will have capital losses due to the decrease in market value of your bonds. Since coupons (the stated interest rate on the bond) are at lows, it takes even longer for the interest income to make up the market value loss.

An international bond fund that can invest in emerging market debt (or an international that can't paired with an emerging market debt fund) wouldn't be a terrible idea though as those managers can take advantage of higher interest rates across the globe.
__________________
The diameter of your knowledge is the circumference of your actions. Ras Kass

Quote:
Originally Posted by Iowanian View Post
I'm just a little pussy from Iowa
Posts: 18,047
KC native is too fat/Omaha.KC native is too fat/Omaha.KC native is too fat/Omaha.KC native is too fat/Omaha.KC native is too fat/Omaha.KC native is too fat/Omaha.KC native is too fat/Omaha.KC native is too fat/Omaha.KC native is too fat/Omaha.KC native is too fat/Omaha.KC native is too fat/Omaha.
  Reply With Quote
Reply

Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is On

Forum Jump




All times are GMT -6. The time now is 08:52 AM.


This is a test for a client's site.
A new website that shows member-created construction site listings that need fill or have excess fill. Dirt Monkey @ https://DirtMonkey.net
Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.0
Copyright ©2000 - 2014, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.